摘要
当前,在生态环境恶化、市场需求持续增强、国家政策大力扶持等因
素的合力推动下,生态农业获得了突飞猛进的发展,生态农业项目如雨后
春笋,遍地开花,企业作为投资主体逐渐占据主导地位。但是,大部分企
业管理者对生态农业项目的投资经营存在盲目性,对其面临的错综复杂的
系统性高风险缺乏认知,对风险的防控更是被动应付,缺乏科学有效的管
理方法。本文将项目风险管理理论引入生态农业项目风险管理领域中,以
提高管理者的风险意识和风险管理能力,降低投资盲目性,促进生态农业
项目健康发展

本文研究了生态农业与项目风险管理的相关理论,通过文献的研究和
对相关专家的调査,结合BD公司的项目实际情况,对企业生态农业项目
风险关键影响因素进行了识别,确定了 7类26个关键性因素,并以此构
造了符合生态农业项目实际的科学合理的风险评价指标体系;从生态农业
项目风险的系统性特点出发,运用层次分析与模糊综合评价相结合的方法
对风险进行综合评价,并以S生态农业项目为例进行了风险评价研究,验
证了所构建评价指标体系的合理性与评价方法的有效性;进而根据评价结
果进行总结分析,提出了具有针对性的风险应对措施。希望本文的研究能
为其它生态农业项目管理者提供借鉴,从而提高其风险管理水平

I
北京化工大学专业硕士学位论文
关键词.生态农业,项目风险管理,层次分析法,模糊综合评价法
II
ABSTRACT
Research on Risk Management of Eco - agriculture Project
-Take BD Company S Project as an Example
ABSTRACT
At present, the environment deteriorated sharply, and ecological
agriculture caused widespread concern. With the strong support of national
policies and the continuous improvement of market demand, ecological
agriculture has developed by leaps and bounds. Eco-agriculture projects
abound, and enterprises have gradually dominated as the main body of
investment. However, most of the business managers of the ecological
agriculture project investment and management have blindness. They are not
aware of the high risk to be faced, the risk prevention and control ability is
poor, and even the lack of scientific and effective management methods. Based
on the study of risk management theory, this paper puts forward the risk
management theory suitable for ecological agriculture. Hoping to improve the
managers of risk awareness and risk management capabilities, reduce
investment blindness, and promote the healthy development of
eco-agricultural projects.
Based on the theory of eco - agriculture and project risk management,
this paper identifies the key influencing factors of eco - agriculture project risk
by reading literature and expert research and combining with the actual
situation of BD project. As a result, seven key risk factors were identified, and
a scientific and rational ecological agriculture project risk evaluation index
hi
北京化工大学专业硕士学位论文
system was established. In this paper, according to the systematic
characteristics of the risk factors of ecological agriculture projects, the fiizzy
AHP comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the risk. At the
same time, taking the S ecological agriculture project as an example, the
rationality of the evaluation index system and the validity of the evaluation
method are verified. According to the evaluation results, the paper puts
forward the corresponding countermeasures. It is hoped that the research of
this paper will provide reference for other eco-agricultural project managers to
improve their risk management level.
KEY WORDS : ecological agriculture,project risk management,analytic
hierarchy process, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method
IV
目录
第一章绪论 1
1.1研究的背景与意义1.1.1研究背景 1
1.1.2研究意义 2
1.2研究现状 2
1.2.1生态农业研究现状1.2.2风险管理研究现状1.2.3 小结 6
1.3研究的内容、方法与技术路线1.3_1研究的主要内容1.3.2研究的方法 7
1.3.3技术路线 8
1.4研究的难点与创新点1.4.1研究的难点 9
1.4.2研究的创新点 9
第二章生态农业项目风险管理相关理论2.1项目风险管理相关理论2.1.1风险与风险管理2.1.2项目风险与项目风险管理2.2生态农业项目风险管理相关理论2.2.1生态农业的概念2.2.2生态农业项目风险管理2.3本章小结 15
第三章生态农业项目风险因棄识别3.1 BD公司S生态农业项目概况3.1.1 BD公司概述 17
3.1.2S生态农业项目概述V
北京化工大学专业硕士学位论文
3.2生态农业项目风险识别的概念与过程3.2.1生态农业项目风险识别的概念3.2.2生态农业项目风险识别的过程3.3生态农业项目风险识别方法3.3.1头脑风暴法 19
3.3.2情景分析法 19
3.3.3德尔菲法 19
3.4生态农业项目风险因素分析3.4.1自然环境风险3.4.2社会环境风险3.4.3市场环境风险
21
3.4.4法律政策风险
22
3.4.5管理风险 23
3A6技术风险 25
3.4.7财务风险 26
3.5生态农业项目关键性风险因素识别
26
3.6本章小结 28
第四章生态农业项目风除评价研究
29
4.1规划生态农业项目风险评价流程
29
4.2构建S生态农业项目风险评价指标体系
29
4.3确定S生态农业项目风险评价方法
30
4.3.1层次分析法 31
4.3.2模糊层次综合评价法
34
4.4计算S生态农业项目风险评价指标权重
35
4.4.1建立层次结构模型
35
4.4.2构造两两判断矩阵
36
4.4.3计算因素权重并进行一致性检验
38
4.4.4计算综合重要度,并排序

41
4.5模糊综合评价S生态农业项目风险
42
4.5.1确定多层次因素集
42
4.5.2确定评价集 42
4.5.3建立模糊综合评价集
42
4.5.4确定权重集 45
VI
4.5.5模糊综合评价
45
4.5.6计算评价结果
47
4.6分析S生态农业项目风险评价结果
48
4.7本章小结 48
第五章生态农业项目风险应对措施
49
5.1设立专职性项目风险管理机构
49
5.2实施针对性的风险应对措施
49
5.2.1自然环境风险应对措施
49
5.2.2社会环境风险应对措施
50
5.2.3市场环境风险应对措施
51
5.2.4法律政策风险应对措施
52
5.2.5管理风险应对措施
53
5.2.6技术风险应对措施
56
5.2.7财务风险应对措施
57
5.3建立动态风险监控与预瞀体系
57
5.4本章小结 58
第六章结论与展望
59
6.1结论 59
6.2 醒 60
参考文献 61
致谢 65
作者辟师简介
67
VII Contents
Contents
Chapter 1 Introduction1.1 Research background and significance1.1.1 Research background1.1.2 Research significance1.2 Research Status 2
1.2.1 Status of ecological agriculture research1.2.2 Status of risk management research1.2.3 Summary 6
1.3 Research content, methods and technical routes1.3.1 Main contents of the study1.3.2 Methods of research1.3.3 Technical route1.4 Difficulties and Innovations in Research1.4.1 Difficulties in Research1.4.2 Innovation of ResearchChapter 2 Relevant theories of risk management for eco - agriculture
projects 11
2.1 Project Risk Management Related Theory2.1.1 Risk and Risk Management2.1.2 Project Risk and Project Risk Management2.2 The theory of risk management of eco-agriculture project2.2.1 The concept of eco-agriculture2.2.2 Risk Management of Eco-agriculture Project2.3 Chapter SummaryChapter 3 Identification of Risk Factors in Eco - agriculture Project 17
3.1 Overview of BD Company S Ecological Agriculture ProjectIX
北京化工大学专业硕士学位论文
3.1.1 BD Company&39;s Profile3.1.2 Overview of S Eco-agriculture Project3.2 The concept and process of ecological agriculture project risk
identification 18
3.2.1 The concept of ecological agriculture project risk identification3.2.2 The process of ecological agriculture project risk identification3.3 Methods of risk identification for eco - agriculture projects3.3.1 Brai
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