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2017年东亚与太平洋地区半年报告英文版_196页

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Sustaining Resilience WORLD BANK EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC ECONOMIC UPDATE APRIL 2017 WORLD BANK EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC ECONOMIC UPDATE APRIL 2017 Sustaining Resilience 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone:202-473-1000; Internet: worldbank Some rights reserved 123420191817 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The fndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily refect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifcally reserved. Rights and Permissions This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) http://creativecommons/ licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions: Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: World Bank.2017.“Sustaining Resilience” East Asia and Pacifc Economic Update (April), World Bank, Washington, DC. Doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1086-2 License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an offcial World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation. Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank. Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to re-use a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, fgures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group,1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank. ISBN (electronic):978-1-4648-1086-2 DOI:10.1596/978-1-4648-1086-2 Cover photo:Aileen Dimatatac / World Bank. Further permission required for reuse. Cover design: Budy Wirasmo. Contents List of Abbreviations xiii Preface and Acknowledgments xv Executive Summary xvii Part I. Recent Developments and Outlook 1 I.A. Recent Developments 2 Growth in developing East Asia and Pacifc remains resilient, also supported with some recovery in the external environment in the second half of 2016 and early 20172 Exports show early signs of recovery across much of the region 8 Domestic demand across much of the region was buoyant, refecting accommodative macroeconomic policies and tight labor markets 10 Private sector credit growth is moderating slightly, but debt stocks remain elevated 12 Infation is edging up, and producer prices are rising rapidly 13 Renewed capital outfows toward the end of 2016 led to exchange rate depreciations, but external fnancial conditions have stabilized in 201714 Recent developments in the Pacifc Island Countries 22 Poverty and inclusiveness: sustained progress, but challenges remain 22 I.B. Outlook and Risks 28 Growth is expected to moderate in China, but pick up slightly in the rest of the region 28 Poverty will continue to fall across most of the region, refecting rising labor incomes and low unemployment 32 Domestic demand will support growth, with a rising contribution from exports, across much of the region 33 The normalization of monetary policy in advanced economies may test the region’s resilience, especially in countries with elevated external debt, or high and rising private sector leverage 35 A sharp slowdown in world trade or in China could signifcantly affect the region 43 Fiscal defcits are expected to remain elevated in several countries, in some cases posing risks to fscal sustainability 44 The outlook for the Pacifc Island Countries is positive, but they remain especially vulnerable to shocks 49 I.C. Policy Considerations 54 Elevated global policy uncertainty places a large premium on macroeconomic prudence 54 Ensuring sustained growth and greater inclusion 57 References 82 SUSTAINING RESILIENCE LIST oF ConTEnTS III
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