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MBA论文_H公司对Z市中心城区燃气市场项目投资分析及对策研究DOC

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摘要
III
论文题目:H公司对Z市中心城区燃气市场项目投资分析及对策研究
专 业:工商管理
学员姓名:李 磊 学员签名:
导师姓名:杨 屹 教授 导师签名:
摘要
Z市位于陕西省南部,天然气等资源储量丰富,但目前开发力度不足,相关配套基础
建设处于初期发展阶段。而H公司自2009年取得Z市除中心城区以外各县城市燃气特许
经营权以来,在Z市各县域燃气投资项目上已经取得了长足的发展,用户数量和用气量
的年平均增长率均达到50%以上,但由于投资区域城镇化率较低,城市规模小、人口总
量少,工商业基础薄弱,居民消费水平较低等因素导致市场潜力有限,难以实现规模效益,
导致企业营利能力较弱。而Z市中心城区城市规模、人口基数和密度均较大,工商业发
达,居民消费水平较高,其市场潜力较周边县区具有显著优势,对中心城区市场的投资成
为了H公司现阶段解决发展瓶颈问题的最有效途径,因此,有必要对Z市中心城区天然
气投资项目进行研究并提出可行的对策和建议

论文分别从H公司的背景分析、Z市中心城区燃气市场投资项目的市场分析、估算
分析、财务分析、风险分析等方面进行总体评估。研究结果表明:第一,从H公司的发
展背景、组织结构、资产状况、市场状况等方面总结得出H公司作为主要投资者具有实
力强、市场广、潜力大的优势;第二,市场分析发现目前Z市中心城区燃气市场具有较
大的市场空白,项目建设能够完善Z市燃气市场,为Z市中心城区人民提供具有较高品
质和水准的生活体验,带动Z市经济以及当地产业链的发展;第三,整体估算结果得出
该项目每年均能实现本利一次还清,较好地契合了投资资金的风险估算;第四,财务分析
显示,总投资收益率为39.43%,资本金利润率为68.17%,财务净现值大于0,财务内部
收益率是19.60%,动态投资回收期为9.27年,该项目具有较大的财务盈利优势,获利能
力较强。各贷款期内利息备付率、偿债备付率、资产负债率均满足财务要求,项目的清偿
能力较强,同时敏感性分析结果显示销售单价为综合敏感性因素,H公司应该将天然气价
格的可能变动控制在预测范围内;第五,项目投资过程中可能会产生市场风险、财务风险、
生产风险、宏观经济政策风险等,因此项目建设过程中应该积极管理风险,有效地控制风
险,以满足项目安全性、收益性等要求

【关 键 字】投资分析 对策研究 天然气市场 H公司
【研究类型】应用研究
AbstractTitle: The Investment Analysis and Countermeasure Research of H
Energy Investment Company to the Gas Market Project of
Z Downtown
Major: Business Administration
Author: Li Lei Signature:
Supervisor: Professor Yang Yi Signature:
Abstract
Z city is located in the south of Shaanxi Province, natural gas and other resources are
abundant, but the current development is insufficient, and the related supporting infrastructure
is in the initial stage of development. Since the Z outside the city center in the city gas franchise,
H company has made great progress in Z, each county gas investment projects, the number of
users and the amount in the average annual growth rate reached more than 50%, but due to
investment in the region urbanization rate is low, the scale of City small, less of the total
population, commercial and industrial foundation is weak, low level of consumer factors
leading to the market potential is limited and difficult to achieve economies of scale, profit
ability is weak, need to consider the core area of the city size, population density, and the
developed industry and commerce investment to improve the quality of development company.
In order to solve the bottleneck of the development of the present stage, the gas market in Z city
center is the key to the next step of investment, so this paper puts forward the research and
countermeasures for the development of the natural gas investment project in the downtown
area of Z.
This research is from the background analysis of H company, the market analysis, the
analysis of Z, the financial analysis, the risk analysis and so on. The results show that: first,
from the aspect of H's development background, organizational structure, asset status, market
condition and conclude that H company as the main investor has strong strength, wide market
and great potential advantage; second, market analysis found that the current Z city gas market
currently has a large gap in the market, to improve the construction project Z city gas market,
provide high quality and standard of living experience for Z city people, driven by Z economic
as well as the local industry chain development; third, the overall evaluation results indicated
that the project every year in accordance with the amount a pay off, to estimate the risk of
investment funds to complete the better; fourth, financial analysis after that, the total investment
return rate of 39.43%, capital profit rate is 68.17%, the financial net present value of 19.6 is
greater than 0, the financial internal rate of return 0%, the dynamic investment recovery period
is 9.27 years, the project has a lot of financial profit advantage, strong profitability. The period
西安理工大学工商管理硕士学位论文
西安理工大学工商管理硕士学位论文of the loan interest rate, excess debt repayment reserve rate, the rate of assets and liabilities are
to meet the financial requirements, the project repayment ability, at the same time, the
sensitivity analysis showed that the sales price for the comprehensive sensitivity factors, H
company should be natural gas prices may change control in the pre measuring range; fifth, the
project investment process may cause the market risk, financial risk, production risk,
macroeconomic policy risk, so the risk management should be actively in the process of project
construction, control risk effectively, to meet the project safety and profitability requirements.
【Key words】Investment Analysis; Countermeasure Research; Urban Natural Gas;
H Energy Investment Company;
【Type of paper】Applied Research
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