摘要
在世界经济一体化的大背景下，企业也迎来了发展的黄金时期，但与之相对应的挑
战也接踵而来，企业想要始终保持稳定的增长并在市场竞争中突围，就需要科学的进行
库存管理。如今很多企业存在这样的问题：高销量往往伴随高库存，该模式下企业极易
产生过剩的库存，令企业面临更高的成本，影响企业利润。一些企业还基于库存制约，
导致流动资金不足，严重的企业还会面临生存和发展的威胁。因此，很多大型企业将降
低积压库存列入企业的重要战略之一，如何让解决库存积压问题将直接影响企业的发
展

本文以 L 企业作为调研对象，从该企业和企业内部的职能体系的研究出发，通过结
合 L 企业库存管理的现状，给出了意见和建议。库存积压问题已严重制约了 L 企业的发
展，企业向要发展，解决这一问题已经变得刻不容缓。究其深层原因，该问题产生的主
要原因包括：(1)需求预测失准；(2)管理体制不完善；(3)人为因素、海关扣押和汇率上
升等其他不确定性因素。进而提出 L 企业库存积压问题的解决方法和改进措施：(1)对历
史数据重新整理和分类，并在此基础上进行多种需求预测方式的测试，并选择一种较精
准的方式作为企业新的需求预测方式，同时进行供应链管理，要求供应商参与到需求预
测过程中来；(2)运用 ABC 分类法和设置安全库存来调整库存结构，优化业务流程中库
存管理相关环节并增设相关考核制度，同时还要推广和普及 ERP 与其系统中库存管理相
关功能模块的使用以及 RFID 技术下的智能化仓库管理方式；(3)对内严格库存管理审核
制度，加强库存管理人员的培训，对外熟悉尼日利亚当地政策，与当地政府建立关系，
另外通过远期结汇等方式来避免或降低汇率上升等其他不确定因素可能带来的消极影
响

库存积压问题的解决，不仅需要企业业务流程的优化和管理方法的改进，还需要完
善的信息系统技术平台的支持，最重要的是企业人员的贯彻执行和有效配合。以此为前
提，企业才能建立起科学高效的库存管理体系，实现资源的合理配置，企业的货物流通
渠道才能畅通无阻，让企业的正常运转成为可能，更好的在市场当中争取到一席之地

关键词：库存积压， 库存管理， 需求预测III
Research on the inventory backlog of L enterprise
Abstract
Today,with the global economic intergration,many companies are not only facing their golden
age,but also the relatively challenge.For those companies who want to maintain a steady growth
and meanwhile break through the competition,they must do a scientific inventory
management.Many companies are facing such problem:high sales often accompanied by high
inventories,under such mode,superfluous stock would come into being very easy,this will make the
company&39;s cost higher and influent the profit.And the restriction of the superflous stock will lead to
the lack of liquidity,even threaten the company&39;s survival and development.So many large
companies will take reducing the backlog stocking as one of the company&39;s most important
strategies.How to solve the problem of inventory backlog will directly affect the development of
company.
In this paper,we take L company as the research object.Starting from the research of L
company and its internal function system,combine with its present inventory management and
finally give the opinios and suggestion.Inventory backlog problem has seriously restricted the
development of L company.So it becomes urgent to solve this problem.Investigate its deep
reasons,the main cause of the problem include:1,the incorrect predicition for the
demand:2,improper management;3,uncertain factors such as human being factors,custom
problem,the currency devaluation and so on.So finally we get the solution of the backlog stock
problem for L company and also the improvement measure:1,Reorganize and classify the historical
data,then based on this,do different test for the multiple demand perditions;2,Using ABC
classification and set up safety stock to adjust inventory structure,optimize the business process
inventory management related links and add the related appraisal system,but also to promote and
popularize the ERP system in inventory management with the use of related function modules and
RFID technology,the intelligent warehouse management approach;3,Performing the inventory
management system strictly,strengthening training for the inventory management personnel.Be
familiar with Nigeria local policies,establish the relationship with local government.Avoid or
reduce the negative impaction caused by the currency devaluation and so on uncertain factors by
using the forward settlement of exchange and so on other ways.
To solve the problem of backlog stock,not only need the optimation of the business process
and improvement of the management method,but also the support from an perfect information
system,the most important is the fully implementation and effective cooperation from the
employess.Premise,the company then can establish and efficient inventory managementIV
system,realize the rational allocation of resources,can dear cargo circulation channel and make it
possible for the normal operation of the company,to win a better place inside the market.
Key Words：backlog, inventory control, demand forcastingV
目 录
1 绪论 ...1
1.1 研究背景与意义....... 1
1.1.1 研究背景......... 1
1.1.2 研究意义......... 1
1.2 国内外研究综述....... 3
1.2.1 基于需求预测要求的国内外库存管理理论研究 .. 3
1.2.2 基于管理方法改进的国内外库存管理理论研究 .. 3
1.2.3 基于不确定因素的国内外库存管理理论研究 ...... 4
1.3 研究方法和思路....... 5
1.3.1 研究方法......... 5
1.3.2 研究思路......... 5
1.4 论文框架 ....... 6
2 库存积压问题下的相关库存管理理论.....8
2.1 库存管理和库存积压........... 8
2.1.1 库存管理概述8
2.1.2 库存积压的形成 ........ 8
2.2 库存管理模型 ......... 10
2.2.1 传统库存管理模型 .. 10
2.2.2 现代库存管理模型 .. 10
2.3 ERP 在库存管理中的应用. 13
2.4 本章小结 ..... 13
3 L 企业概况及库存管理现状........ 14
3.1 L 企业概况 .. 14
3.1.1 企业组织架构 .......... 14
3.1.2 业务流程图... 17
3.2 企业内外部环境和状况..... 17VI
3.2.1 行业压力大...17
3.2.2 内外部供货商之间存在竞争..........18
3.2.3 外部供应上与同行存在需求冲突.
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