Chinese Views on the Trump Administration’s Asia Policy
Michael D. Swaine
Authoritative and non-authoritative Chinese commentaries on the Trump
administration’s foreign policy have tended to avoid making hostile
remarks in response to some notable U.S. provocations. This cautious
stance most likely reflects at least three factors. First, the Chinese now
recognize that presidential campaigns often produce aggressive rhetoric,
but a new administration eventually moderates its stance in the face of
practical constraints. Second, the upcoming 19th Party Congress in fall
2017 strongly indicates the need for Beijing to avoid taking any actions
that could generate a foreign policy crisis. Third, the Chinese probably
believe that Trump is ultimately someone who will take a pragmatic and
transactional approach toward the Sino-American relationship. The current
Chinese viewpoint, however, could darken considerably if Washington or
Beijing adopt confrontational stances toward sensitive and potentially
volatile foreign policy issues such as North Korea, Taiwan, or the South
China Sea.
In
CLM
50, we examined Chinese views on presidential candidates Hillary R. Clinton
and Donald J. Trump. In this issue, we take a close look at Chinese views toward
President Trump’s policies toward Asia and China. The period covered begins with
Trump’s election on November 8, 2016, and ends with the presidential summit between
President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping, held at Trump’s Mar-A-Lago resort
April 6–7.
As in previous
Monitor
articles, Chinese views in this essay are divided into authoritative
and non-authoritative statements and actions. Five main foreign policy subjects are
covered: 1) the state of overall current and future U.S.-China relations; 2) economic and
trade policy, especially involving China; 3) the Taiwan issue; 4) the ongoing North Korea
nuclear weapons crisis; and 5) maritime disputes in the South and East China Seas. The
article ends with an assessment of the main features and trends of those views and their
possible implications for the future.
Chinese Views and Statements
General Characterizations of Future and Current U.S.-China Relations under Trump
Overall, authoritative Chinese sources have been remarkably positive and upbeat in
assessing the current and future tenor of the bilateral relationship, with a few partial
exceptions.
*I am indebted to Benjamin Lee for his assistance in the preparation of this article.
Swaine,
China Leadership Monitor
, no. 53For example, following his election on November 8, senior Chinese officials gave no
indication of any tension, worries, or suspicions regarding candidate Donald Trump’s
often-negative campaign views of China.
A congratulatory message from Xi Jinping stated:
Attaching great importance to China-U.S. relations, I look forward to
working with you to, in the principle of non-conflict, non-confrontation,
mutual respect and win-win cooperation, expand bilateral cooperation in
all fields at bilateral, regional and global levels, manage and control
differences in a constructive way, push bilateral relations for greater
progress at a new starting point and better benefit the two peoples and
people of all countries.1
Variations on this statement have been made by authoritative sources many times since
then.2
In accentuating the positive, authoritative sources have at times stressed the unchanging,
foundational elements of U.S.-China relations in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s
election. These include “huge common interests,” mutual opportunities, popular
expectations in both countries of continued development, and expectations in the
international community for the two countries to “play a constructive role in maintaining
world peace, development, and stability.”3
Chinese optimism was arguably increased further when Secretary of State Rex Tillerson
repeated, while in Beijing, the above phrasing Beijing uses to describe the goals of the
relationship, involving the search for greater cooperation based on “no conflict, no
confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation.”4
And the apparent love-fest continued through the April 6–7 Mar-a-Lago summit.
Following that event, Wang Yi stated:
This summit has become a stabilizing force for U.S.-China relations as
well as a new opening for the bilateral relationship.5
In line with this approach, any problems in the relationship have been downplayed by
authoritative sources. For example, in responding to general questions regarding Trump’s
critical or hostile tweets about China, Foreign Ministry spokespersons have usually
avoided negative statements, stressing instead the need to continue working to deepen
mutual understanding and produce mutually beneficial results.6
Many non-authoritative sources have echoed the above optimistic take on U.S.-China
relations of authoritative sources, albeit at times with a more decidedly cautious note.
Indeed, one scholar remarked, right after Trump’s election:
Chinese observers are cautiously optimistic about Sino-U.S. relations
Swaine,
China Leadership Monitor
, no. 53under an administration of president-elect Donald Trump. Most of
Trump’s comments regarding China are election rhetoric and have no
feasibility at all.7
This caution was understandably more evident prior to Trump’s inauguration, given the
many critical or hostile tweets about China he made during the presidential campaign. At
the time of his inauguration, one non-authoritative source expressed the hope that Trump
would dispel the “doubts and worries” he had created by showing “a sense of
responsibility that matches his power. . . . Trump and his advisors should avoid the
mistake of going too far.”8
Some observers were more even-handed in what they expected from the relationship.
One stated:
Both countries must master the direction of China-U.S. relations. The two
countries should not attempt to “coerce” the opposite party, but should
pursue win-win and multiple win cooperation.9
In contrast, non-authoritative sources have also been direct and confrontational when
commenting on Trump’s criticisms of China. As always, the more hardline
Global Times
expressed a particularly strong view:
We must confront Trump’s provocations head-on, and make sure he won’t
take advantage of China at the beginning of his tenure. We must struggle
with Trump’s provocations with reason and strength, and make sure that
he will not gain any real benefit during the beginning of his tenure.10
Yet many scholars, including military ones, became especially optimistic following
Tillerson’s repeat of China’s phrasing during his Beijing visit, noted above. One stated:
Despite President Trump’s tweets about China . . . the [U.S.] acceptance
of the “no conflict, no confrontation, mutual respect and win-win
cooperation” principle has laid a solid foundation for China-U.S.
cooperation.11
And such optimism became particularly notable following the April summit. For
example, at that time Zhong Sheng observed:
The meetings between the heads of state of China and the U.S. have not
only completed the smooth transition in China-U.S. relations, but also
realized a good start in China-U.S. relations in the new period and made
clear the direction for China-U.S. relations in the future.12
Finally, of note is the fact that non-authoritative sources have also expressed the
opportunity for China provided by Trump’s apparent reduction in engagement with the
world, and his apparent protectionist sentiments. One stated:
Swaine,
China Leadership Monitor
, no. 53It is time for China to transfer its role from an economic locomotive to an
architect of the transformative world order. Now, the world has come to a
crossroads. Which country can provide as much certainty to this confusing
world as the U.S. did . . . Allowing China to modify the world order
could be an option. China should offer certainty to the world by engaging
in the process of principle-making.13
Economic and Trade Policies and Statements, Especially toward China
In general, authoritative sources have responded to the statements and policies of Trump
and his administration regarding economic and trade issues with China (including, in
particular, threats to impose massive tariffs on Chinese imports) by stressing the mutually
beneficial nature of bilateral relations in these areas, as well as China’s overall
contribution to global economic development.
These comments usually also involve an expression of a willingness to “work with the
U.S. side to further deepen and expand economic and trade cooperation and bring more
benefits to the two countries and the rest of the world.”14
Chinese authoritative sources point out that “should a trade war break out between China
and the U.S., it would be the foreign-invested companies in China, particularly U.S. firms
that would bear the brunt of it. We don’t want to see a trade war. A trade war won’t make
our trade fairer. It will only hurt both sides.”15
Moreover, authoritative sources also often state that the World Trade Organization
(WTO) provides an existing framework for addressing any economic problems between
the two countries.16
However, on a more ominous note, one authoritative source stated: “Although China
wishes the best from U.S.-China economic relations, it will be prepared for the worst
scenario.”17
Moreover, in response to critical remarks by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross that
China is hypocritical in talking about free trade while being highly protectionist, a
Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated: “In today’s world, it is clear to all who is sincere
in promoting trade and investment liberalization and who is practicing protectionism.”18
Non-authoritative Chinese sources in many ways echo the authoritative sources,
expressing a general optimism about the mutual benefits of the current economic order
and the ability of the U.S. and China to solve their economic differences through normal
channels and direct meetings, while cautioning against the self-defeating nature of any
U.S. high-pressure tactics.19
However, as is often the case with many other issues, some non-authoritative sources also
expressed a more sharp-edged, directly critical view of Trump’s economic ideas than
those found in authoritative sources. For example, the reliably hardline
Global Times
editorial page thundered that China will not shrink from a trade war, adding:
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