摘要
国内宝类基金可分为以下三类：互联网类，银行类，基金公司类。在总体上
升趋势中宝类基金的资产规模于最近出现了一些波荡，分析宝类基金投资者投资
决策过程中的感知风险因素具有重要意义。面对市场上众多的类余额宝理财产
品，宝类基金投资者的感知风险包括哪些方面？感知风险是怎样影响宝类基金投
资者的投资意愿与投资行为的？这种影响是直接的还是间接的？感知风险的不
同方面作用有何不同？如何降低投资者的感知风险？
本文结合宝类基金产品的特点，对宝类基金投资者的感知风险与投资意向、
投资行为的关系进行了研究。文章以技术接受模型，计划行为理论以及感知风险
理论为基础，结合宝类基金特点对理论模型进行了整合和调整，形成了基于感知
风险的宝类基金投资意向与投资行为模型，通过平滑转移回归模型分析了总体感
知风险与投资行为关系；接着通过对代表人群的重点访谈，结合国内外学者的观
点，构建出宝类基金感知风险的主要维度及测量项，根据国内外成熟的测量量表，
结合宝类基金特点，设计调查问卷分析个体投资者感知风险与投资行为的关系，
将宝类基金的主要投资群体——高校学生为主要的调研对象，通过实地发放问卷
和网上调研两种渠道共收回了问卷 281 份并对数据进行分析；然后将宝类基金的
代表——余额宝作为案例，分析了余额宝的感知风险内容及其降低策略；最后对
调研进行总结并在理论上提出了降低宝类基金感知风险的策略

得出以下结论：（1）在各类感知风险中，投资者基于自身的在心理承受和
财务损益方面的风险感知，大于基于投资产品的技术操作和功能层面的风险。（2）
宝类基金男性投资者感知风险影响高于女性；宝类基金投资主体多集中于 18-25
岁年轻人，不同年龄群体对感知风险在投资过程中影响不十分显著；较低文化投
资者感知风险显著削减投资意向，并降低未来投资行为；相对于高收入群体，较
低收入群体对感知风险更敏感；基金系现金宝投资者有较强的感知风险并对投资
意向有较强抵消作用，而其他系数差异不大。（3）知觉行为能力与感知风险对
投资意向与投资行为的影响有着显著的调节作用。本研究对于实证分析的结果均
给出了合理解释，且基于此在宝类基金理财产品的设计、营销及管理等方面为相
关机构提出了改良建议

关键词：感知风险，投资意向，投资行为，风险管理III
ABSTRACT
Based on the previous research results and research methods, combined with the
characteristics of the Bao class fund products, this paper has analyzed the relationship
between the perceived risk and investment intention, as well as investment behavior.
Based on the technology acceptance model, the theory of planned behavior and
perceived risk theory,this thesis has combine and adjust the theoretical model, forming
a model of investment intention and behavior of Bao class fund , and carry out the
research.
In this thesis, through the analysis of the model as well as the data, we can draw
the following conclusions:
(1) In all kinds of perceived risks, investors&39; risk perception based on their own
psychological and financial gains and losses is greater than the risk perception of
technical operation and function based on investment products.
(2)Male investors&39; perception of risk is higher than female ; Bao class fund
investors are mainly young people aged 18-25 years, the perception of risk of
different age groups have no significant differents;The investors of lower education
have a higher level of risk-perception; Compared to high income groups, low income
groups are more sensitive to perceived risk; Funds class fund investors have a stronger
perceived risk and which strongly offsets the investment intentions, and other factors
have little difference.
(3) Perceived behavioral ability plays a significant role in the effect of
perceived risk on investment intention and investment behavior.
For the results of the empirical analysis, we give some reasonable explanations
and suggestions on the level of design, marketing as well as management of the Bao
class fund: Disclose corporate information to consumers as much as possible; Provide
products and service that is of good quality;Establish brand image and cultivate
customer loyalty; Devide market accurately and differentiate marketing.
KEYWORDS:Perceived risk,Investment intention,Investment behavior,Risk
managementV
目 录
摘要........ I
ABSTRACT....III
第一章 引言......1
1.1 研究背景..........1
1.1.1 经济发展带来居民理财需求的增长....1
1.1.2 传统理财不能满足低净值人群理财需求........2
1.1.3 低净值人群理财困境被宝类基金所打破........2
1.2 研究目的和意义..........4
1.2.1 研究目的4
1.2.2 研究意义4
1.3 研究方法..........6
1.3.1 文献分析法........6
1.3.2 问卷调查法........6
1.3.3 定量分析法........6
1.3.4 案例分析法........6
1.4 研究框架与主要成果..6
1.5 研究创新及贡献..........8
1.5.1 研究视角的创新8
1.5.2 整合模型的应用创新....8
1.5.3 研究方法的创新8
第二章 理论基础及文献综述..9
2.1 技术接受模型..9
2.2 计划行为理论（TPB)........... 10
2.3 感知风险........12
2.3.1 感知风险的定义..........12
2.3.2 感知风险的构面..........13
2.3.3 降低感知风险的策略..15
第三章 研究假设与模型........19
3.1 研究假设的提出........19
3.2 理论模型的构建........20VI
第四章 研究方案的设计与数据分析23
4.1 研究方案设计23
4.1.1 总体感知风险和投资意向行为..........23
4.1.2 不同类感知风险和投资行为..25
4.1.3 调查量表与数据收集..25
4.2 数据分析........28
4.2.1 信度与效度分析..........28
4.2.2 结构模型分析..28
4.3 假设检验........29
4.4 研究结果分析29
4.4.1 风险感知因子分析......30
4.4.2 不同人群投资行为与感知风险对比..30
第五章 余额宝的感知风险管理实践35
5.1 余额宝的感知风险....35
5.1.1 功能风险...
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