摘要
随着电网规模不断的扩大，大修技改和综合自动化改造的项目也越来越复杂，这些
给供电企业的运行、维护带来严峻挑战。变电站运行作业是电网安全运行的重要一个环
节，他们承担着倒闸操作和日常维护等基础性工作。然而，从历年的事故事件报告原因
上看，其中有很大部分是由于运行管理失误导致的。变电运行作业安全，它对人身、设
备及电网安全都起着十分重要的作用。因此，做好变电运行作业风险评估和预控意义重
大

首先，本文介绍了风险评估的研究背景以及国内外研究现状。简单对比了风险评估
几种方法，对定性评估和定量评估有了初步认识。为了让本文研究的结果更具科学性和
指导性，经结合变电运行工作实际，拟采取定性和定量相结合的评估方法

其次，分析了风险的内涵和风险相关管理知识，总结了风险评估在风险管理中的地
位和作用，并对典型的风险辨识和风险评估方法进行综述。同时，本文对变电运行作业
内容进行相关概述，总结了因运行管理导致的典型事故类型，并对其原因进行分析。针
对变电运行工作特点，本文基于德菲尔法建立变电运行作业风险库，以 220kV 母线停电
作业风险为例，从行为危害因素、物理危害因素、人机功效伤害因素以及环境危害因素
等方面，查找引起作业风险的因素

在辨识完风险因素之后，本文以模糊综合评价法构建风险评估模型，通过层次分析
法分析各评价指标之间的权重，再采用模糊综合评价法对风险进行定量评估。本文结合
220kV 母线停电作业风险为例，进行理论阐述和算法验证，得出了物理危害因素在风险
因素中的重要比例，为风险评估人员提供理论支持和模型推演

最后，根据评估的结果，本文给变电运行作业安全提出建议和预控措施，为变电运
行作业安全提供理论参考

关键词：变电运行；风险评估；倒闸操作华北电力大学硕士学位论文
II
Abstract
With the expanding of power grid scale unceasingly，it becomes more and more complex
to the overhaul technological upgrading and integrated automation reform. As an important
part of the power system safety operation，substation operation undertakes the task of the
grid，such as switching operation，routine maintenance. The substation watch plays an
important role to the entire power system. It is significant to research on the risk assessment
and pre-control of replay protection field work.
Firstly，this thesis introduces the research background of the thesis，the risk assessment
research status of foreign and domestic. Compared simply to several methods of risk
assessment，this thesis has a preliminary understanding of qualitative and quantitative. In
order to make the research results more scientific and instructive，this paper combined with
the actual operation of Substation，and chooses the method of combining qualitative and
quantitative analysis.
Then，this paper analyzes the content and related concepts of risk management and
summarizes the position and role of risk assessment in risk management and the typical
methods of risk identification and risk assessment. This paper overviews the content of
substation operation. This paper summarizes the typical types of accidents caused by
operation management，and the causes are each typical accident. In view of substation
operation characteristics， this paper constructs the risk identification model of Delphi
technique. This paper constructs evaluation model of 220kV busbar switching operation，
which is based on the behavior hazard factors，physical factors，man-machine efficacy
damage factors and environmental hazards，etc.，to find the causes of operating risk.
After the end of the identification of risk factors，this paper constructs a risk assessment
model based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method，the AHP weights of the risk factors，
using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for quantitative assessment of risk. This thesis
verifies the theory and algorithm，through the example of 220kV busbar switching operation.
And then obtains the physical hazard factors in the important proportion of risk factors，
provides theory support for the risk assessment personnel and model inference.
Finally，according to the results of the assessment，this paper puts forward suggestions
and pre-control measures for the safety of substation operation，which provides a theoretical
reference for the operation safety of substation operation.
KEYWORDS: substation operation，risk assessment，switching operation华北电力大学硕士学位论文
III
目 录
摘要.......I
ABSTRACT .......II
第 1 章 绪 论....1
1.1 课题背景和研究意义 ..... 1
1.2 国内外研究现状 . 2
1.2.1 供电企业风险评估研究现状 .......... 2
1.2.2 运行作业风险评估研究现状 .......... 3
1.3 论文的主要内容 . 4
第 2 章 风险管理理论与方法..6
2.1 风险管理基础理论 ......... 6
2.1.1 风险的定义及特征 .. 6
2.1.2 风险和事故的关系 .. 7
2.1.3 风险管理内容 .......... 7
2.1.4 风险管理特点 .......... 9
2.2 风险辨识技术 ... 10
2.2.1 安全检查表法 ........ 10
2.2.2 WBS-RBS 风险辨识法....... 10
2.2.3 故障树分析法 ........ 11
2.2.4 专家经验法13
2.3 风险评估技术 ... 13
2.3.1 定性分析方法 ........ 13
2.3.2 定量分析方法 ........ 14
2.3.3 定性、定量相结合分析法14
2.4 风险控制基本方法 ......
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