Outlook
Our six-year investment theme endures.
Investment Management Division
Investment Strategy Group|
January 2015
US Preeminence
This material represents the views of the Investment Strategy Group in
the Investment Management Division of Goldman Sachs. It is not a product
of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. The views and opinions
expressed herein may differ from those expressed by other groups of
Goldman Sachs.
Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani
Chief Investment Offcer
Investment Strategy Group
Goldman Sachs
Brett Nelson
Head of Tactical Asset Allocation
Investment Strategy Group
Goldman Sachs
Additional Contributors
from the Investment
Strategy Group:
Matthew Weir
Managing Director
Maziar Minovi
Managing Director
Benoit Mercereau
Managing Director
Farshid Asl
Managing Director
2015 OUTLOOK
Outlook
Investment Strategy Group1
Overview
the preeminence of the united states has driven our
investment views for the past six years and over this time we have
recommended clients maintain the core of their strategic allocation
in US assets. Since the global fnancial crisis, the United States has
outpaced major developed and emerging market countries and
regions across economic, fnancial and human capital dimensions.
With US equities now some 240% higher than their 2009 trough,
we have to ask: Has the investment theme of US preeminence
already played out
We answer that question in the pages that
follow by examining key measures and showing
that the gap between the United States and other
major countries and regions has widened relative
to pre-crisis levels. The United States continues to
build on its strengths, ranging from immigration to
innovation, while many other key developed and
emerging market countries and regions are held
back by their structural fault lines, ranging from
demographics to governance. Our analysis shows
that the full scale of US preeminence has not yet
been fully factored in or discounted.
We believe that our six-year investment
theme will therefore endure for the foreseeable
future. We continue to recommend maintaining
a strategic overweight to US equities relative to
their share of global market capitalization. While
we advise our clients to stay fully invested in
US equities, we recommend caution, given that
valuations are in the 9th decile of their historical
range in the post-WWII period. It also needs to
be said that US preeminence does not mean that
US assets consistently will outperform or avoid
bouts of volatility. But even after their staggering
outperformance in recent years, we believe that US
assets can continue to do well.
In this report, we include our return
expectations for all major asset classes for the
next one and fve years, along with the key risks
that could alter their trajectory. The balance of the
report is dedicated to an in-depth discussion of
the outlook for the major developed and emerging
economies, global equities, currencies, fxed income
and commodities.
Goldman Sachsjanuary 20152
2015 outlook
Contents
4 US Preeminence
Our Six-Year Investment Theme Endures
8 uS Preeminence: the Gap Widens
We believe that US preeminence is not fully
priced into markets, and that our six-year
investment theme will endure through 2015.
8 Widening Gap across Most Key Economic
Metrics
13 Widening Gap across Financial Markets
17 Widening Gap across Human Capital
Factors
18 Is the Widening Gap Cyclical or Structural
19 Investment Implications of the Widening Gap
19 Strategic Implications
20 Tactical Tilt Implications
25 Prospective Returns
25 the Risks to our Investment Views
26 Federal Reserve Tightening
28 Eurozone Crisis Is Reignited
30 The Unpredictable” President Vladimir
Putin
31 Geopolitical Risks of 2014 Spill Over into
2015
32 Ebola Epidemic
32 key takeaways
We maintain our recommendation that clients
stay fully invested in US equities with some
tactical overweight allocations to high yield
bonds and to the US dollar relative to the euro
and the yen.
SECtIoN I
Outlook
Investment Strategy Group3
342015 Economic
Outlook
36 united States
40 Eurozone
42 united kingdom
43 Japan
44 Emerging Markets
482015 Financial
Markets Outlook
50 uS Equities
54 EAFE Equities
56 Eurozone Equities
57 uk Equities
58 Japanese Equities
60 Emerging Market Equities
61 Global Currencies
65 Global Fixed Income
73 Global Commodities
SECtIoN II: GlobAl DIVERGENCESSECtIoN III: Not YEt out to PAStuRE
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