colliers/china Beijing Retail Property Market 北京商铺物业市场 Market Overview市场概览 While the total stock of Beijing’s mid- to high- end retail property market continued to expand in 3Q10, some retailers showed signs of slowing their pace and observing business performance in existing stores in conventional catchments, reviewing store allocation strategies citywide. On the whole, the leasing market remained active, though the injection of new supply into the market lifted the overall vacancy rate and weighed down on average rents. The catchments seeing the greatest change in tenancy during the quarter were Lufthansa and Zhongguancun. 北京中高端物业市场总存量在第三季度继 续扩大。然而一些零售商已有放慢发展速度的迹 象，并开始重新审视其位于传统商圈的现有门店 之经营状况，以及品牌于全市范围内的布局策 略。总体而言，尽管新增供应推升了整体空置 率，并拉低了平均租金水平，但租赁市场仍然保 持活跃。就商圈而言，燕莎商圈和中关村商圈在 租赁方面变化最为明显 Supply供应 Three shopping centres – BHG Wanliu Mall and ECMall in Zhongguancun catchment and CARE City Shopping Centre in the Other area – were completed during the quarter. The new completion injected a total GFA of 262,471 sqm into the market, pushing the total stock of the overall mid- to high-end shopping centre market to expand by 6.85% q-o-q, to 4,096,083 sqm as of end-3Q10. Given the new supply, at the same time the overall vacancy of the Beijing mid- to high-end shopping centres rose by 0.99 percentage points q-o-q, to 15.25%. Of all the catchments, Zhongguancun and Lufthansa registered the largest increase in vacancy rates, up 5.35 and 2.1 percentage points q-o-q, respectively. On the other hand, Wangfujing, Dongzhimen and Financial Street maintained satisfactory or improved performances, with vacancy rates falling by 0.44, 0.57 and 2.0 percentage points q-o-q, respectively. 三个购物中心项目在季内正式开业，分别为中关 村商圈的华联万柳购物中心和欧美汇购物中心， 以及其他区域的首地大峡谷购物中心，总计为市 场带来262,471平方米新增供应量。截至 第三季度末，北京中高端购物中心总存量达 4,096,083平方米，环比增长6.85%。受新增供应 影响，北京中高端购物中心整体空置率环比上升 0.99个百分点至15.25%。各子商圈中，中关村和 燕莎商圈录得空置率最大涨幅，分别按季上涨 5.35和2.1个百分点。另一方面，王府井、东直门 和金融街商圈市场表现保持良好或得以改善，空 置率分别按季下降0.44、0.57和2.0个百分点 EcOnOMic indicatOrS 经济指标 MarkEt PErfOrMancE 市场表现 Q3| retail china GdP* Beijing GdP* Beijing cPi** Bank rate* retail Sales** disposable income* consumption Expenditure** Supply Vacancy rents capital Values Overall cBd chaoyangmen Jianguomen Xidan Wangfujing dongzhimen Lufthansa Zhongguancun financial Street Others 11.1% 12% 1.7% 5.4%*** 16.2% 8.6% 11% GrowthTrends RentsVacancy * Data as of end-2Q10** Data as of end-Aug 10 *** Actual rateSource: Beijing Statistics Bureau, PBOC The catchments that saw the greatest change in tenancy during the quarter were Lufthansa and Zhongguancun. The Knowledge Report Beijing OutLOOk 展望 ★ Although some overseas retailers slowed their leasing activities, Beijing’s overall retail leasing market remained active in 3Q10, with demand primarily sourcing from the FMCG, jewellery, accessories, electronics, F&B and education sectors. During the quarter, fashion brands i.t and JOOP! committed to approximately 200 and 100 sqm, respectively, at Chaoyang Joy City; ZARA took up 600 sqm at U-Town; H&M and Asobio committed to over 400 and 200 sqm at CARE City Shopping Centre, respectively; C&A occupied nearly 1,000 sqm at BHG Wanliu Mall. Suning Elite signed LOIs with both the Season Place and CARE City Shopping Centre, with leasing areas of approximately 900 and 800 sqm, respectively. In addition, Burger King, Subway and Yeng Kee Bakery leased space at U-Town, the Mall at Oriental Plaza and Rafes City, respectively. Demand from the education sector was on the rise in this quarter, too, as evidenced by New Oriental Kinder Place’s, Disney English’s and Gymboree’s commitments in the Place, SOLANA and the Fulllink Plaza, respectively. 尽管一些海外零售商在租赁活动方面放缓了步伐，北京商铺租赁市场在 第三季度仍然表现活跃，需求主要来自于快速消费品、珠宝及配 饰、电子产品、餐饮及教育等业态。季内，时尚品牌i.t 和JOOP!分别在朝 阳大悦城租赁200平方米和100平方米面积；ZARA在悠唐生活广场租赁600 平方米面积；H&M 和 Asobio分别在首地大峡谷购物中心签约超过400平方 米和200平方米面积；C&A在华联万柳购物中心租赁近1,000平方米面积 苏宁精品店分别与金融街购物中心和首地大峡谷购物中心签下约900平方米 和800平方米面积。另，汉堡王、赛百味和澳门英记饼家分别与悠唐生活广 场、东方新天地和来福士签约新店。来自教育业态的需求在本季内亦有上 升，新东方儿童之家、迪士尼英语和金宝贝分别与世贸天街、SOLANA蓝色 港湾和银座商城签订租约即是其中几例 rents租金 The average ground foor fxed rent in Beijing’s mid- to high-end shopping centres fell to RMB 685.38 psm per month in 3Q10, down 3.42% q-o-q. The decrease resulted from lower rents amidst new entries in emerging retail nodes. In addition, the 6.08% q-o-q decrease in rent of the CBD catchment was also another main reason for the overall rental decline. Similarly, the Zhongguancun catchment followed suit in the CBD in this quarter, with average rent declining by 3.98% q-o-q. Nevertheless, landlords of certain shopping centres continued to show strong confdence, raising rentals on the back of sustained leasing demand and successful completion of the nurturing periods. Contrary to the two aforementioned areas, rents in the Xidan, Wangfujing, Dongzhimen and Financial Street catchments marked up, in a range from 0.46% to 8% q-o-q, respectively. Meanwhile, rents for other catchments, such as Chaoyangmen and Jianguomen, remained largely stable in this quarter. 北京中高端购物中心首层平均固定租金下降至人民币685.38元每月每平方 米，环比降低3.42%。租金下降主要为位于新兴零售节点的新增供应租金水 平相对较低所致。同时，CBD商圈租金下降6.08%亦是导致整体租金降低 的主要原因之一。中关村商圈平均租金同样有所下滑，环比降低3.98% 另一方面，一些购物中心业主表现了坚定的市场信心，持续增长的租赁需 求和成功度过养商期促使其上调租金。与前述两个商圈相反，西单、王府 井、东直门和金融街商圈租金均录得环比上升，增涨0.46%至8%不等。朝 阳门和建国门商圈等的其他商圈在季内保持租金稳定 Chart 2: Beijing Mid- to High-End Shopping Centre Ground Floor Rents by Catchment 图2： 北京中高端购物中心首层租金 Chart 1: Beijing Mid- to High-End Shopping Centre New Supply, Net Absorption and Vacancy Rates 图1： 北京中高端购物中心新增供应量、净吸纳量和空置率 Source: Research, Colliers International Beijing数据来源：北京高力国际调研部Source: Research, Colliers International Beijing数据来源：北京高力国际调研部 sqm | 平方米 New Supply | 新增供应量Net Absorption | 净吸纳量 Vacancy Rates | 空置率 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000-50,000 -100,000 1Q072Q073Q074Q071Q082Q083Q084Q081Q092Q093Q094Q091Q102Q103Q10 RMB psm per month | 人民币每月每平米 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200Ground Floor Rents | 首层租金Overall Average Rent | 整体平均租金 Wangfujing王府井Xidan西单 CBD中央商务区Jianguomen建国门Dongzhimen东直门Zhongguancun中关村 demand需求 colliers/china the Knowledge report | Q3| retail | Beijing colliers/china Accelerating success. Outlook展望 In essence, the economic outlook in the locality should remain positive, with an optimistic China’s GDP growth projection of 10.5% in (International Monetary Fund, 3Q10), thereby underpinning consum