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当前，京津冀协同发展已被确定为国家战略，这将为京津冀地区注入新的发展
动力，同时也对地区电力保障供应、负荷需求分析等方面提出了新的要求。张家口
作为京津冀协同发展中的重要城市，不仅将与北京联合举办第 24 届奥林匹克冬季
运动会，还是国内清洁能源消纳占比最高的城市之一，具有重要的研究意义
本文从京津冀三地经济社会发展和主要电力指标等因素入手，站在区域协同发
展角度，分析京津冀地区经济社会发展对张家口电力负荷的影响，探索两者之间的
内在联系，并给出合理的解释。结合张家口十二五”期间负荷特性、电量构成及
配电网规划建设情况，选择区域负荷预测法、产值单耗法、分产业电耗法、灰色预
测等方法进行组合预测，确定高增长、中增长、低增长三种方案，对张家口市的负
荷变化趋势进行初步预测和分析，并向电网规划运行部门提出建议
研究表明，京津冀三地发展差异较大，北京、天津各项指标位居全国前列。河
北整体发展水平相对落后，以第二产业为主导行业，其工业用电比重与最大负荷利
用小时呈现严格的正相关关系，这一趋势预计在未来一段时期不会发生重大改变
张家口市的用电结构呈现明显的工业化特点，第二产业用电比重高达 68%。未来 5
年内，张家口市的全年用电量和最大负荷将双双增加，年均全社会用电量增长率在
4.7%左右。同时，张家口市的用电结构也将发生较大调整，第一产业和居民用电量
将保持平稳增长，所占比例基本保持稳定，第二产业用电量将持续增加，所占比例
将下降 10%左右，第三产业用电量占比将提高 8%左右，用电量增长速度最快
本文同时建议加强城市群的电网负荷预测和网架规划工作，完善城市电网规划
和数据统计系统，打造涵盖气象、经济、政策等多方面的跨区域负荷预测数据库，
以提高负荷预测的精确性和适应性
关键词：协同发展；负荷预测；张家口；区域经济；华北电力大学硕士学位论文
VI
Abstract
With the booming development of economy and society, electric power industry has
been one of the most essential basic industries in nation, and gradually played a more and
more role in the progress of economic development. Load forecasting is not only a key
guarantee for the stable and accurate operating of the power system, but also the
foundation of the power system planning, operating and overhaul. The accuracy of the
forecasting results will have an key impact on the economic and social development，
network layout and daily life of the residents.
Recently, significant progress has been made in the integrated development of
Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei province,Which calls for more accurate load forecasting
results. As a vital city in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Zhangjiakou, is not only going to
co-host 24th Olympic winter games with Beijing, but also one of the highest
green-energy-proportion cities in China, which make the study much more differences.
By collecting and analying the GDP growth rate, industrial structure and load
characteristics of the Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei province, this paper demonstrates the
correlation between the power load of zhangjiakou and the integrated development of
beijing, tianjin and hebei province. Using load-area forecasting method, key-industry
forecasting method, grey model method and other methods, three load forecasting results
are made to compared ,analyzed and finally carried out. Concerned with load
characteristics and power construction plan of zhangjiakou, some advice are provided for
the government and regional electric power operating department.
The research shows that the GDP growth rate, R&D work and other indexes of
Beijing and Tianjin take the lead in China, while Hebei province is relatively backward.
The secondary industrial of hebei is the largest contributor to the economic growth, and
the economic growth in the primary and tertiary industries are less. It also reveals a strict
positive correlation bewteen the proportion of industrial power and annual maximum
load utilization hours. The electricity consumption structure of Zhangjiakou is
obviously charecterized by secondary industrial, which can be found in the fact that the
proportion of the secondary electricity consumption in total electricity consumption is as
high as 68%. It is predicted that both the total electricity consumption and maximum load
utilization of zhangjiakou will increase steadily within the next five years, respectively
4.5-5% and 3% per year. Meanwhile, it is also likely to see a significant change in the
electricity consumption structure of zhangjiakou. The proportion of primary industry and
residential electricity consumption in total electricity consumption nearly remain
invariable, while the porportion of secondary will decreased by 10% and tertiary industry华北电力大学硕士学位论文
VII
will rise to 8%.
This paper proposes to conduct research on the grid load forecasting and electric
network planning of metropolitan area. In order to promote the prediction accuracy of
regional load forecasting, it is quite essential to build up a trans-regional database
including meteorological conditions, economic developments, policies and so on.
Keywords: integrated development；load forecasting；zhangjiakou；regional economics;华北电力大学硕士学位论文
VIII
目 录
摘要 . V
Abstract...VI
第 1 章 绪论 ...........1
1.1 选题背景与意义 ..1
1.2 国内外研究现状 ..2
1.2.1 传统负荷预测方法.......3
1.2.2 现代负荷预测方法.......3
1.3 论文主要内容和创新点 .......5
1.3.1 论文的主要内容.........5
1.3.2 论文的创新点 ...........6
第 2 章 电力负荷预测基础理论 .......8
2.1 电力负荷预测概述 ...........8
2.1.1 电力负荷预测的概念.....8
2.1.2 电力负荷预测的分类 .....8
2.1.3 电力负荷预测的基本原则 .8
2.1.4 电力负荷预测的步骤.....9
2.2 负荷预测的影响因素 ........10
2.2.1 自然因素..10
2.2.2 人文因素..11
2.2.3 随机因素..11
2.3 负荷预测误差分析 ..........12
2.3.1 产生误差的原因........12
2.3.2 预测误差分析指标......12
2.4 本章小结 ......13
第 3 章 张家口地区电网发展与电力需求现状 ......14
3.1 张家口地区电
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