January 4, 2018
2018 outlook
Michael Tong, CFA | (+852 )2203 6167 | michael.tong@db
DeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhavea
conflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestment
decision.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017.
THECONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDINTHEPEOPLE’SREPUBLICOFCHINA(“THEPRC”)(EXCEPTINCOMPLIANCEWITHTHEAPPLICABLELAWS
ANDREGULATIONSOFPRC),EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAU
Markets Research
January 2018
China Equity Strategy
Chief China Equity Strategist, Michael Tong
(+852) 2203 6167| michael.tong@db
2018 outlook: Stay bullish for quality growth, G.A.R.P. investment themes
Outline
1.2017 performance recap
2.Macro/liquidity outlook
3.Market view, sector preference and stock picks
4.Greening Environment
5.Reforming SOEs
6.Advancing manufacturing
7.Premiumizingconsumption
Distributed on: 22/01/2018 16:32:26 GMT
7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa
Markets ResearchDeutsche Bank
Michael Tong, CFA | (+852 )2203 6167 | michael.tong@db
January, 2018
22/01/2018 15:47:28betterqualitygrowth.
(environment),Advancing(manufacturing),Reforming(SOE),andPremiumizing(consumption).
Water/Renewables,aswellasBanks/Brokers,andUWMaterials,RealEstate,CapitalGoodsand
traditionaldefensives(Telecom/Staples).
Stay bullishfor quality growth, G.A.R.P. investment themes
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Markets ResearchDeutsche Bank
Michael Tong, CFA | (+852 )2203 6167 | michael.tong@db
January, 2018
Global equities performance in 2017Source: Deutsche Bank, FactSet
MSCI China sector performance in 2017
Source: Deutsche Bank, FactSet
USD price return
YTD
59.8%
52.1%
45.5%
38.7%
36.8%
35.0%
34.3%
30.9%
29.9%
26.3%
23.8%
23.7%
22.4%
22.1%
22.0%
21.8%
21.0%
20.8%
19.5%
13.6%
2.9%
0.3%
-4.7%ChiNext
Russia
SZCOMP
SHCOMP
US
S. America
Brazil
Japan
Indonesia
Europe
Red-chips
HSCEI
Taiwan
S.E. Asia
CSI300
Singapore
EM
HSI
India
Asia x. JP
S. Korea
MSCI China
China ADRs97%
92%
62% 61%
56%
52% 51%
42%
32%
27%
22% 21%
13% 12%
0%
-1%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
Recap of index performance in 2017
Markets ResearchDeutsche Bank
Michael Tong, CFA | (+852 )2203 6167 | michael.tong@db
January, 2018
MSCI China 2017 performance attribution analysis by
sectorSource: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Financial LP
NameP/E ratingEPS growthPerformance
Consumer Discretionary20.3%33.8%60.9%
Consumer Staples 25.3%13.0%41.6%
Energy -18.8%38.6%12.6%
Financials6.9%20.8%29.1%
Health Care29.8%21.5%57.7%
Industrials -4.6%23.2%17.4%
Information Technology 22.1%57.2%92.1%
Materials-13.1%72.1%49.5%
Real Estate 31.2%49.0%95.5%
Telecommunication Services -10.8%11.1%-1.0%
Utilities 6.5%14.2%21.6%
MSCI China16.8%29.8%52.1%
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