摘要
国家电网公司―两个转变‖和―三集五大‖体系建设的深入推进，总部和省（市）两级
运营监测（控）中心战略部署得到逐渐落实，从顶层设计、详细设计、系统开发和联合
调试等环节建立了两级运营监测（控）中心，通过对电网运营关键指标、重要资源、核
心业务的在线监测、分析，发现异动或问题，并迅速协调解决，很大程度上提高了公司
的整体运营效率和效益。本文根据陕西公司战略发展目标和经营目标，对影响公司经营
绩效的主要风险进行识别、分析与评估，尝试建立经营风险管理的认责、监控、评价与
协调控制体系，实现对公司经营风险的闭环管理。本文把经营风险的研究范围定位于在
―三集五大‖核心业务模块中，选择其中直接影响企业经营效益目标、资产或资源安全与
效率的各种经营风险作为本文的研究对象。论文主要研究内容如下：
首先，介绍了电网运营风险管理研究的背景意义，梳理了公司运营风险管理理论基
础。首先，从风险管理理论和电网运营风险两个维度阐述了省级电网的运营预警防控的
重要意义。然后，介绍了风险管理的理论内涵、风险分析与控制方法，后者包括风险识
别方法、风险度量程度和风险控制内容。最后，介绍了风险评价理论及方法。上述内容
研究，为论文开展陕西省电网运营风险管控铺垫了前提背景

然后，建立了陕西省电网运营风险识别与分析模型。首先，确定了电网经营效益目
标和经营业务活动内容。然后，从经营风险识别流程、经营风险初步分析和经营风险事
件分析三个方面进行了陕西省电网经营风险识别与分析。最后，提出了陕西省电网重大
经营风险确认思路，为开展电网经营风险度量与评估提供了核心指标

再然后，构建了陕西省电网经营风险度量与评估模型。首先，建立了经营风险关系
关联分析模型，主要包括目标影响模型构建、影响效益目标分解、关键影响因素分析和
影响关系管理分析等内容。然后，提出了经营风险价值量化分析模型，包括风险价值影
响模型、风险因素敏感分析和管理分析、目标风险水平预测和风险控制联动风险等内容

最后，提出了经营风险多重分析评估模型，评估了风险发生的可能性、影响程度、等级
和控制水平等。上述研究内容量化分析了陕西省电网经营风险，为决策者开展电网运营
风险管控提供了前提依据

最后，提出了陕西省电网经营风险监测与管控策略。首先，对经营效益目标进行了
分析，包括目标监测策略和目标指标监测两部分。然后，提出了经营风险指标监测策略，
包括风险指标监测管理、风险指标监测流程。再然后，分析了经营风险趋势和度量了经
营风险影响程度。最后，提出了经营风险应对策略及风险应对效果评价方法，为决策者
提供了电网运营风险监测与管控策略

关键词：电网；运营风险；识别；评估；管控；机制华北电力大学硕士学位论文
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Abstract
Along with the development of two changes and three sets of five of State Grid
Corporation of China, the headquarters and the province (city), these two stage operation
monitoring center for strategic deployment has been gradually implemented. On considering
the top-level design, detailed design, system development and debugging etc., the two-stage
operation monitoring was founded. By monitoring and analysis the power system operation
key index, important resources and core business online, it can find changes or problems, and
solve them immediately, which greatly improve the overall operational efficiency and benefit
of the company. This paper will have some effects on establishing a risk management system,
including accountability, monitoring, evaluation and coordination risks and will finally make
the company&39;s risk management closed loop. This paper scopes business risk located in the
three sets of five core business modules, which directly affect the business performance
objectives, assets or resources safety and efficiency of various risk management as the
research object of this paper. The main research contents are as follows:
Firstly, the paper introduces the background of the research on the risk management of
power grid operation, and summarizes the theoretical foundation of operational risk
management. This paper expounds the importance of early warning prevention and control of
provincial power grid from the two dimensions of risk management theory and grid operation
risk firstly. Then, it introduces the theoretical connotation, risk analysis and control method of
risk management. The latter includes risk identification method, risk measurement degree and
risk control content. Finally, the basic model of risk forecasting and the theory and method of
risk evaluation are introduced. The above content research, as the prerequisite for the
development of Shaanxi power grid operation risk control.
Secondly, a risk identification and analysis model for operation of Shaanxi power grid is
established. First of all, to determine the power grid operating efficiency objectives and
business activities. Then, the operation risk identification and analysis of Shaanxi power grid
are carried out from three aspects: operational risk identification process, operational risk
preliminary analysis and operational risk incident analysis. Finally, the author puts forward
the idea of confirming the significant operation risk of Shaanxi power grid, which provides
the core index for the measurement and evaluation of grid operation risk.
Then, the paper constructs the risk measurement and evaluation model of power grid
operation in Shaanxi province. First, business risk relationship analysis model is established,
including the impact of target-building model, the impact of the decomposition of the target,
the key impact factor analysis and impact management analysis and so on. Then, it puts
forward the quantitative model of operational risk value, including risk value model, risk
factor sensitivity analysis and management analysis, target risk level forecasting and risk
control linkage risk and so on. Finally, the risk analysis model is put forward, and the华北电力大学硕士学位论文
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possibility, influence degree, grade and control level of the risk are evaluated. The above
study quantitatively analyzes the operational risk of power grid in Shaanxi Province, which
provides a basis for policy makers to carry out grid operation risk management.
Finally, the paper puts forward the strategy of monitoring and controlling the operation
risk of power grid in Shaanxi province. Firstly, it analyzes the management benefit target,
including target monitoring strategy and goal target monitoring. Then, the paper puts forward
the operational risk index monitoring strategy, including risk index monitoring and
management, risk index monitoring process. Then, it analyzes the trend of business risk and
measures the degree of influence of operational risk. Finally, it puts forward the operational
risk coping strategy and the risk coping effect evaluation method, and provides policy
monitoring and control strategy for power grid operation risk.
Key words: power grid; operational risk; identification; evaluation; control; mechanism华北电力大学硕士学位论文
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目 录
摘要.....I
AbstractII
第 1 章 绪论......1
1.1 研究背景意义..1
1.1.1 研究背景........
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