GFMS METALS RESEARCHOVERVIEWChina debt worriespersist whilemetals postmulti-year highs.COPPER SUPPLYWATCHTightness, whattightnessNICKELSupply fearssupport, but lack ofliquidity maydampen mood.LME OPTIONSMONITORFresh OTM callspoint to furthergains.ZINCSupply tightnesscontinues, shortterm demandposes worries.BASE METALS & FERROUS UPDATEOCTOBER 2017LME Base Metals London.indd 117/10/201712:44:51S047825_a_v1.indd 14/24/173:46 PMLME Base Metals London.indd 217/10/201712:44:52S047825_a_v1.indd 14/24/173:46 PMGFMS Metals Research Base Metals & Ferrous Update ¨C October 2017IN THIS ISSUESUMMARY AND OVERVIEW4Even as industrial metals such as copper and zinc post fresh multi-year highs, caution persists in some quarters, including in thecountryˉs highest echelons, about the health of the Chinese economy and the vast and growing debt overhang that is fuellinggrowth.ZINC6While zincˉs supply crunch continues to support a bullish narrative and has sent prices to decade highs, the demand side mayhave the upper hand going forward. In particular the winter heating season cutbacks in northern China, a main galvanisingproduction hub, may dent short term demand.COPPER SUPPLY WATCH10 While copper supply disruptions dominated the market in early 2017, so far the second half has been a rather more relaxed affair.NICKEL12 The CIF premium for nickel full plate cathode has reached close to $300/tonne in China after the Golden Week holiday, boostedfrom $220 in early September by opening of arbitrage the window, restocking by stainless plants in late September, and inparticular the continued decline incathode inventories. SHFE stocks, which comprise only cathode, have touched their lowestlevel since end 2015.RESOURCE NATIONALISM IN MINING16 Increased resource nationalism is often a refection of an upturn in the cycle, and on the face of it the stars may seem to bealigning for the governments of resource-rich nations as metals prices rally. However, the sustainability of this uptrend remainsopen to question.IRON ORE18 With the Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) stepping up on its °war on pollution±, supply side reforms have been anendemic feature in the Chinese steelmaking industry in 2017. What then are the repercussions for miners producing differentgrades of iron ore Given the record stockpiles of iron ore across Chinese ports in 2017, are there any irreversible paradigm shiftsthat awaitLME OPTIONS MONITOR22 Open interest (OI) rose by 6,323 lots week-on-week on LME copper options to total 113,757 lots on the back of a 4,150 lot increaseon calls. Over the short term, speculators favoured the US$7,200/tonne Nov17 call contract. New OTM positions onNov17 andDec17 contracts point to a recovery this week as low vols lure speculators.M&A ACTIVITY30
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