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文本描述
“ONE BELT, ONE ROAD”:
AN ECONOMIC ROADMAP
Prepare for opportunity.
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister company
to The Economist newspaper. Created in 1946, we have 70 years&39; experience in helping businesses, fnancial frms and
governments to understand how the world is changing and how that creates opportunities to be seized and risks to be
managed.
Given that many of the issues facing the world have an international (if not global) dimension, the EIU is ideally
positioned to be commentator, interpreter and forecaster on the phenomenon of globalisation as it gathers pace and
impact.
EIU Subscription Services
The world’s leading organisations rely on our subscription service for its data, analysis and forecasts to keep them informed
about what is happening around the world. We specialise in:
of the business and regulatory environments in different markets.
the implications for their organisations.
economies. These forecasts are based on the latest data and in-depth analysis industry trends.
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EIU Consulting is a bespoke service designed to provide solutions specifc to our customers’ needs. We specialise in these key
sectors:
consulting frm, EIU Canback, help clients to enter new markets and be successful in current markets.
organisations build and maintain successful and sustainable businesses across the healthcare ecosystem.
based research for policy-makers and stakeholders seeking clear and measurable outcomes.
The Economist Corporate Network
The Economist Corporate Network (ECN) is The Economist Group’s advisory service for organisational leaders seeking to
better understand the economic and business environments of global markets. Delivering independent, thought-provoking
content, ECN provides clients with the knowledge, insight, and interaction that support better-informed strategies and
decisions.
ECN is part of The Economist Intelligence Unit and is led by experts with in-depth understanding of the geographies and
markets they oversee. Its membership-based operations cover Asia-Pacifc, the Middle East, and Africa. Through a distinctive
blend of interactive conferences, specially designed events, C-suite discussions, member briefngs and high-calibre
research, The Economist Corporate Network delivers a range of macro (global, regional, national, and territorial) as well as
industry-focused analysis on prevailing conditions and forecast trends.
The world leader in global business intelligence
“One Belt, One Road”: an economic roadmap
1 The Economist Intelligence Unit 2016
Acknowledgements
One Belt, One Road: an economic roadmap
is a publication of the Economist Corporate
Network (ECN), part of The Economist Intelligence Unit. It guides the reader on a
journey across select economic topography of what is formally known as The Silk
Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. The Belt-Road initiative
represents China’s offcial policy for enhancing global supply chains, primarily through
infrastructure projects throughout the developing and parts of the developed world.
Rob Koepp, director of ECN in Beijing, was the lead author and managing editor of
this report. The supervising editor was Robert Ward, global editorial director of The
Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU). Further editorial assistance was provided by
Alex White, director of Country Analysis, and Pat Thaker, editorial director for the
Middle East and Africa, at The EIU.
Rob Koepp wrote the regional analysis sections of the roadmap. Most of the country
profles were individually contributed by The EIU analysts who regularly monitor and
report on those economies. ECN appreciates their collaboration and the added insights
that these analysts provided. In alphabetical listing, the country profle authors
were Mohamed Abdelmeguid (Egypt, Qatar), Anwita Basu (Indonesia, Philippines),
Pepijn Bergsen (Armenia, Georgia), Miguel Chanco (Cambodia, Myanmar, Vietnam),
Aengus Collins (Turkey), David Dalton (Moldova, Poland, Ukraine), Nicholas Fitzroy
(Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman), Joan Hoey (Romania), Duncan Innes-Ker (Mongolia), Rob
Koepp (Kenya, Tanzania, Zimbabwe), Max Lambertson (Kyrgyz Republic, Macedonia,
Tajikistan), Emily Mansfeld (Czech Republic), John Marrett (Bangladesh, Thailand),
Alex Nice (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia), Gabriel Partos (Albania, Hungary), Rob
Powell (Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia), Peter Power (Laos), Fung Siu (Malaysia, Singapore),
Firat Unlu (India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka) and Keren Uzyiel (Israel, Jordan, UAE).
This report also greatly benefted from the graphics and layout design work of Wai
Lam, Asia-Pacifc art director at The Economist Group.
March 2016
the publisher’s ability. However, the Economist Corporate Network does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance
on it. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by
any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the Economist Corporate
Network.
“One Belt, One Road”: an economic roadmap
2 The Economist Intelligence Unit 2016
Contents
3Introduction
6 Africa
OBOR in Africa
12 Kenya
13 Tanzania
14 Zimbabwe
15 Central Asia
New tracks over ancient roads Opportunities
and divergences
22 Turkey
23 Kazakhstan
24 Azerbaijan
25 Georgia
26 Mongolia
27 Armenia
28 Tajikistan
29 Kyrgyz Republic
30 Eastern Europe
OBOR goes West
35 Poland
36 Czech Republic
37 Romania
38 Hungary
39 Ukraine
40 Albania
41 Macedonia
42 Moldova
43 Middle East
A closer roadKicking off ambitious projects
Solar&39;s bright opportunities
49 Saudi Arabia
50 Iran
51 Egypt
52 United Arab Emirates
53 Israel
54 Iraq
55 Qatar
56 Kuwait
57 Oman
58 Jordan
59 Bahrain
60 RUSSIA
One Belt, two pipelines OBOR onward
65 Russia
66 South Asia
India’s elephantine needs Deal notes
71 India
72 Pakistan
73 Bangladesh
74 Sri Lanka
75 South-east Asia
Moving towards fast tracks
80Indonesia
81 Thailand
82 Philippines
83 Malaysia
84 Singapore
85 Vietnam
86 Myanmar
87 Cambodia
88 Laos
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