19 September 2017 Pharmaceuticals / Biotechnology China Healthcare Health Care Health Care Industry Update Asia China Hong Kong Industry China Healthcare Date 19 September 2017 Deutsche Bank Markets Research Monthly Hospital Rx Tracker, July 2017 Weak growth momentum in July, agship drugs showing mixed results Total hospital drugs sales grew 1.7% in July, vs.1.9% and 7.3% in 1H17 and 2016, respectively. Oncology drugs, including Ai Tan (apatinib) and Duomeisu, maintained strong growth momentum in July. Hengrui&39;s Ai Tan and Kai Te Li, SBP&39;s Runzhong,3SBio&39;s EPIAO and TPIAO and CSPC&39;s NBP recorded growth of 128%,-13%,-3%,-18%,16% and 7% in July, vs.138%,20%,8%,-6%,8% and 17% in 1H17 and 637%,25%,26%,5%,33% and 33% in 2016. However, we caution investors that the aforementioned data might be selectively indicative only for correlation with reported data. Hengrui: apatinib continued to deliver, while Kai Te Li slowed The sales growth of agship products Ai Tan, Ai Li, Ai Su, Ai Heng, the atracurium series and Kai Te Li was 128%,16%,0%,-1%,8% and -13% in July 17 vs.138%, 14%,1%,0%,7% and 20% in 1H17 and 637%,13%,4%,0%,5% and 25% in 2016. On a three-month rolling basis, average growth for Ai Li and Ai Su was 16% and 3% in 3MJul17, vs.12% and -2% in 1H17 and 15% and 6% in 2016. SBP: Runzhong growth moderated; Kaifen remains solid Growth of major drugs Runzhong, Ganmei, Kaishi and Kaifen reached -3%,-6%, -18% and 21% in July vs.8%,0%,-10% and 20% in 1H17 and 26%,1%,-1% and 31% in 2016. On a three-month rolling basis, the average growth of Runzhong and Ganmei was 4% and -2% in 3MJul17, vs.8% and -1% in 1H17 and 34% and 5% in 2016. 3SBio: Yisaipu recovering slowly; SEPO continued robust growth 3SBio recorded growth for EPIAO and TPIAO at -18% and 16% in July 17, vs.-6% and 8% in 1H17, and 5% and 33% in 2016. Yisaipu&39;s growth was 2% YoY in July vs.-2% in 1H17 and 2% in 2016. SEPO delivered decent growth of 76% YoY in July, compared with 57% in 1H17. CSPC: growth acceleration from oncology franchise Flagship products NBP, Oulaining and Xuanning grew 7%,-7% and -4% in July 17 vs.17%,-9% and -1% in 1H17 and 33%,4% and 6% in 2016. Oncology drugs Duomeisu and Jinyouli enjoyed growth acceleration in July, posting 70% and 102% YoY growth, vs.48% and 96% in 1H17 and 120% and 180% during FY2016. On a three-month rolling basis, average growth of NBP and Oulaining was 15% and -5% in 3MJul17, vs.18% and -10% in 1H17 and 36% and 8% in 2016. Jack Hu, PhD Research Analyst +852-22036208 Megan Xu Research Associate +852-22035928 Top picks Hengrui Medicine (600276.SS),CNY58.55 Buy Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK),HKD7.75 Buy Universal Medical (2666.HK),HKD6.49Buy Source: Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the rm may have a conict of interest that could aect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P)083/04/2017. Distributed on:18/09/201716:21:11 GMT 0bed7b6cf11c 19 September 2017 Pharmaceuticals / Biotechnology China Healthcare Total hospital drug sales Up 1.7% YoY in July Total hospital drug sales grew 1.7% YoY in July vs.1.9% and 7.3% in 1H17 and FY16, respectively. On a quarterly basis, total drug sales registered growth of 2.1%,1.8%,6.2% and 5.1% during 2Q17,1Q17,4Q16 and 3Q16. Figure 1: Total hospital drug sales (January 2014– July 2017) -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%51525 30 Total hospital drug salesYoY growthRMBbn Source: Deutsche Bank, Chinese Pharmaceutical Association Page 2Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong 19 September 2017 Pharmaceuticals / Biotechnology China Healthcare Flagship drug data We summarize the growth details of the agship products of 13 drug companies in the following tables. We caution investors that monthly sales data are subject to seasonality, and rst quarter data are likely impacted by the CNY eect. Hengrui (600276.SS) ■Oncology drugs Ai Tan (apatinib), Ai Su (docetaxel), Ai Li (irinotecan), and Ai Heng (oxaliplatin) grew 128%,0%,16%, and -1% in July 17, vs. 138%,1%,14%, and 0% in 1H17 and 637%,4%,13%, and 0% in 2016. ■Anesthetic drugs Kai Te Li (sevourane) and Ioversol’s recorded growth of -13%/12% in July, vs.20% and 19% in 1H17 vs.25% and 18% in 2016. Figure 2: Three-month rolling average for Ai TanFigure 3: Three-month rolling average for Ai Su 0% 2000% 4000% 6000% 8000% 10000% 12000% 14000%26101418Ai TanYoY growth -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%1030 40 50 60 70 Ai SuYoY growth Source: Deutsche Bank, Chinese Pharmaceutical AssociationSource: Deutsche Bank, Chinese Pharmaceutical Association Figure 4: Three-month rolling average for Ai LiFigure 5: Three-month rolling average for Ai Heng -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%51525 30 35 Ai LiYoY growth -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%51525 30 Ai HengYoY growth Source: Deutsche Bank, Chinese Pharmaceutical AssociationSource: Deutsche Bank, Chinese Pharmaceutical Association Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongPage 3 19 September 2017 Pharmaceuticals / Biotechnology China Healthcare Figure 6: Three-month rolling average for Atracurium series Figure 7: Three-month rolling average for Ioversol 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%1030 40 50 60 Atracurium seriesYoY growth 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%1030 40 50 60 IoversolYoY growth Source: Deutsche Bank, Chinese Pharmaceutical AssociationSource: Deutsche Bank, Chinese Pharmaceutical Association Figure 8: Three-month rolling average for Kai Te Li 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%51525 30 35 40 45 50 Kai Te LiYoY growth Source: Deutsche Bank, Chinese Pharmaceutical Association Page 4Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong 19 September 2017 Pharmaceuticals / Biotechnology China Healthcare Figure 9: Growth summary for Hengrui (January 2015– July 2017) Drug nameMonthlyJan-16Feb-16Mar-16Apr-16May-16Jun-16Jul-16Aug-16Sep-16Oct-16Nov-16Dec-16 Ai Tan4523%1019%1861%3042%2301%4440%1762%1422%731%495%289%111% Jan-17Feb-17Mar-17Apr-17May-17Jun-17Jul-17 270%140%106%108%161%102%128% 1Q152Q153Q154Q151Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q17 N/AN/AN/AN/A1915%3134%1099%243%164%121% QuarterlyJan-14Feb-14Mar-14Apr-14May-14Jun-14Jul-14Aug-14Sep-14Oct-14Nov-14Dec-14 31%42%21%36%29%35%32%29%34%31%21%27% Ai SuMonthlyJan-15Feb-15Mar-15Apr-15May-15Jun-15Jul-15Aug-15Sep-15Oct-15Nov-15Dec-15 -14%28%2%6%-2%3%-38%2%-1%-6%8%6% Jan-16Feb-16Mar-16Apr-16May-16Jun-16Jul-16Aug-16Sep-16Oct-16Nov-16Dec-16 9%-11%13%-13%13%5%54%8%-2%12%-2%-10% Jan-17Feb-17Mar-17Apr-17May-17Jun-17Jul-17 6%-12%-1%-2%4%6%0% Quarterly1Q152Q153Q154Q151Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q17 2%3%-12%3%4%1%14%-1%-2%3% Kai Te LiMonthlyJan-15Feb-15Mar-15Apr-15May-15Jun-15Jul-15Aug-15Sep-15Oct-15Nov-15Dec-15 15%65%11%17%13%28%16%20%10%7%1%29% Jan-16Feb-16Mar-16Apr-16May-16Jun-16Jul-16Aug-16Sep-16Oct-16Nov-16Dec-16 21%-21%37%2%31%3%37%41%10%48%70%18% Jan-17Feb-17Mar-17Apr-17May-17Jun-17Jul-17 12%62%19%15%12%22%-13% Quarterly1Q152Q153Q154Q151Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q17 24%19%15%13%15%11%29%43%25%16% Atracurium seriesMonthlyJan-15Feb-15Mar-15Apr-15May-15Jun-15Jul-15Aug-15Sep-15Oct-15Nov-15Dec-15 -3%56%-5%12%6%14%14%18%12%-1%22%2% Jan-16Feb-16Mar-16Apr-16May-16Jun-16Jul-16Aug-16Sep-16Oct-16Nov-16Dec-16 20%-15%41%-7%13%-1%0%8%-2%14%6%-6% Jan-17Feb-17Mar-17Apr-17May-17Jun-17Jul-17 6%2%7%7%9%10%8% Quarterly1Q152Q153Q154Q151Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q17 10%11%14%8%16%1%2%3%6%9% IoversolMonthlyJan-15Feb-15Mar-15Apr-15May-15Jun-15Jul-15Aug-15Sep-15Oct-15Nov-15Dec-15 11%62%22%33%15%26%21%18%21%27%18%26% Jan-16Feb-16Mar-16Apr-16May-16Jun-16Jul-16Aug-16Sep-16Oct-16Nov-16Dec-16 22%-6%36%12%24%13%13%27%9%15%35%17% Jan-17Feb-17Mar-17Apr-17May-17Jun-17Jul-17 15%49%14%6%20%23%12% Quarterly1Q152Q153Q154Q151Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q17 26%25%20%24%20%16%16%23%22%16% Le JiaMonthlyJan-15Feb-15Mar-15Apr-15May-15Jun-15Jul-15Aug-15Sep-15Oct-15Nov-15Dec-15 8%53%10%15%8%14%14%15%6%3%15%5% Jan-16Feb-16Mar-16Apr-16May-16Jun-16Jul-16Aug-16Sep-16Oct-16Nov-16Dec-16 15%-6%36%7%20%9%-1%13%4%9%9%-4% Jan-17Feb-17Mar-17Apr-17May-17Jun-17Jul-17 -2%-1%-9%-10%-5%-11%-3% Quarterly1Q152Q153Q154Q151Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q17 19%12%11%7%16%12%5%4%-5%-9% Ai LiMonthlyJan-15Feb-15Mar-15Apr-15May-15Jun-15Jul-15Aug-15Sep-15Oct-15Nov-15Dec-15 -14%42%-1%1%-5%17%-5%18%7%24%21%22% Jan-16Feb-16Mar-16Apr-16May-16Jun-16Jul-16Aug-16Sep-16Oct-16Nov-16Dec-16 18%-2%31%14%32%11%13%21%1%9%19%1% Jan-17Feb-17Mar-17Apr-17May-17Jun-17Jul-17 24%1%10%12%23%10%16% Quarterly1Q152Q153Q154Q151Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q17 3%4%6%22%16%18%11%9%13%15% Ai HengMonthlyJan-15Feb-15Mar-15Apr-15May-15Jun-15Jul-15Aug-15Sep-15Oct-15Nov-15Dec-15 -22%26%-1%-4%-6%3%0%0%-5%0%15%5% Jan-16Feb-16Mar-16Apr-16May-16Jun-16Jul-16Aug-16Sep-16Oct-16Nov-16Dec-16 6%-14%7%-9%5%1%1%14%1%-1%-4%-8% Jan-17Feb-17Mar-17Apr-17May-17Jun-17Jul-17 4%-9%-1%-3%7%-2%-1% Quarterly1Q152Q153Q154Q151Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q17 -4%-2%-2%7%0%-1%5%-5%-1%0% Source: Deutsche Bank, Chinese Pharmaceutical Association Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongPage 5
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