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但近几年来，我们国家逐渐加强了对肉鸭行业和肉鸭产品的质量和安全监管，特
别是在动物疫情防疫，产品质量卫生要求方面日益严格。整个肉鸭行业趋于规模
化和集约化。在这种形势下，企业在运营肉鸭项目期间，需要投入更多的资金和
技术用于管理，销售和防疫。若在项目运营期间出现动物疫情或者产品质量问题，
项目很容易失败。因此，在投资肉鸭项目之初，非常有必要对肉鸭项目的投资效
益和风险因素进行分析，确定肉鸭项目是否可行
本文结合 JS 公司肉鸭项目实际情况，利用项目效益分析理论和风险评价理论，
采用定性与定量分析相结合的方式对项目是否可行进行分析。首先，本文对项目
效益评价与风险分析理论进行了梳理。其次，对公司肉鸭项目的基本情况进行了
描述，探讨了肉鸭项目目前的市场需求、市场结构及竞争环境，并对肉鸭项目财
务评价与风险分析必要性进行了分析。随后根据获得的项目数据，按照财务评价
方法，选取财务评价参数，在设定的财务评价时间和产品价格、成本基础上，估
算出项目的收入及成本，计算了项目的盈利能力指标、偿债能力指标和生存能力
指标，并对项目进行不确定性分析，得出总体财务上的可行性。通过专家问卷统
计，查阅相关项目资料，识别出肉鸭项目所面临的风险因素。识别风险后，采用
层次分析法，利用风险因素的两两对比构建判断矩阵计算肉鸭项目风险因素权重，
然后运用模糊综合评价法得出项目总风险为一般风险。最后根据计算的风险因素
权重，针对前三大风险给出详细对策，其余风险也给出了风险应对措施，做好项
目风险管理
本文通过对 JS 公司肉鸭投资项目的效益进行分析，对项目的风险进行评价，
其结论可以为 JS 公司肉鸭项目决策提供参考，有利于提高肉鸭项目的竞争力，避
免投资失败。同时本文分析结论也可为行业同类项目的投资建设提供借鉴
关键词：肉鸭项目，财务评价，风险分析ABSTRACT
II
ABSTRACT
People’s demand for high-quality food is growing steadily with the rapid
development of national economy. More and more people love duck meat because of its
high nutrition and good taste. At present, China has become the world&39;s largest duck
producing and consuming country. The duck industry has enjoyed a bloom. In recent
years, with the enhancement of animal epidemic prevention and product quality
supervision, the scale and intensive integration trend of duck industry is very obvious.
Under this situation, duck companies need to invest more money and technology for
management, sales and epidemic prevention. If the animal epidemic or product quality
problems occur during the operation of the project, the project will easily fail. So before
the investment, it is very important to determine whether the project is feasible by
analyzing the benefit of the project and evaluating the risk of the project.
Based on the actual situation of the duck project, the feasibility of the project is
analyzed by the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis method, using the
project benefit analysis theory and the risk evaluation theory. Firstly, the theories on the
performance evaluation of the construction project and risk analysis are expounded.
And then, the basic situation of the project is described, the current market demand,
market structure and competitive environment of the project are discussed either.
Besides, the necessity of financial evaluation and risk analysis of meat duck project is
analyzed also. After that, based on the obtained project data, the benefit evaluation
parameters are selected, and the project income and cost are estimated on the basis of
the evaluation time, product price and cost. Then indicators including project
profitability, solvency and viability and the uncertainty analysis are evaluated and the
duck project is financially viable. After identifying the risk, using the two pairs of risk
factors to construct the judgment matrix to calculate the weight of the risk factors, the
risk factors of the duck project are calculated, and then the fuzzy comprehensive
evaluation method is used to obtain the total risk of the project as the general risk.
Finally, according to the calculated risk factors, detailed measures are given to meet the
first three risks; the remaining risks are also taken into considerations for better risk
management.
By analyzing the benefit of the project and evaluating the risk of the project, it isABSTRACT
III
helpful to improve the duck project competitiveness and to avoid the failure of
investment. And the performance evaluation and risk analysis of this paper will provide
a certain reference on the decision of the duck project, and also a reference for other
projects in relevant industry investment.
Keywords: Duck industry，Financial Evaluation，Risk analysis目录
IV
目录
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第一章 绪论........ 1
1.1 选题背景 1
1.2 研究目的和意义 2
1.3 研究思路及论文框架.... 3
1.3.1 研究内容 3
1.3.2 论文框架 3
第二章 相关理论及方法 5
2.1 项目财务评价.... 5
2.1.1 财务评价的发展现状.... 5
2.1.2 财务评价指标..... 6
2.2 项目风险管理.... 8
2.2.1 项目风险管理的基本概念........ 8
2.2.2 项目风险识别..... 9
2.2.3 项目风险评价... 10
2.2.4 项目风险应对....11
2.3 本章小结.......... 12
第三章 JS 公司肉鸭项目概况. 13
3.1 项目企业简介.. 13
3.2 肉鸭项目介绍.. 14
3.2.1 项目概况.......... 14
3.2.2 项目建设方案.. 15
3.2.3 项目意义........... 16
3.3 肉鸭项目市场分析...... 18
3.3.1 项目市场需求分析....... 18
3.3.2 项目市场结构和竞争环境.
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