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文本描述
| 1
MERICS
CHINA
MONITOR
Main fndings and conclusions:
China?ˉs economy is facing tough times. Long-standing
growth drivers, in particular export-oriented mass produc-
tion and low wages, are no longer pulling their weight. So
far the shift to lower economic growth has been mild, but
the downward pressure will intensify.
The structural transformation of China?ˉs economy has
only just begun. The desired industrial modernisation and
boost to China?ˉs innovation capacity will only be seen in
the long term. Fearing mass layofs, the Chinese govern-
ment only hesitantly initiates urgently needed reforms.
To remedy the situation, the Chinese government is betting
on the service sector. As a new driver for economic growth
and jobs, it should fll the void created by a decline in indus-
trial growth. This makes the service sector a bottleneck for
structural transformation.
The service sector lacks the strength to be a strong growth
driver. At present, service sector growth is merely having a
stabilising efect on the economy as a whole. Were it not
for growth bubbles in the fnance and real estate sectors,
overall growth would be lower.
A start-up boom initiated by the government glosses over
a gloomier picture. Job creation in the service sector is not
enough to ofset job losses in manufacturing.
In order to achieve the politically desired annual growth
target for gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 6.5 per
cent until 2020, the government will need to rely on invest-
ment-driven growth.
Failing to advance structural reforms while artifcially main-
taining stable economic growth is a dangerous mix. A much
harsher slump looms for China?ˉs economy after 2020.
China?ˉs overrated
serviCe seCtor
Missing dynamics threaten growth target
Max J. Zenglein
13 October 2016
MERICS | Mercator Institute for China Studies| 2CHINA MONITOR | 13 October 2016
ERI
CS
%
Shaky pillars of growth ¨C
China?ˉs service sector is overrated
CHINA?ˉS ECONOMY
WHOLESALE
AND
RETAIL
HOTEL
AND
CATERING
FINANCE
REAL ESTATE
TRANSPORTATIO
N
AND LOGISTICS
IT,
ENVIRONMENTAL
SERVICES,
HEALTH CARE
SERVICE SECTOR
GROWTH TA
RGET
MERICS | Mercator Institute for China Studies| 3CHINA MONITOR | 13 October 2016
1. Slowing growth challenges
China
China?ˉs lasting double-digit economic growth has been the envy
of many Western governments. But times have changed: China?ˉs
growth has been falling every year since 2011, when it was
9.3 per cent. In 2015, GDP growth was down to 6.9 per cent.1
This is more than just a temporary dip but evidence of
a structural transition. Export-driven manufacturing
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