摘要
·I
摘要
公司股票价格围绕价值波动，并最终回归于公司的价值。如果能采用一定的分析
模型来确定上市公司的价值，用分析得出的公司价值与对应的股票价格相比较，可以
为市场的投资者提供明确的投资依据。有色金属行业作为经济发展的基础材料产业，
其发展状况关系到国计民生，特别是在电力电子、消费品、机械制造、交通运输、建
筑等领域，起到不可替代作用。本文选取江西铜业股份公司（江西铜业，代码：600362.SZ）
作为有色金属行业投资价值分析的对象，运用在 MBA 期间所学的知识对其投资价值进
行评估和研究

本文采用的是“自上而下”的投资价值评估方法。通过对宏观经济形势的分析，
认为国内固定资产的投资政策对有色金属行业的发展产生重要的影响，国内宏观经济
中的进出口、消费对铜价格有重要的影响；第二，通过对江西铜业的财务比率指标、
成长性和行业分析得出江西铜业财务经营状况良好，在有色金属行业具有较强的行业
竞争力。第三结合财务指标和预期收益情况，运用市盈率、市净率、现金流折现方法
对江西铜业公司的价值进行评估；最后，对江西铜业合理估值区间进行评估，并给出
投资建议

本文认为：第一，通过市盈率、市净率和现金流折现方法评估得出，江西铜业公
司发行上市的每股股票估值在 18.44 元，对应 2016 年 12 月 30 日江西铜业的收盘价为
16.73 元有一定的低估，建议投资者买入。第二，有色金属行业属于周期性行业，目前
行业发展处于低谷时期，江西铜业作为有色金属铜行业龙头企业，其雄厚的资源优势，
伴随着行业转暖将给股东带来丰厚的收益

本文研究的意义：采用多种分析方式对江西铜业的投资价值进行评估，分析出有
色金属行业与宏观经济发展正相关的特点，针对行业的特点得出投资价值的评估方法；
另一方面，帮助投资者了解江西铜业其所处行业的经营发展情况，为投资者投资提供
合适的估值范围

关键词：江西铜业，投资价值，分析与评估ABSTRACT
·III
ABSTRACT
The share price of a company fluctuates around its value and will finally return to its value.
If we are able to find out the values of listed companies by adopting certain analytical model,
and compare the result with the corresponding share prices, then we can provide clear
investment evidence to investors in the market. As a fundamental material industry for
economic development, nonferrous metal industry involves the interests of the state and the
people, and it is considered irreplaceable particularly in fields such as electricity and
electronics, consumer goods, machinery, transportation, and construction industry. This
paper chooses Jiangxi Copper Limited Liability Company (Jiangxi Copper, code: 600362.SZ)
as the research object of nonferrous metal industry investment value, and complete the
evaluation and research using the knowledge learned during MBAperiod.
This paper uses a top-down investment value evaluation approach. Through the analysis of
macro-economic situation, we realize that the investment policy of Chinese fixed assets has a
major influence on t he development of nonferrous industry, and that import, export and
consumption have a great effect on the price of copper. Secondly, we analyze the financial
ratio indicators, growth possibility and industry of Jiangxi Copper, and find that the company
is in good financial condition and is competitive in nonferrous industry. Thirdly, we evaluate
the value of Jiangxi Copper using P/E ratio, P/B ratio and discounted cash flow technique in
combination with financial indicators and expected profit. Finally, we give an appropriate
evaluation range for Jiangxi Copper and present corresponding investment advice.
This paper argues that: Firstly, based on P /E ratio, P/B ratio and discounted cash flow
technique, the value of each share issued by Jiangxi Copper is estimated at 18.44 yuan, and
the corresponding closing price on December 30th, 2016 was 16.73 yuan. Hence the value of
the share is undervalued, and we suggest investors buy in stocks. Secondly, nonferrous
industry is a cyclical industry and is in its trough at present. As a leading enterprise in
nonferrous industry, Jiangxi Copper has solid resource advantages, which will lead to great
profits for shareholders with the recovery of the industry.
The research significance of this paper: We evaluate the investment value of Jiangxi Copper
through multiple analysis methods, find that there is a positive correlation between the西安电子科技大学硕士学位论文
IV
development of nonferrous metal industry and macro economy development, and obtain the
evaluation approach of investment value according to the feature of the industry. On the
other hand, this paper helps investors understand the current development of Jiangxi Copper
and its industry, and provides an appropriate evaluation range for investors.
Keywords： Jiangxi Copper , Investment value,Analysis and evaluation插图索引
·V
插图索引
图 3.1 固定资产投资增速和资金来源增速........... 16
图 3.2 三大需求对GDP的贡献率 2009--2015....... 17
图 3.3 铜行业产业链结构... 19
图 3.4 世界主要国家铜金属储量 2015 年. 19
图 3.5 中国精铜消费结构... 21
图 3.6 近 10 年中国各类PMI指标对比...... 23
图 3.7 伦敦交易所铜库存量与铜价指数程负相关关系... 24
图 3.8 全球铜供需平衡表... 26
图 3.9 SHFE铜库存和铜的价的关系......... 26
图 5.1 2005-2016 年江西铜业股股票价格走势..... 46表格索引
V·II
表格索引
表 3.1 GDP同比增长速度......15
表 3.2 中国进口和出口增速变化趋势..........16
表 3.3 中国精铜供需平衡表..22
表 4.1 江西铜业公司主要股东情况..29
表 4.2 江西铜业公司上市以来分红情况......30
表 4.5 有色矿采加工行业分析..........32
表 4.6 江西铜业公司股份主营业务构成按产品分类..........32
表 4.7 江西铜业公司近三年来主要财务指标..........33
表 4.8 江西铜业公司每股指标..........34
表 4.9 江西铜业公司利润表摘要 2011-201534
表 4.10 江西铜业公司资产负债表摘要 2011-2015..35
表 4.11 江西铜业公司现金流情况 2011-2015..........35
表 4.12 江西铜业公司盈利能力情况 2013-2015......36
表 4.13 江西铜业公司存货情况 2013-2015..37
表 4.14 江西铜业公司债务情况 2013-2015..37
表 4.15 江西铜业公司比率指标 2014-2016..38
表 4.16 江西铜业公司成长情况 2010-2015..38
表 4.17 江西铜业公司盈利指标情况 2010-2015......39
表 4.18 江西铜业公司 2016-2018 年收入与利润情况预测.39
表 5.1 江西铜业公司
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