摘要
I
摘要
我国经济的持续发展，使房地产业成为经济发展支柱型产业。而随着国家逐渐重
视对住宅地产业的调控，越来越多的开发商转而投资商业地产。城市综合体逐渐成为
地产开发商青睐的开发模式。不仅是一线城市，许多二三线城市也开始将开发城市综
合体项目作为城市发展目标之一。由于开发商缺乏风险管理的经验，且财务活动极不
稳定，具有一定不确定性，导致许多项目的开发和运营面临较大的财务风险，因此研
究城市综合体项目的财务风险就显得尤为重要

首先，本文采用文献综述法，评述现有研究成果，并梳理国内外城市综合体项目
风险管理相关研究。其次，对 MLC 项目的基本情况进行介绍，分析其周边供需关系、
竞争环境及地产价格，并以此为依据，对该项目 5 年计算期财务基础数据进行了估算；
再次，在对基础数据估算的基础上，对项目盈利能力和偿债能力的相关指标进行计算
评价；然后，采用不确定性分析的方法，判定 MLC 项目的风险承受能力，确定了项
目的安全度、敏感因素及其发生的概率；最后，针对 MLC 项目面临的财务风险从政
府和开发商方面提出相应的对策建议

本文认为，MLC 项目的财务风险承受能力较强，其盈利能力评价指标和偿债能
力评价指标与同类房地产开发项目相当，如果能实现预期的投入和产出，MLC 项目
财务风险较小。该项目的主要敏感因素为建设投资与营业收入，在开发过程中主要从
投资、运营两方面着手调整，要严格控制建设投资，增加营业收入

本文的研究意义在于：在微观上，通过对 MLC 项目的财务风险分析，帮助投资
者进一步了解城市综合体项目存在的财务风险，并提出防范措施，对 MLC 项目的投
资决策以及建设运营具有现实意义；宏观上，完善城市综合体项目开发风险管理研究
体系，对我国城市综合体项目的开发决策研究也具有一定的借鉴意义

关键词：城市综合体，财务风险，不确定性分析ABSTRACT
III
ABSTRACT
With the sustained development of economic in our country, the real estate industry
has become a pillar industry of economic development. With the gradual emphasis on the
regulation of the real estate industry, more and more developers to invest in commercial
real estate. Urban complex has become a favored developer of real estate development
model. Not only is the first tier cities, many two or three tier cities have begun to develop
urban complex project as one of the objectives of urban development. Because developers
lack of risk management experience, and financial activities is very unstable, with some
uncertainty, leading to the development and operation of many projects are facing greater
financial risk, so the study of city complex project financial risk is particularly important.
First, this paper reviews the existing research results and reviews the domestic and
foreign urban complex project risk management related research. Secondly, it introduces
the basic situation of MLC project, analyzes its surrounding supply and demand relation,
competition environment and property price, and on this basis calculates the financial basic
data of the 5-year calculation period of the project. Thirdly, based on the estimation of
the basic data, the relevant indexes of the project profitability and solvency are calculated
and evaluated. Fourth, the uncertainty analysis method is adopted to determine the risk
tolerance of MLC project, and the safety degree, sensitive factors and the probability of
occurrence of the project are determined. Finally, according to the financial risks faced by
the MLC project, the author puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions from the
government and the developers.
This paper argues that the MLC project financial risk bearing ability, profitability and
solvency evaluation index and evaluation index of similar real estate development projects,
if can achieve the desired input and output, the financial risk of small MLC project. The
main sensitive factors of the project for the construction investment and operating income,
in the development process, mainly from the financing, operation two aspects of
adjustment, to strictly control the construction investment, increase operating income.
The significance of this research is: at the micro level, through to the MLC project
financial risk analysis, help investors to further understand the city complex project
financial risk, and puts forward the prevention measures, has practical significance to MLC
project investment and construction and operation. Macroscopically, improving the risk
management system of urban complex project development has certain reference西安电子科技大学硕士学位论文
IV
significance for the development decision research of urban complex project in our
country.
Keywords: Urban complex, financial risk, uncertainty analysis插图索引
V
插图索引
图 1.1 论文框架结构图.........8
图 3.1 2013 年—2014 年苏州各区非住宅成交情况.........21
图 3.2 2013 年苏州市商业地产供求走势图..........21
图 3.3 2014 年苏州市商业项目各分类销售情况（套）..23
图 3.4 永旺梦乐城辐射范围...........23
图 4.1 各因素变动对净现值的影响...........36
图 4.2 各因素变动对内部收益率的影响...36
图 4.3 净现值累计概率图...39表格索引
VII
表格索引
表 2.1 城市综合体的主要类型.......10
表 3.1 MLC 项目综合体功能分区面积 .....19
表 3.2 2012-2014 年苏州市房地产开发情况表.....22
表 3.3 2014 年吴中区商铺市场情况表......24
表 3.4 2014 年苏州市商圈商铺出租市场情况表..25
表 3.5 2014 年吴中区商铺出租价格分析..25
表 4.1 建设投资构成表.......30
表 4.2 净现值敏感性分析表...........35
表 4.3 财务内部收益率敏感性分析表.......35
表 4.4 不确定因素参数值及其概率...........37
表 4.5 组合状态净现值计算表.......37
表 4.6 各种组合状态的方案净现值及其累计概率...........38IX
目 录
摘要....I
ABSTRACT.......... III
插图索引 .....V
表格索引 ..VII
目 录 .........IX
第一章 绪 论.........1
1.1 研究的背景及意义 ..... 1
1.1.1 选题背景 .........