2010年全国住宅土地供应公布。上海土地交易市场热度转淡

上海办公楼投资市场依然保持活跃，数宗交易近期达成

住宅市场住宅市场
Following a brief revival in transactions in late March, the
residential market turned cautious again in mid-April
consequential to a new round of tightening measures
targeting at investment and speculative demand.
Significant increase in 2010 residential land supply was
unveiled in the latest land supply plan. Exuberance in the
Shanghai land sales market cooled down.
Shanghai’s office investment sales market stayed active with
several deals closed.
RESIDENTIAL MARKETRESIDENTIAL MARKET
Notwithstanding the tightening policies issued in early 2010,
apparently，correction in the residential market was not
evident. Transaction volume picked up again towards end-
March, after a temporary relapse in January and February.
Meanwhile, home prices continued to firm up. The price
index of 70 middle-sized to large cities surged by 11.7% YoY
in March, the fastest growth since 2005.
In Shanghai, the residential market gathered momentum
towards late March, with transaction volume in March soaring
by 128% MoM. Average transacted price stayed at a high
level of RMB 19,767 per sqm, up 55% YoY. The market
stayed active in early April with price edging up further,
before transactions reverting to decline after the
promulgation of new tightening measures in mid-April.
In April, the continuous rise in home prices spurred a new
round of tightening policies by the central government. The
State Council meeting held on April 14 announced to raise
down payment for second home buyers to 50% and
mortgage rate to 1.1x of PBOC benchmark rate. On the heels
of that, on April 17, the State Council promulgated further
measures to ban mortgage on purchase of a third property,
as well as impose residency requirements on non-local
buyers. Subsequent clarification by the central government
also tightened definition of second property, which basically
includes all properties held on a family basis other than the
one for own dwelling, disregarding on whether the first
property is mortgaged. As these measures are highly
targeted at investment demand and speculative demand,
which constitute a significant portion of buyers of luxurious
properties, we believe that such measures will have more
profound impact on the high-end residential market. As such,
the high-end sector would face larger correction than the
mass market, given that the latter is still well supported by
end-user demand.
自年初政府出台调控政策后，市场未见显著调整。继1、2月
销售回落后，3月住宅市场成交量先抑后扬、逐步上升。与
此同时，价格依然坚挺，70大中城市房屋价格指数同比升幅
进一步扩大至11.7%，升幅为2005年以来最快

3月上海住宅市场成交量在月末出现明显上升，全月销量环
比增长128%，同时全月成交均价依然维持在高位，达
19,767元/平米，比去年同期上涨55%。4月初以来销量保持
活跃，价格仍继续上行。而在4月中新的调控措施出台后，
销量出现了明显的下滑

市场价格持续上扬触动中央在4月密集出台新的调控措施

继4月14日国务院会议中提出大幅提高第二套住房贷款首付
至50%及贷款利率升至基准利率1.1倍后，17日发出通知，
进一步提出措施限制购买第三套房以及无居住证明异地者购
房的贷款。而政府其后对于二套房相关定义作出从紧解释，
规定无论贷款与否，以家庭为单位持有一套以上住宅均被视
作第二套房。因相关政策着力针对于投资及投机需求，而其
是高端住宅市场中主要需求所在，我们相信这一轮针对性措
施将对高端住宅市场有更大的影响，因此未来高端市场价格
会面临较大幅度的调整。而一般住宅市场因仍受刚性需求支
撑，调整幅度相对较小

Market Update
市场观察
Apr 2010
2010年4 月
LAND SALES MARKETLAND SALES MARKET土地市场土地市场
4月中，各地政府陆续推出2010年用地计划。全国来看，除
土地供应较09年有大幅上升外（增长135%），更明确了其
中77%面积将被用于经济适用房、动迁用房及中小套型用房

而上海今年推出住宅土地中70%为以上三类房屋，供应面积
较则去年微增3%，相比于其他主要城市，上海供地增幅处于
后位，长期来说对房价有一定支持作用

近期上海土地市场显得较为淡静。4月初莘庄所推出的地铁上
盖物业确定完全以招标形式出让，价格因素下降至仅占30%
左右。相比于价高者的竞标模式，政府在整个招标出让环节
中也将有更大的主导性，而这种模式也可能使土地市场的热
度有所冷却

INVESTMENT SALES MARKETINVESTMENT SALES MARKET投资市场投资市场
因目前市场中办公楼及住宅物业价格显著倒挂，而未来办公
租赁市场亦有望走出谷底，使得近期办公楼投资市场日益升
温，数宗大宗交易达成。位于卢湾区的甲级写字楼新茂大厦
以18.5亿人民币售出。同时期位于中山西路及凤阳路的两栋
写字楼也整栋售出。同期散售市场也十分活跃，浦东的浦江
双辉大厦与静安的万泰大厦分别售出数个楼面

In mid-April, the Chinese government released its 2010
residential land supply plan. On the national level, land
supply increased significantly by 135% over 2009, of which
77% is designated for economic housing, housing for
resettlement, and building of small-medium sized flats. For
Shanghai, new land supply increases only slightly by 3%
over last year, and that 70% of its residential land supply will
be allocated to the above three categories. Given that the
increase in land supply in Shanghai is much less than that in
other major cities, it would render relatively firmer support to
Shanghai’s property prices over the longer term.
The Shanghai land sales market remained quiet recently. A
site above Xinzhuangmetro station was launched in early
April through tender sale with a variety of bidding criteria,
among which the price criteria is lowered to 30% of overall
weighting. In contrast to tender based on the highest bidding
price, it enables the municipal government to have more
discretion in allotting the tender. This would help cool down
the exuberance in the land sales market.
Given the substantial price gap between office properties and
residential properties, and expectation of bottoming out of the
office leasing market, investors’interest in office properties
has gathered steam. Several major transactions, especially
of office buildings, were completed. Platinum, a Grade A
office in Luwan, was sold at RMB 1.85 billion whilst another
two office properties at Zhongshan Rd. West in Changning
and FengyangRd. in Jing’an were sold en-bloc. In parallel,
strata-title sales were also active, with several floors at
PujiangTwin Towers in Pudong and WantaiTower in Jing’an
sold during March.
It is also reported that a “real estate”tax on holding of
luxurious residential properties will be levied both in
Shanghai and Chongqing. Although the tax rate and tax base
are not confirmed, should it be implemented, it will elevate
the cost of holding property, and thus dampen investment
and speculative demand further.
在4月中有消息传闻上海及重庆将对于豪宅试点开征房地产
税。虽然目前课税及界定标准并未出台，但持有环节税种一
旦被引入，将明显增加物业持有成本，从而对未来住宅投资
及投机需求产生相当大的影响。50
100
150
200
250
300
200
7.1
200
7.3
200
7.5
200
7.7
200
7.9
200
7.1200
8.1
200
8.3
200
8.5
200
8.7
200
8.9
200
8.1200
9.1
200
9.3
200
9.5
200
9.7
200
9.9
200
9.1201
0.1
201
0.3
10,000 sq m5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
RMB/sq m
New Supply 新供应Take-up 需求
Average Price 成交均价3-Month Moving Average of Price 均价三个月移动平均值
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Jul
/08
Se
p/0No
v/0Jan
/09
Ma
r/0Ma
y/0Jul
/09
Se
p/0No
v/0Jan
/10
Ma
r/1Average YoY Growth Rate of Sold Area 销售面积同比增长
Average YoY Growth Rate of Sales Value 销售金额同比增长
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
2,500
2,700
Ja
n/0Ma
r/0Ma
y/0Ju
l/0Se
p/0No
v/0Ja
n/0Ma
r/0Ma
y/0Ju
l/0Se
p/0No
v/0Ja
n/0Ma
r/0Ma
y/0Ju
l/0Se
p/0No
v/0Ja
n/1Ma
r/1-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Ja
n-0Ma
r-0Ma
y-0Ju
l-0Se
p-0No
v-0Ja
n-0Ma
r-0Ma
y-0Ju
l-0Se
p-0No
v-0Ja
n-1Ma
r-170 Cities 70城市
Shanghai 上海
Source: Shanghai Secondary Housing Index Office
资料来源：上海二手房指数办公室
The Overall Market
整体市场
Apr 2010
2010年4月
Source: China Statistics Bureau, Shanghai Statistics Bureau
资料来源：中国统计局、上海统计局
Source: Shanghai Real Estate Transaction Center
资料来源：上海房地产交易中心
Shanghai & 70 Cities' Property Price Trend
上海与70 城市房价变化
Shanghai Second-hand Housing Price Index
上海二手住宅价格指数
Shanghai Residential Market
上海住宅市场
Sales Performance of Top 4 Developers
四大开发商销售情况
Source: Company announcements
资料来源：公司公告
Note: The samples in the basket includeVanke, COLI, Poly and
Gemdale(Dec 09 or before) and Greentown (Jan 10 and after)
注：开发商样本包括万科、中海、保利及金地（2010年1月后替换为
绿城）
Supply, Take-up and Average Price of
Shanghai Residential Market
上海住宅销售市场供应、需求及均价
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