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MGI_Digital_globalization_Full_report2016年3月

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文本描述
Broadening participationBoosting productivity
and GDP
Changing the way
companies go global
857343
HIGHLIGHTS
MARCH 2016
DIGITAL GLOBALIZATION:
THE NEW ERA OF GLOBAL FLOWS
CopyrightMcKinsey & Company 2016
In the 25 years since its founding, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) has sought to develop
a deeper understanding of the evolving global economy. As the business and economics
research arm of McKinsey & Company, MGI aims to provide leaders in the commercial,
public, and social sectors with the facts and insights on which to base management and
policy decisions. We are proud to be ranked the top private-sector think tank, according
to the authoritative 2015 Global Go To Think Tank Index, an annual report issued by the
University of Pennsylvania Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program at the Lauder Institute.
MGI research combines the disciplines of economics and management, employing the
analytical tools of economics with the insights of business leaders. Our “micro-to-macro”
methodology examines microeconomic industry trends to better understand the broad
macroeconomic forces affecting business strategy and public policy. MGI’s in-depth reports
have covered more than 20 countries and 30 industries. Current research focuses on six
themes: productivity and growth, natural resources, labor markets, the evolution of global
fnancial markets, the economic impact of technology and innovation, and urbanization.
Recent reports have assessed global fows; the economies of Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria, and
Japan; China’s digital transformation; India’s path from poverty to empowerment; affordable
housing; the effects of global debt; and the economics of tackling obesity.
MGI is led by three McKinsey & Company directors: RichardDobbs, JamesManyika,
and JonathanWoetzel. MichaelChui, SusanLund, AnuMadgavkar, and JaanaRemes
serve as MGI partners. Project teams are led by the MGI partners and a group of senior
fellows, and include consultants from McKinsey & Company’s offces around the world.
These teams draw on McKinsey & Company’s global network of partners and industry and
management experts. In addition, leading economists, including Nobel laureates, act as
research advisers.
The partners of McKinsey & Company fund MGI’s research; it is not commissioned by
any business, government, or other institution. For further information about MGI and to
download reports, please visit www.mckinsey/mgi.
James Manyika | San Francisco
Susan Lund | Washington, DC
Jacques Bughin | Brussels
Jonathan Woetzel | Shanghai
Kalin Stamenov | New York
Dhruv Dhringra | New York
MARCH 2016
DIGITAL GLOBALIZATION:
THE NEW ERA OF GLOBAL FLOWS
PREFACE
The web of global economic connections is growing deeper, broader, and
more intricate. Yet much of the public discussion surrounding globalization
is stuck on the narrow topic of trade surpluses and defcits. This lens fails to
take into account the new and more complex reality of a digitally connected
global economy. While the global goods trade and fnancial fows have
fattened since the Great Recession, cross-border fows of data are surging.
They now tie the world economy together just as surely as fows of traditional
manufactured goods.
Two years ago, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) set out to paint a
comprehensive picture of how globalization is evolving. The resulting report,
Global fows in a digital age: How trade, fnance, people, and data connect the
world economy
, assessed the network of cross-border infows and outfows
of trade, services, fnance, people, and data and its infuence on economic
growth. Building on that earlier work, this report provides a more detailed
analysis of how global fows are continuing to evolve. It offers new insights
into how companies and countries are participating in the web of fows and
extends our econometric analysis, drawing on improved data and employing
more sophisticated methodology. We fnd even stronger evidence of the
economic value of participating in global fows—and we further fnd that
data fows account for a substantial portion of that impact. Both infows and
outfows matter for growth as they circulate ideas, research, technologies,
talent, and best practices around the world.
Today’s more digital form of globalization is changing who is participating, how
business is done across borders, how rapidly competition moves, and where
the economic benefts are fowing. Even though advanced economies in
general continue to be the leaders in most fows, the door has opened to more
countries, to small companies and startups, and to billions of individuals. Our
previous research found the biggest benefts of trade fows go to countries at
the center of the global network. Interestingly, this report fnds that countries at
the periphery of the network of data fows stand to gain even more than those
at the center. The convergence of globalization and digitization means that
business leaders and policy makers will need to reassess their strategies—and
given that we are only in the very early stages of this phenomenon, enormous
opportunities are still at stake.
This research was led by JamesManyika, a director of the McKinsey Global
Institute based in San Francisco; SusanLund, an MGI partner based in
Washington, DC; JacquesBughin, a McKinsey director based in Brussels
who is a core leader of the Firm’s High Tech, Telecom, and Media Practice,
a current member of the MGI Council, and an incoming director of MGI; and
JonathanWoetzel, an MGI director based in Shanghai. The project team, led
by KalinStamenov and DhruvDhingra, included LauraCappelin, RiteshJain,
AyushMittal, KatieRamish, SoyokoUmeno, and AmberYang. EstebanArias,
CarlosMolina, MoiraPierce, and VivienSinger provided valuable research
and analytics support. LisaRenaud served as senior editor. Sincere thanks
go to our colleagues in operations, design, production, and external relations,
including TimBeacom, MarisaCarder, MattCooke, DeadraHenderson,
RichardJohnson, JuliePhilpot, MaryReddy, RebecaRobboy,
MargoShimasaki, and PatrickWhite.
We thank McKinsey colleagues JrgBromberger, MichaelChui, Diaan-YiLin,
and SreeRamaswamy for sharing their expertise and insights. Special thanks
go to the volunteers who helped us conduct our survey of global startups:
RicardoBernal, MayankBishnoi, OleksandrBondarenko, TamasCsikai,
KarolDolega, RishikaGarg, ThomasGrandin, CatherineHart, ValeriaLaszlo,
MohatoLekena, ThandiLuzuka, VictoriaMuwanga-Zake, MohitNarotam, and
SiyiAmyShi.
Our academic advisers provided valuable insights and challenged our
thinking. We are grateful to MatthewJ.Slaughter, the Paul Danos Dean of the
Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth; MichaelSpence, Nobel laureate and
William R. Berkley Professor in Economics and Business at NYU Stern School
of Business; and LauraTyson, professor of business administration and
economics at the Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley.
MeritE.Janow, dean of the School of International and Public Affairs at
Columbia University, offered new perspectives and directions for our research.
PhilipR.Lane, Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland and former Whatley
Professor of Political Economy at Trinity College, Dublin, generously shared
data and perspectives on the international investment positions of countries.
A number of individuals and organizations generously contributed their
time, data, and expertise. For their support in surveying startups, we thank:
DonnaHarris, PatrickMcAnaney, MorganGress, and KaitlinWalls of 1776,
a global incubator and venture fund dedicated to accelerating innovation
in areas of essential human need. We are also gra