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房地产作为国民经济的重要组成部分，并购的成败至关重要。本文将我国房
地产上市公司 2009—2013 年发生的并购事件作为研究样本，分别采用事件研究
法和 EVA 法衡量其短期、长期绩效表现。首先，在总结现有研究结论的基础上，
得到并购类型、支付方式、关联交易和国有控股这四个影响因素，运用多元回归
分析，分别探究其影响效果。之后，将总样本按照这四个标准进行细分，对各分
类样本进行短期、长期绩效评价，并验证其显著性。研究发现，并购类型、支付
方式、关联交易和国有控股均会对主并公司的绩效产生显著影响。短期来看，横
向并购、股票支付、非关联交易和非国有控股均获得了正向超额收益，而纵向并
购、混合并购、现金支付、关联交易和国有控股公司却损害了主并公司的价值，
且均在统计上显著。而长期来看，样本公司的绩效表现均有所下降。其中，横向
并购最优，混合并购优于纵向并购，股票支付优于现金支付，非关联交易优于关
联交易，非国有控股公司优于国有控股公司。最后，将研究结论结合并购市场实
际情况，提出合理化建议
关键词：房地产，并购绩效，影响因素，事件研究法，EVA 法II
ABSTRACT
With the development of economic society, it is a trend for all the companies to
become bigger and improve their core competitiveness. Merger and acquisition
provides a new way to achieve this goal. In 2015, the concept of supply-side structural
reform was put forward. Under this background, mergers and acquisition will become
an important method to promote the reform. However, if M&A can improve the
companies’ performance and value It doesn’t come to a unanimous conclusion,
whether in theory or in practice. Therefore, studies on M&A performance and its
influencing factors are beneficial to find the problems and provide guidance for the
future M&A activities.
The real estate industry is an important part in the national economy, so the
result of M&A is vital. In this thesis, we choose the M&A events of Chinese real
estate industry listed companies from 2009 to 2013 as the study samples, then use
event study method and EVA method to analyze short-term and long-term
performance. First of all, on the basis of existing research conclusion, we use multiple
regression analysis to find the effects of four possible influencing factors, including
type, payment, connected transaction and state-owned holding. After that, we classify
the samples into different groups according to the factors, and evaluate their
performance in both short-term and long-term. We find that, all of the four
influencing factors have significant effects on the performance of acquiring firms. In
the short term, horizontal M&A, stock-swap M&A, non-affiliated transactions and
non-state-owned holding companies obtain positive excess return, while other groups
of M&A have damage to the corporate value. All of the changes are statistically
significant. In the long term, the performance of all the samples decreases. In this
aspect, horizontal M&A has the best performance, conglomerate M&A works well
than vertical M&A. Stock-swap M&A is better than cash M&A. Non-affiliated
transactions are better than connected transactions. Non-state-owned holding
companies are better than state-owned holding companies. Finally, we combine the
study results with practice in Chinese M&A market, and put forward several rational
Suggestions.
KEY WORDS: Real estate, M&A performance, Influencing factors, Event study
method, EVA methodIII
目 录
摘要........ I
ABSTRACT...... II
第 1 章 导论 .....1
1.1 研究背景...........1
1.2 研究意义...........2
1.3 研究方法...........3
1.4 研究框架...........4
1.5 本文创新点.......5
第 2 章 文献综述 .........7
2.1 并购绩效影响因素.......7
2.2 不同研究方法下的并购绩效.10
2.3 我国房地产行业并购绩效..... 11
2.4 文献评述.........12
第 3 章 并购理论及行业现状分析...13
3.1 并购理论.........13
3.1.1 并购含义...........13
3.1.2 并购分类...........13
3.1.3 并购动因...........14
3.2 房地产行业分析.........16
3.2.1 我国房地产行业现状分析.......16
3.2.2 我国房地产并购现状分析.......18
3.2.3 我国房地产并购动因分析.......19
第 4 章 并购绩效影响因素实证分析...........21
4.1 样本选择与数据来源.21
4.2 研究方法.........22
4.2.1 事件研究法.......22
4.2.2EVA 法...24
4.3 研究假设.........27
4.4 模型设计.........28
4.5 短期并购绩效影响因素实证分析.....29
4.5.1 指标的计算.......29
4.5.2AAR、CAAR 的显著性检验 ...30IV
4.5.3 回归分析...........31
4.6 长期并购绩效影响因素实证分析.....32
4.6.1EVA 分析...........32
4.6.2△EVA 的显著性检验...33
4.6.3 回归分析...........33
第 5 章 并购绩效分类评价 ...
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