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17 January 2018
Steel
Steel Price Tracker
Steel
Steel
Periodical
Europe
Austria
France
Industry
Steel Price Tracker
Date
17 January 2018
Deutsche Bank
Markets Research
Steel price momentum continues to
last
Will steel prices fall or maintain their strength
Steel equities continue to be volatile, driven by macro woes and commodity price
movements. Although current spot conditions remain strong, we still expect cost
support to fade, and thus, European prices to fall (current spot conditions would
imply further signicant earnings upgrades across the space).Our top picks are:
1) ArcelorMittal, which looks attractive to us based on strong cash ow (9-11%
FCF yield), valuation and additional upside optionality; and 2) Voestalpine, which
we believe has more room for upgrades, generates strong underlying CF (8-9%
FCF yield) and has a less volatile business model.
HRC: N. European prices up E6
Figure 1: HRC prices
200250
300350
400450
500550
600650
700750
800850
900950
1,0001,050
Jan14Apr14Jul14Oct14Jan15Apr15Jul15Oct15Jan16Apr16Jul16Oct16Jan17Apr17Jul17Oct17Jan18
Northern EuropeUSAChina exports to EuropeUSD/t
Source: The Steel Index
Last week, N. European prices were up by E6 to E541 (up by USD5 to USD650)
and S. European prices were also up by E5 to E524 (up by USD4 to USD630).
Prices have risen E8 in the past three months. Yet, several European players have
started to push for a E20/t price hike.
US HRC prices up USD14; Chinese export prices were stable
US HRC prices were up USD14 last week and US players announced price hikes
of USD40/t. The price dierential with China increased to USD163/t. Chinese HRC
prices were stable at USD572. The spread between Chinese and S. European
prices rose to USD58, in line with two-year average spread of USD58, with
Chinese prices up E7 (up USD19) in the last three months.
Plate: N. European prices up E8; US prices up by USD11
Figure 2: Raw material prices
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
Jan15Mar15May15Jul15Sep15Nov15Jan16Mar16May16Jul16Sep16Nov16Jan17Mar17May17Jul17Sep17Nov17Jan18
Iron ore Fines 62% Fe, CFR Tianjin, ChinaShredded scrap, US (RHS)USD/tUSD/t
Source: The Steel Index
N. European prices were up E8 to E583 (up USD7 to USD700). Prices rose E6 in
the past month. S. European prices were stable at E550 (down in USD terms by
USD2 to USD661). US prices were up by USD11 to USD824 (up E11 to E686) and
US players announced another USD50/t price hike.
Iron ore: Fines 62% Fe prices down USD3/dmt; coking coal: prices down USD9
The price of Fines 62% were down by USD3 WoW to USD76/dmt. Chinese steel
output increased 3.6% WoW to 1.78mt/day in the last ten days of December.
Prices of premium coking coal (Australian exports) decreased by USD9 to USD252
last week. They were down by E12 to E205.
Scrap: European prices down USD1
We value MT using an equal blend of
forward EBITDA (6.0x 2018E) and DCF
(7.9% WACC, 2% Tg), and VOES using DCF
(7.7% WACC, 1% Tg). Risks: weaker steel
prices and demand divergence from our
steel sector scenario.
European prices were down by USD1 to USD357/t, while Turkish prices were up
USD2 to USD374/t last week. If current prices were to remain stable until end-
Q1, the QoQ price increase for European scrap in Q1 would be USD46.
Bastian Synagowitz
Research Analyst
+41-44-227-3377
Top picks
ArcelorMittal (MT.AS),EUR30.52Buy
Voestalpine (VOES.VI),EUR53.48Buy
Source: Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank AG/London
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be
aware that the rm may have a conict of interest that could aect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider
this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017.
Distributed on: 17/01/2018 01:03:13 GMT
7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa
17 January 2018
Steel
Steel Price Tracker
Deutsche Bank Steel &
Mining team
Page 2Deutsche Bank AG/London
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17 January 2018
Steel
Steel Price Tracker
Steel price summary
Figure 3: Steel price summary
Prices for the week Jan 01 - Jan 08BloombergPrice per tonneAbsolute change (USD)% change (USD)Absolute change (EUR)% change (EUR)
IndexTickerUSDEUR1w1m3mytdy/y1w1m3mytdy/y1w1m3mytdy/y1w1m3mytdy/y
Hot Rolled Coil (HRC)
N. EuropeTSIPNEHR6505415181174661321311660-9-11110-2-2
S. EuropeTSIPSEHR63052442921766515314115158-5-9132-1-2
TurkeyTSIPTKHR6305252049278691384161718311361646213
USATSIPUSHR735612143286907125131411131662-4-152311-1-2
Chinese exportsTSIPCXHR5724760619787701316152-472110-1202
Cold Reduced Coil (CRC)
N. EuropeTSIPNECR745620-218461480309704-8-33-3801-1-5-6
S. EuropeTSIPSECR75262626444884754671311242630-12-14445-2-2
TurkeyTSIPTKCR719599223239949135615142016221633401
USATSIPUSCR93277613227245351285413447-71-72216-8-9
Chinese exportsTSIPCXCR61551204152838012562-74-47-330-11-8-6
Hot Dipped Galvanised Coil (HDG)
N. EuropeTSIPNEGV799665332255225043735159-48-66121-7-9
S. EuropeTSIPSEGV764636173927382025453162212-57-67332-8-10
USATSIPUSGV1,00483611255162301357312628-64-85113-7-9
Plate
N. EuropeTSIPNEPL7005837206117109131201886-6262511-154
S. EuropeTSIPSEPL661550-256-194820901714037-119307-221
USATSIPUSPL8246861173651751631109272511494266612871110
Rebar
N. EuropeTSIPNERB675562-9538188183-1163937-6-7229797-1-142121
S. EuropeTSIPSERB54246300-3868200-11918000282800066
USANA6175130003333000660-11-10-43-380-2-2-8-7
Iron ore as of January 15, 2018
Fines 62% FeTSIPIO627662-3216-1-5-3326-2-7-3010-12-14-5-120-16-19
Fines 58% FeTSIPIO586149-21212-6-10-42426-9-15-388-14-17-62020-23-26
Scrap as of 11 January 2018
USTSIPUSFS3352791131545428310191999214112-1038174-3
EuropeMBSFRSHR357297-11175747903262628-1357273501241013
TurkeyTSIPTIFS3743112227183861623283031354333914211214
Coking coal as of 15 January 2018
Premium Coking Coal / Australian ExportsNA252205-92743976-31421843-12-654240-5-335124
Source: The Steel Index, Bloomberg Finance LP
Industry valuation and risks
We use various methodologies to value the steel companies under our coverage
– from a DCF-based valuation to a normalised earnings approach and a sum-of-
the-parts (SOTP) analysis. Key industry risks include: 1) global economic growth
not meeting expectations; 2) lower-than-expected steel prices, which could result
in an erosion of earnings; 3) higher raw material and other operating costs, which
could limit earnings growth; 4) the political inuence of governments in the steel
trade; 5) expansion projects not progressing as expected; and 6) M&A valuation
and integration risks.
Deutsche Bank AG/LondonPage 3
17 January 2018
Steel
Steel Price Tracker
Steel price announcements
Figure 4: Recent price changes
Product CategoryDate of announcementCompanyCountryDetails
12 January 2018CSNBrazilCSN increased its flat steel product prices (HRC, CRC and HDG) by 12% in
the first days of 2018.
12 January 2018UsiminasBrazilUsiminas increased its flat steel product prices (HRC, CRC and HDG) by
12% in the first days of 2018.
09 January 2018SSAB USSSAB increased its US plate prices by $50/st, effective immediately for all
existing non-contract orders.
09 January 2018ArcelorMittal USArcelorMittal increased its US plate prices by $50/st, effective immediately
for all existing non-contract orders.
12 January 2018Hesteel GroupChinaHesteel Group decreased its domestic rebar list prices by Yuan 150/mt. As
a result, the prices of 18mm, 20-22mm and 25mm rebar rose to Yuan
4,050/mt ($621/mt) for the January 11-20 period. All prices are inclusive of
VAT.
11 January 2018Jiangsu ShagangChinaJiangsu Shagang Group decreased its domestic rebar prices by Yuan
300/mt ($46/mt) for the January 11-20 period. As a result, its 16-25mm
diameter HRB400 rebar price decreased to Yuan 4,350/mt ($669/mt)
including 17% VAT.
11 January 2018Gerdau Long Steel USGerdau Long Steel increased its merchant bar prices by $30/st, effective
from January 11.
11 January 2018NucorUSNucor increased its merchant bar prices by $30/st, effective from January
11.
06 December 2017Nippon Steel & Sumikin
Stainless (NSSC)
JapanNippon Steel & Sumikin Stainless increased its domestic stainless prices of
austenitic CRC, ferritic CRC and plate by Yen 10,000/mt ($89/mt) for
December contracts.
23 November 2017OutokumpuFinland Outokumpu increased its December alloy adjustment factor for type 304
(4301) 100/1,362/mt ($1,614/mt) and also
increased its December surcharge for molybdenum-bearing type 316
(4401) 135 1,919/mt. It also
increased surcharge for nickel-free type 430 flat products remains stable at
677/mt.
23 November 2017AperamLuxembourgAperam increased its December alloy adjustment factor for type 304
(4301) 94/1,360/mt and also increased its
December surcharge for molybdenum-bearing type 316 (4401) flat
Aperam'3 665/mt.
10 November 2017Nisshin Steel JapanNisshin Steel increased its domestic prices of austenitic CRC by Yen
20,000/mt ($177/mt) for November contracts.
Flats
Longs
Stainless
Source: Steel Business Brieng
Page 4Deutsche Bank AG/London
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