GLOBAL PRIORITIES PROJECT 2017
Existential Risk
Diplomacy and Governance
GLOBAL PRIORITIES PROJECT 20172EXISTENTIAL RISK: DIPLOMACY AND GOVERNANCE
Table of contents
Authors/acknowledgements 3
Executive summary 4
Section 1. An introduction to existential risks 6
1.1. An overview of leading existential risks 6
Box: Examples of risks categorised according to scope and severity 7
1.1.1 Nuclear war 7
1.1.2 Extreme climate change and geoengineering 8
1.1.3 Engineered pandemics 9
1.1.4 Artificial intelligence 9
1.1.5 Global totalitarianism 9
1.1.6 Natural processes 10
1.1.7 Unknown unknowns 10
1.2. The ethics of existential risk 11
1.3. Why existential risks may be systematically underinvested in,
and the role of the international community 11
1.3.1. Why existential risks are likely to be underinvested in 11
1.3.2. The role of the international community 12
Section 2. Recommendations 16
2.1. Develop governance of Solar Radiation Management research 16
2.1.1 Current context 16
2.1.2 Proposed intervention 16
Box: Types of interventions to reduce existential risk 17
2.1.3 Impact of the intervention 18
2.1.4 Ease of making progress 19
2.2. Establish scenario plans and exercises for severe
engineered pandemics at the international level 19
2.2.1 Current context 19
2.2.2 Proposed intervention 20
2.2.3 Impact of the intervention 21
2.2.4 Ease of making progress 21
Box: World bank pandemic emergency financing facility 22
2.3. Build international attention to and support for existential risk reduction 23
2.3.1 Current context 23
2.3.2 Proposed intervention 23
2.3.2.1 Statements or declarations 24
Box: Existential risk negligence as a crime against humanity 24
2.3.2.2 Reports 24
2.3.2.3 Training courses 25
2.3.2.4 Political representation for Future Generations 25
2.3.2.5 UN Office of Existential Risk Reduction 26
2.3.3 Impact of the intervention 26
2.3.4 Ease of making progress 26
Box: Interventions under consideration which did not reach the final stage 27
2.3.5 What next steps can people take 27
Appendix – Methodology 30
EXISTENTIAL RISK: DIPLOMACY AND GOVERNANCE3GLOBAL PRIORITIES PROJECT 2017
Executive summary
T
he 2015 Paris Agreement represented a huge
global effort to safeguard future generations
from damaging climate change. But climate
change is not the only serious risk to humanity. Our
collective commitment to our children and future
generations needs to extend to all existential risks
— those with the potential to permanently curtail
humanity’s opportunity to flourish. These risks in-
clude nuclear war, engineered pandemics, and other
catastrophes resulting from emerging technologies.
These disasters could cause an almost unimag-
inable loss. They would lead to immediate harm, but
in their most extreme forms, they have the potential
to wipe out humanity entirely.
Such risks may seem unlikely and distant. Indeed,
in any one year they are improbable. But small prob-
abilities accumulate - and because disaster risk re-
duction is a global public good individual nations
will tend to underinvest in it. Nuclear weapons and
climate change themselves would have once been
unimaginable. It may be that emerging technologies
introduce new risks that are even harder to manage.
Managing existential risk may prove to be the deci-
sive geopolitical challenge of the 21st century.
The first half of this report offers an overview of
existential risks. The second half presents three op-
portunities for humanity to reduce these risks. These
were chosen with the help of over 50 researchers
and policy-makers out of more than 100 proposals
emerged from three workshops at the University of
Oxford and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Helsinki.
For each of these opportunities, humanity will
require increasing levels of trust and internation-
al collaboration in order to face the challenges that
threaten us all. Moreover, these risks are constantly
evolving, and understanding them will need deep
and sustained engagement with the global research
community.
We hope that this report will go some way to ad-
vancing the discussion about the management of
existential risks, and inspire action from well-placed
individuals and institutions.
DEVELOP GOVERNANCE OF
GEOENGINEERING RESEARCH
Geoengineering technologies like Solar Radiation
Management have the potential to mitigate risks
from climate change, while at the same time posing
risks of their own. The current lack of international
norms on acceptable research practices may well be
holding back safe exploration of climate engineering
options.
ESTABLISH SCENARIO PLANS AND EXERCISES
FOR SEVERE ENGINEERED PANDEMICS AT THE
INTERNATIONAL LEVEL
Existing scenario planning focuses on modest out-
breaks at a mostly national level. As the 2015 Ebola
outbreak showed, nations do not respond in isola-
tion. Planning must become increasingly internation-
al, and should prepare for low-probability high-im-
pact scenarios of pathogens synthesised to be more
harmful than any naturally occurring disease.
BUILD INTERNATIONAL ATTENTION AND
SUPPORT FOR EXISTENTIAL RISK REDUCTION
Existential risks are typically transnational and in-
tergenerational. Overcoming them will need creative
solutions to collective action problems, and shared
political will. This will require the international com-
munity to build international capacity and draw the
attention of national governments and international
organisations to existential risk.
GLOBAL PRIORITIES PROJECT 20174EXISTENTIAL RISK: DIPLOMACY AND GOVERNANCE
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