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通信_Auguststats_CUsubsmomentumimproves

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文本描述
Deutsche Bank
Markets Research
Asia
Hong Kong
Telecommunications
Industry
Chinese Telecom
Sector
Date
20 September 2017
Industry Update
August stats ¨C CU subs momentum
improves
Pleasing signs... but too early to make much of it
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should
be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should
consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST
CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017.
James Wang
Research Analyst
(+852 )2203 6145
james-z.wang@db
Peter Milliken, CFA
Research Analyst
(+852 )2203 6190
peter.milliken@db
Top picks
China Telecom Corp (0728.HK),HKD3.91 Buy
China Unicom (0762.HK),HKD11.44 Buy
China Mobile (0941.HK),HKD80.70 Buy
Source: Deutsche Bank
Companies Featured
China Telecom Corp (0728.HK),HKD3.91 Buy
2016A 2017E 2018E
P/E (x) 14.6 13.5 12.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.7 3.6 3.4
Price/book (x) 0.8 0.8 0.8
China Unicom (0762.HK),HKD11.44 Buy
2016A 2017E 2018E
P/E (x) 291.6 68.7 31.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.2 3.0 2.5
Price/book (x) 0.8 1.0 0.9
China Mobile (0941.HK),HKD80.70 Buy
2016A 2017E 2018E
P/E (x) 14.2 12.2 11.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.4 3.4 3.2
Price/book (x) 1.5 1.4 1.4
Source: Deutsche Bank
Sector revenue growth picked up to 5.9% YoY in the year to August from 5.6%
in 1H17 driven by improvement in mobile while fixed broadband revenue
growth was unchanged. CM and CT saw broadly the same subs trends as prior
months while CU had the most significant improvement in mobile with net
adds increasing to 2.3m in August (vs an average of 1m this year) and 4G net
adds up to 7.5m (vs an average of 5.8m). It is pleasing to see the improvement
in CU, though it is still early days as the net adds could be inflated by some
back to school promotions.
Limited competition impact seen
Mobile service revenue growth improved from 4.6% in 1H17 to ~6% in July
and August, suggesting that the introduction of large data plans has benefited
industry revenue to-date, rather than as a drag. Our review of company
websites also suggests no material change in the large data plans pricing to-
date. As we have discussed in our 1H17 review, with the unlimited data plans
still priced 60-70% above current ARPU, this should continue to be supportive
of ARPU improvement in the sector.
Figure 1: Telco revenue growthFigure 2: Revenue growth by
segment
0%
5%
10%
Aug-Feb-Aug-Feb-Aug-Feb-Aug-5.2%
6.7%
5.6%4.6%
8.2%
5.6%5.0%
8.2%
5.9%
0%1%
2%3%
4%5%
6%7%
8%
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