在总结现有棉花价格预测相关研究的基础上，采用马尔科夫链和模糊加权
马尔科夫链预测棉花价格；在价格预测的基础上，放宽传统经济订货批量模型
的假设条件，建立需求确定下允许缺货、需求确定下不允许缺货和需求不确定
下允许缺货三种情况的棉纺织企业库存优化模型，最后针对模型进行了案例分
析，求出了价格波动下原材料最优经济订货批量和订货周期，并对需求确定允
许缺货和不允许缺货条件下影响经济订货批量的各因素做了敏感性分析。结果
显示，本研究建立的原材料价格波动下棉纺织企业的库存优化模型能够使库存
总成本最小，需求确定下影响经济订货批量各因素按影响幅度由大到小依次为
需求量、单位变动订货成本、棉花预测价格、资金年利息率、单位变动储存成
本、缺货率。本研究建立的不同条件下的库存优化模型对完善库存管理理论有
一定的帮助，得到的结果对棉纺织企业原材料库存优化决策具有一定的指导
关键词:棉花；价格预测；库存优化II
Abstract
In recent years,China&39;s cotton price was influenced by the fluctuations of supply
and demand,land,laber,and policies etc.The price’ fluctuation largely affected cotton
spinning enterprises’ profits and inventory management.The procurement largely
affected the operating costs.In the case of cotton industry climate index continuing to
decline, some cotton spinning enterprises purchased contton at the time they needed
to purchase scarce high-quality cotton to ensure production for reducing inventories
costs and fluctuations of raw materials price.With the further rise of purchase price
index and decline of the inventory index of raw materials,cotton spinning enterprises
increasingly serious backloged inventory,cotton yarn prices falled influenced by
cotton prices and inventory With intensifying competition,cotton spinning enterprises’
profits are getting smaller.The competitions between cotton textile enterprises were
gradually increased.In the complex and volatile economic environment,cotton
spining enterprises should achieve reasonable inventory control.The study of raw
material price fluctuation had a positive effect to improve the management level and
enhance the competitiveness of cotton spinning enterprises.
Based on the study of existing cotton price forecasting,we used Markov chain
and fuzzy weighted Markov chain to predict cotton prices.On the basis of forecasting
price,we introduced cotton spinning enterprises’inventory optimization models of
allowed stockout,not allowed stockout under certain demand,allowed stockout under
uncertain demand.We conducted cases study and performed sensitivity analysis of
under certain demand.The results show that the models can reduce the total inventory
costs.The influence from large to small of various factors on economic order quantity
were the unit changes ordering costs,cotton forecast price,capital interest rate, unit
changes in storage costs, stockout rate.The models under different conditions helped
perfect the inventory management theory and had certain guidance to the inventory
optimization decision of cotton textile enterprises.
Key words:cotton;price predict;inventory optimizationIII
目 录
摘要...I
Abstract II
目 录.III
1 绪论...1
1.1 研究背景........1
1.2 研究目的和意义........2
1.2.1 研究目的.........2
1.2.2 研究意义........3
1.3 研究方法及研究内容3
1.3.1 研究方法.........3
1.3.2 研究思路........4
1.4 研究的重点及难点....5
1.5 可能的创新点6
2 文献综述......7
2.1 国内外棉花价格预测研究综述........7
2.2 国内外库存管理研究综述....9
2.3 国内外 EOQ 模型研究综述10
2.4 国内外原材料价格随机波动的库存优化模型文献综述 ..12
2.5 对上述文献的简评..13
3 理论基础和研究方法........15
3.1 马尔科夫链预测方法..........15
3.1.1 马尔科夫链及预测方法.......15
3.1.2 模糊加权马尔可夫链及预测方法 ..17
3.2 库存管理理论及方法.........19
3.2.1 库存及库存控制的定义.......19
3.2.2 库存的作用..19
3.2.3 库存产生的问题.......20IV
3.2.4 库存管理理论及方法...........20
3.3 本章小结......22
4 棉花价格预测.........23
4.1 基于马尔科夫链的棉花价格波动状态预测 ..........23
4.1.1 状态转移概率矩阵的建立...23
4.1.2 棉花价格波动预测结果分析...........24
4.2 基于马尔科夫链的棉花价格预测..24
4.2.1 状态转移概率矩阵的建立...24
4.2.2 棉花价格预测结果分析.......26
4.3 基于模糊加权马尔科夫链的棉花价格预测 ..........27
4.3.1 各阶状态转移概率矩阵的建立.......27
4.3.2 初始状态向量的确立...........28
4.3.3 棉花价格预测结果分析.......29
4.4 本章小结......30
5 棉纺织企业库存优化结果.33
5.1 棉纺织企业原材料库存现状.........
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