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银行行业_资产质量预期企稳将降低拨备计提压力_维持_跑赢大市_评级2017年国泰君安国际41页

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See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 41
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Sector Report: Banking Sector Richard Cao曹柱
行业报告:银行行业 +86 755 2397 6870
caozhu013592@gtjas
10 July 2017
Expected Stabilization of Asset Quality will Decrease Pressure
on Setting Aside Provisions, Maintain “Outperform”
资产质量预期企稳将降低拨备计提压力,维持“跑赢大市”评级
We expect YoY growth of the banking sector's balance of total loans and total
assets to be 12.0% and 10.5% in 2017, respectively. In 2H17, we expect the
banking sector's NIM to recover by a small margin compared with 1Q17, and
NIM of the Chinese banking sector for 2017 is expected to be around 2.11%,
down nearly 11 bps YoY. In 2H17, non-interest businesses are expected to
record moderate growth, and cost-to-income ratio is projected to remain
relatively low. In 2H17, along with the stabilization of asset quality, the
pressure on Chinese mainland banks to set aside provisions will weaken
gradually, and the erosion of impairment losses to net profit is expected to be
correspondingly mitigated. All things considered, we expect YoY growth of
the Chinese banking sector's net profit in 2017/2018/2019 to be
4.9%/5.9%/6.5%, respectively.
As at 7 July 2017, the 2017 weighted average PER and PBR of mainland
listed banks under our coverage stood at 5.5x and 0.7x, respectively. The
current valuations are still low in our view. In 2H17, we expect the following
factors to support bank valuations: 1) we expect the Chinese economy to
stabilize and the structure of the economy to be optimized further; 2) we think
that economic risks to the Chinese economy will decrease further given the
government's orientation on deleveraging policy; 3) we project the Chinese
banking sector's net profit growth to recover to a certain extent from the
current trough; 3) we expect asset quality to continue to stabilize. Therefore,
we maintain “Outperform” rating for the Chinese banking sector in
2H17.
我们预计2017年银行业的总贷款和总资产余额的同比增速分别为12.0%和10.5%。2017
年下半年,我们预计银行业净息差较2017年一季度将小幅回升,预计2017年中国银行业
的净息差约为2.11%,同比下降近11个基点。2017年下半年,预计非利息收入录得稳健
增速,预计成本收入比将保持相对较低水平。2017年下半年,随着资产质量的企稳,中国
内地银行拨备计提的压力将逐渐缓和,资产减值损失对净利润的侵蚀预计将相应得到缓解

考虑到以上所有因素,我们预计中国银行业2017、2018和2019年净利润同比增速分别
为4.9%、5.9%和6.5%

截至2017年7月7日,我们覆盖的中资银行2017年的加权平均市盈率与市净率分别为
5.5倍与0.7倍。我们认为当前估值仍然偏低。2017年下半年,我们预计以下因素将为银
行估值提供支撑:1)我们预计中国经济企稳,经济结构进一步优化;2)在政府降杠杆的
政策背景下,我们认为中国经济风险进一步下降;3)我们预计中国银行业净利润增速将从
当前的低谷有所恢复;4)我们预计资产质量将企稳。因此,我们仍维持中国银行业2017
年下半年“跑赢大市”投资评级

Rating: Outperform
Maintained
评级: 跑赢大市(维持)
Sector Performance
行业表现
Source: Bloomberg.
Banking Sector Net Profit and YoY
Growth
银行业净利润及其同比增速
Source: China Banking Regulatory Commission, Guotai Junan International.
Company Name
公司名称
Code
编号
Price
股价
(HK$)
Rating
投资评级
FY17 PER
市盈率
(x)
FY18PER
市盈率
(x)
FY19 PER
市盈率
(x)
FY17 ROE
净资产收益率
(%)
FY17 P/B
市净率
(x)
FY17 Yield
股息率
(%)
ICBC 01398 4.880 Accumulate 5.4 5.2 4.9 14.2 0.7 5.7
CCB 00939 5.930 Accumulate 5.4 5.1 4.9 14.6 0.7 5.6
ABC 01288 3.460 Accumulate 5.2 5.0 4.7 13.8 0.7 5.8
BOC 03988 3.610 Accumulate 5.4 5.2 4.9 12.1 0.7 5.5
BANKCOMM 03328 5.500 Accumulate 5.2 5.0 4.8 11.4 0.6 5.8
CMB 03968 23.050 Buy 7.4 6.7 6.0 15.9 1.1 4.1
MSB 01988 7.630 Accumulate 4.9 4.7 4.4 13.9 0.6 2.6
CITIC 00998 4.790 Accumulate 4.9 4.7 4.4 11.7 0.5 6.3
Huishang 03698 3.850 Accumulate 4.8 4.2 3.7 15.6 0.7 3.2
Weighted Average
市值加权平均 Outperform 5.5 5.2 4.9 13.8 0.7 5.4
Source: the Companies, Guotai Junan International.
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Jan-17Feb-17Mar-17Apr-17May-17Jun-17Jul-17
HIS indexIndex of mainland Chinese banks in Hong Kong
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
Dec-Mar
-12Jun-12Sep-12Dec-12
Mar
-13Jun-13Sep-13Dec-13
Mar
-14Jun-14Sep-14Dec-14
Mar
-15Jun-15Sep-15Dec-15
Mar
-16Jun-16Sep-16Dec-16
Mar
-17
RMB10bn
Net profit YoY growth
10
Ju
ly 2
01Ba
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Se
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银行
行业
Se
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ep
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Banking Sector
See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 41
The mainland Chinese banks listed in Hong Kong basically kept pace with the Hong Kong Hang Seng index in the
past months of 2017. As at 7 July 2017, the YTD weighted return of mainland Chinese banks listed in Hong Kong matched
the Hang Seng index average. In terms of the trend of YTD weighted return of mainland Chinese banks listed in Hong Kong,
the highest YTD weighted return through the year was 19.2% on 29 June 2017. As at 7 July 2017, the YTD weighted return of
mainland Chinese banks listed in Hong Kong was 14.4%.
Exhibit 1: The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and A-Share Index trend of the mainland Chinese banks
Source: Guotai Junan International.
Note: index of mainland Chinese banks listed in Hong Kong are composited by the weighted average market capitalization of the mainland Chinese banks listed in
Hong Kong, as at 7 July 2017.
In 1H17, the Chinese economy performed well and showed obvious signs of stabilization. In 1Q17, Chinese GDP
recorded YoY growth of 6.9%, the highest point over the past five quarters. Domestic demand was a main driver for economic
growth; the growth structure of the economy continued to improve and industrial production, consumption and investment all
grew at a stable pace. In 1-5M17, industrial production rose 6.7% YoY, up 0.8 pts YoY. Fixed asset investment grew 8.6% YoY
in 1-15M17, down 1.0 pts YoY. Nominal YoY growth of retail sales of consumer goods in May was 10.7%, up 0.7 pts YoY and
flat MoM. In 1H17, primarily influenced by the recovery of the main economies in the world and stabilization of the Chinese
economy, foreign trade performed outstandingly. In 1-5M17, imports and exports both grew quickly. Of which, exports and
imports increased 14.8% YoY and 26.5% YoY, respectively.
Exhibit 2: YoY growth of Chinese industrial production
Exhibit 3: YoY growth of Chinese fixed asset investment
(Accumulated)
Source: the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
Source: the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Jan-17Feb-17Mar-17Apr-17May-17Jun-17Jul-17
HIS indexIndex of mainland Chinese banks in Hong Kong
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Feb
-14
Ma
y-1Au
g-1No
v-1Feb
-15
Ma
y-1Au
g-1No
v-1Feb
-16
Ma
y-1Au
g-1No
v-1Feb
-17
Ma
y-1%
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Sep
-14
No
v-1Jan
-15
Ma
r-1Ma
y-1Jul-Sep
-15
No
v-1Jan
-16
Ma
r-1Ma
y-1Jul-Sep
-16
No
v-1Jan
-17
Ma
r-1Ma
y-1%