目前,国内外对于 PPP 项目决策的研究主要是集中在对风险的识别和风险分
担方面,而忽略了项目投资的灵活性和战略考虑,缺乏对不确定性价值的认知,
无法实时跟进市场对项目的评价,从而使决策缺乏可信度。而在 PPP 投资决策评
价方法中运用期权理论,则能够对 PPP 投资决策的局限性取得大的突破,有助于
衡量评价结果的客观性和准确性
本文以 YXETA 医院 PPP 项目为例,系统的分析了基于实物期权的 PPP 项目投
资决策。本文总共分为五个部分:首先对论文研究的背景与意义,以及研究思路
与方法、研究框架、内容、创新点进行了系统的阐述。第二部分是对相关文献和
研究现状的回顾。第三部分是对本文研究开展相关概念和理论依据的阐述。第四
部分通过对 PPP 投资时机的分析以及基于实物期权法、考虑成本不确定性 PPP
项目投资决策模型的构建,对基于实物期权的 PPP 项目投资时机决策展开探讨
第五部分在前面章节研究的基础上对 YXETA 医院 PPP 项目投资决策进行分析。最
后是对本文研究的结论与展望。以期为该项目的投资决策提供科学的依据和参
考。并为其他同类项目投资决策中运用实物期权法提供借鉴
关键词:实物期权,投资决策,投资时机,PPP 项目Abstract
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Abstract
In recent years, the number of PPP projects has been increasing, and the
management of investment decisions has become an important part of such projects.
There are many limitations in the evaluation, analysis and decision-making of PPP
project investment with traditional management ideas. Therefore, it is necessary to
find a more suitable method for PPP project investment decision management.
Through the research and analysis, the current research method based on the real
options approach is of great value to the investment decision-making of PPP project.
Abroad, a lot of research theories have been formed, and some research theories have
been put into practice, providing effective results support. In our country, the PPP
project is only the initial stage, and the investment decision analysis method based on
the real options approach is just beginning, so there are few theories and achievements.
Some of the factors affecting investment as a fixed value, which in the specific
implementation process often have large deviations, this is because the actual factors
in the development of the PPP project is for the dynamic change, will have a lot of
influence on the investment decision. The static method of influencing factors has
obviously reduced the complexity of PPP project research, and is not conducive to the
implementation of specific investment decisions.
At present, the domestic and foreign research for PPP project is mainly focused
on identification and risk of risk sharing, but ignore the project investment and
strategic flexibility, lack of uncertainty of the value cognition, follow the market can
not be real-time evaluation of the project, so that the lack of credibility of decision. In
the PPP investment decision evaluation method, the use of option theory can make
great breakthroughs in the limitations of PPP investment decision-making, and help to
measure the objectivity and accuracy of the evaluation results.
Taking PPP project in YXETA hospital as an example, this paper systematically
analyzes the investment decision of PPP project based on real options. This paper isAbstract
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divided into five parts: firstly, the research background and significance, and research
ideas and methods, research framework, contents and innovations are introduced in
this paper; the second part is the review of the relevant literature and research status;
the third part is the development of the related concepts and theoretical basis of this
research paper; the fourth part through the analysis of PPP investment opportunity and
investment decision model based on construction cost uncertainty PPP project real
option method, consideration, discussion on investment of PPP project based on Real
Option Decision; the fifth part in the preceding chapters based on the research of
YXETA hospital PPP project investment decision analysis; the last is the conclusion
and outlook of this study. In order to provide scientific basis and reference for the
investment decision of the project. It can be used as a reference for other similar
projects in the investment decision making by using the real option method.
Keywords: real options, investment decisions, investment opportunities, PPP
projects目录
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目 录
摘要......I
ABSTRACT.....II
第一章 绪论........... 1
第一节 研究背景及研究意义.....1
一、研究背景.........1
二、研究意义.........3
第二节 技术路线及研究方法.....4
一、技术路线.........4
二、研究方法.........5
第三节 研究内容及创新点.........6
一、研究内容.........6
二、创新点.7
第二章 文献综述...9
第一节 PPP 项目融资模式.....9
一、PPP 项目融资模式........9
二、PPP 项目融资模式特点9
三、PPP 项目融资模式基本结构....9
第二节 实物期权理论研究综述...........10
一、国外研究综述...........10
二、国内研究综述...........11
第三章 相关概念及理论依据....
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