摘要
随着互联网、云计算、大数据、物联网等现代信息技术在传统产业经济领域
的深入应用和发展，以产业融合化、技术革新化、商业社交化为特征的“互联网
+”思维为我国各领域全面深化改革、加快推进新兴产业与传统产业深度融合发
展，提供了重要的的增长路径与发展机遇。产业融合通过将不同产业或同一产业
不同细分领域相互渗透、相互交叉，形成了推动传统产业转型升级与新兴产业实
现创新发展的增长合力。在产品市场，产业融合主要以融合型产品为主要形式和
内容，在动态市场条件下不断更新、迭代和演进，并最终形成具有较强排他性的
新产业。从某种程度上说，基于融合型产品视角推进融合产业的持续和健康发展，
已成为当前全球经济实现产业创新和经济发展不可忽视的发展趋势。以产业融合
为驱动，具有“投使”功能的融合型产品，会带动整个社会经济系统内的资本、
技术、产品、市场、制度等多种要素向融合产业方向发展，促使传统产业领域内
的产品和服务逐渐从市场退出，并进而形成以融合产品占据市场主导地位的新兴
产业。融合产品在市场中的更新迭代将不断地推动着产业创新进入更高的发展状
态。

本文建立了基于非对称高斯分布模拟融合型产品的生命周期模型。在产业融
合实现之后，企业会向市场推出具有多重复合价值属性的融合产品。实际经验表
明，大多数融合型产品在市场中的传播与扩散过程都是非对称的，对称形态的产
品生命周期只是非对称分布的一个特例。因此，基于产业融合推动产业创新的视
角出发，建立融合型产品非对称高斯分布的生命周期模型，分析和判断融合型产
品在市场中的扩散规律并合理估计其市场容量与规模，对相关企业在产业竞争与
博弈环境中保持持续的竞争优势将具有重要的指导意义。

此外，本文以融合产品市场中内各企业主体在长期合作与竞争过程中的动态
行为为出发点，构建了由融合产品及两类基础产品的典型代表企业组成的多阶段
竞合博弈模型。通过对系统内各企业主体特征和演化方式的准确把握，深入探讨
了融合产品市场系统的结构特征和运行机制，给出了企业组织在稳定竞合博弈和
非稳定竞合博弈条件下的最优策略选择。有助于指导企业准确把握市场机会和迎
接挑战，避免使融合产品市场系统陷入无序的同质化竞争而进入混沌运行状态。

关键词：非对称高斯分布，融合型产品，生命周期，竞合博弈，混沌控制II
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ABSTRACT
With the wide application of information technologies like Internet, cloud
computing, big data and IoT, the “Internet Plus” thinking provides an important path
to comprehensively deepen reforms in various fields and to promote the convergence
of emerging industry and traditional industry. By mutual overlap and interwoven for
different industries or different segments in the same industry, industrial convergence
accelerates the pace of transformation and upgrading for traditional industry and the
innovation process for emerging industry. Convergence product is the main form and
content of industrial convergence in the product market, by continuous iteration and
evolution in dynamical market and eventually forming and exclusive new industry. To
some extent, it has become non-negligible trend to realize the global innovation and
economic development for an angle of convergence product to promote rapid and
sustainable development of convergent industries. Convergence product guides the
capital and other production factors to gather in the convergent industries, and prompt
the traditional industries to secede the market. Eventually, the convergence products
can acquire a dominant position in this emerging market and further iterations
promote the industrial innovation to a higher state.
The research studies the life cycle model of convergence products based on the
asymmetric Gaussian distribution. In the background of industry convergence,
enterprises continuously provide multiple attribute products to the market.
Practical experience tells us that most of the convergence products’ spread and
diffusion process in the market is asymmetric, symmetrical life cycle is an exception
case of asymmetric distribution. Therefore, from an angle of industrial convergence to
promote the industrial innovation, it has great significance for enterprises to keep a
sustainable competitive advantage in competitive industrial environment to build up
the life cycle model of convergence products and analyze the diffusion characteristics
and to evaluate the market capacity .
In addition, based on the cooperative and competitive dynamical behaviors of
enterprises in the long run, this paper constructs a multi-stage competition game
model which is composed of the representative products of the convergence productsIII
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and the two basic products. System structure and evolution mechanism， the structure
characteristics and operating mechanism of the fusion industry system are deeply
discussed. The optimal strategy choice is given under the conditions of stable
competition and non-stable competition. It helps to guide the relevant enterprises to
accurately grasp the market opportunities and meet the challenges to avoid the
convergence product market systems running into the homogenization of competition
and chaos state. .
KEY WORDS: Asymmetric Gaussian Distribution, Convergence Product, Life
Cycle, Cooperation-competition Game, Chaos Control
IV
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目录
摘要........I
ABSTRACT .... II
第 1 章 绪论......1
1.1 研究背景..........1
1.2 研究意义..........3
1.3 国内外研究现状..........4
1.4 研究内容及框架..........6
第 2 章 相关概念与理论基础..9
2.1 产业融合理论..9
2.1.1 产业融合的概念与内涵9
2.1.2 产业融合的条件与方式..........10
2.1.3 产业融合的影响效应..12
2.2 产业创新与创新扩散理论....12
2.2.1 产业创新的动力来源..12
2.2.2 产业创新的阶段划分..14
2.2.3 创新产品的生命周期..15
2.3 混沌运动与竞合博弈理论....17
2.3.1 非线性动力学基础......17
2.3.2 混沌系统控制理论......18
2.3.3 企业竞合博弈理论......19
2.4 本章小结........20
第 3 章 融合型产品随市场扩散的生命周期研究 ...21
3.1 融合型产品的市场扩散机制21
3.1.1 融合产品扩散的市场要素......21
3.1.2 融合产品的市场扩散特点......22
3.1.3 融合产品的市场扩散模式......23
3.2 融合型产品的生命周期模型24
3.2.1 非对称高斯分布模型..24
3.2.2 模型的参数估计