摘要
2014年第四季开始，作为国民经济“晴雨表”的证券市场从长年的熊市中
走向了新阶段，进入股票市场的投资者数量越来越多，但因缺乏良好的投资氛围
和一般投资者缺乏对会计信息的辨别能力，在大部分优秀公司的价格得到价值回
归的情况下，多数投资者因为盲目进行投机创业板从而在2015年中演变成大范
围的亏损。中小投资者在本应获得稳定收益的股票市场上沦为了待宰的羔羊

本文在基于对中小投资者的保护的角度下，统计分析了创业板的上市公司
季度报表数据，制作并对比了不同季度的 ROE 分布图，根据图形分析发现了创
业板公司普遍存在洗大澡、扭亏、虚增利润的现象，继而在对琼斯模型修改上，
加入了自己对创业板公司的理解，分离了收入变化，并继而使用季度数据和年度
数据同时进行了回归分析，发现在季度报告的解读上，收入与上年收入不是拥有
同一个系数，但年报里这种情况为真。对于季度数据的研究发现，第一季度的报
告倾向于根据上年收入数据制作，证据为当年收入系数有可能显著出现符号为
负，上年收入为正的状态，并且不少见，容易在第一季度发生，并随时间变化和
上年收入的影响形成交叉变化，最后变回今年收入符号为正，上年收入符号为负
的状态。随后根据季度内市场波动的情况对牛熊猴预期的定义区分了不同的区
间，并根据对比这些不同区间的残差数据的偏离程度，得出了牛市盈余管理程度
显著增加的结论。然后通过对折旧数据的对比发现，上年固定资产原值并不只是
反映了折旧的情况，在极端情况下能够解析利润的增长，并对2015年出现的奇
异的系数变化做出了真实盈余管理在这期间可能很严重的解释。结合实证研究，
得出了在缺乏动因的情况下，季度报表更可信，但如果存在动因就会变成季度不
可信的结论。最后，结合投资者保护的理论给出应该建立季度报表信任体系的建
议、披露财务人员的违规记录、制定衡量报表历史可信度的指标供参考、季度报
表随机抽审、违规惩罚与匿名举报奖励、泼冷水制度、支持建立中小股东信息交
流系统、股东责任明确、证券公司服务型改革、创业板退出审理制的建议

关键词：中小投资者保护；盈余管理；季度报告II
Abstract
The 4
th
quarter of 2014, as the national barometer of economy ,stock market of
china went to a new stage from the long bear market. The number of investors vastly
increase, but still the lack of the environment and ability to discern accounting
information have drove the majority of investors to blindly speculating in the best
companies&39; prices,resulting to a wide range of losses by the middle of 2015. In order
to help small and medium investors to invest and strengthen the protection of small
and medium investors, this paper,based on statistical analysis of quarterly ROE
distribution which is complied by characteristics of the statements of listed companies
of the GEM, found that there are phenomenon like‘bathing’,’ loss into profit’,
“inflated profit “. And then,with my own understanding on the GEM company, I
manged to further improve the Jones model,and then conducted a regression analysis
to test the GEM company&39;s abnormal earnings management behavior and finally gave
an interpretation that revenue does not have the same coefficient as last year&39;s income,
but this is true in the annual report. The quarterly data study found that 1th quarterly
report tends to be based on revenue data for the previous year, and the evidence for
this is that quarter’s earnings coefficient is possible to show a negative sign whereas
last year&39;s revenue was positive, and it was easy to occur in the first quarter. And with
the change of time, the impact of income and income of last year form a cross-change,
and this year&39;s income symbol finally return to positive, the previous year&39;s income
symbol negative.To further research，we defined the definition of the anticipation of
the cow,bear and monkey，and the conclusion that the degree of deviation of the bull
market surplus is significantly increased is based on the degree of deviation from the
residual data of these different intervals. And then through the depreciation data we
found that the original value of fixed assets last year did not just reflect the
depreciation of the situation, in extreme cases can represent the growth of profits, and
the strange changes of 2015 in the coefficient may come from a real earning
management.Next,combined with the empirical study above, it is concluded thatIII
quarterly statements are more credible in the absence of motivations, but if there are
motivations, they will become quarterly untrustworthy conclusions. Finally, in
combination with the theory of investor protection, it is necessary to establish the
quarterly report trust system, disclose the illegal records of financial personnel,
formulate the indicators to measure the historical credibility of the report for
reference,exert quarterly random audition, punishment and reward for anonymous
report of crime, Pouring cold water system, supporting the establishment of small and
medium shareholders information exchange system, shareholder
responsibility,securities company service reform,Trial system of getting out the GEM.
Key words：Earning Management; Investors Protection; Seasonal Report广东工业大学硕士学位论文
IV
目录
第一章绪论......1
1.1研究背景与意义.........1
1.1.1研究背景..........1
1.1.2研究意义..........2
1.1.3研究目的..........3
1.2文献综述.........3
1.2.1国外相关文献综述......3
1.2.2国内相关文献综述......5
1.2.3文献评述........10
1.3主要内容与研究框架...........10
1.3.1论文内容........10
1.3.2研究框架........11
1.4研究方法.......12
1.5研究的创新与主要问题.......12
第二章盈余管理和财务报告基本理论........14
2.1投资者保护理论.......14
2.1.1委托代理理论14
2.1.2不完全契约理论........15
2.2盈余管理理论...........15
2.2.1盈余管理定义15
2.2.2适度和过度盈余管理行为的界定....16
2.2.3盈余管理度量方法....17
2.3相关理论.......20
2.3.1信息不对称....20
2.3.2法律论20
2.3.3其他相关理论21
2.4本文倡导的投资者保护理念...........21目录
V
第三章创业板盈余管理季度分布现状分析24
3.1分析方法选择...........24
3.2指标选取.......24
3.3数据描述性统计.......25
3.4创业板季报盈余分布现状........
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