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Urban_World_Global_Consumers_Full_Report(April2016年)_PDF

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Per capita spending increasingly important Nine groups of consumers to watch Urban demographics shifting 833321 HIGHLIGHTS APRIL 2016 URBAN WORLD: THE GLOBAL CONSUMERS TO WATCH Copyright McKinsey&Company 2016 In the 25 years since its founding, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) has sought to develop a deeper understanding of the evolving global economy. As the business and economics research arm of McKinsey&Company, MGI aims to provide leaders in the commercial, public, and social sectors with the facts and insights on which to base management and policy decisions. The Lauder Institute at the University of Pennsylvania ranked MGI the world’s number-one private-sector think tank in its 2015 Global Think Tank Index. MGI research combines the disciplines of economics and management, employing the analytical tools of economics with the insights of business leaders. Our “micro-to-macro” methodology examines microeconomic industry trends to better understand the broad macroeconomic forces affecting business strategy and public policy. MGI’s in-depth reports have covered more than 20 countries and 30 industries. Current research focuses on six themes: productivity and growth, natural resources, labor markets, the evolution of global fnancial markets, the economic impact of technology and innovation, and urbanization. Recent reports have assessed the economic benefts of tackling gender inequality, a new era of global competition, Chinese innovation, and digital globalization. MGI is led by three McKinsey&Company directors: Jacques Bughin, JamesManyika, and JonathanWoetzel. MichaelChui, SusanLund, AnuMadgavkar, and JaanaRemes serve as MGI partners. Project teams are led by the MGI partners and a group of senior fellows, and include consultants from McKinsey&Company’s offces around the world. These teams draw on McKinsey&Company’s global network of partners and industry and management experts. In addition, leading economists, including Nobel laureates, act as research advisers. The partners of McKinsey&Company fund MGI’s research; it is not commissioned by any business, government, or other institution. For further information about MGI and to download reports, please visit mckinsey/mgi. Richard Dobbs | London Jaana Remes | San Francisco James Manyika | San Francisco Jonathan Woetzel | Shanghai Jesko Perrey | Düsseldorf Greg Kelly | Atlanta Kanaka Pattabiraman | Silicon Valley Hemant Sharma | San Francisco APRIL 2016 URBAN WORLD: THE GLOBAL CONSUMERS TO WATCH PREFACE Sweeping demographic change is transforming the world economy. In 2015, MGI explored the impact of an aging world on global GDP growth, and the imperative to boost productivity to make up for slowing growth in the labor pool. Now we turn more specifcally to how slowing population growth is likely to shape global consumption over the next 15years, with a focus on large cities whose inhabitants will generate over 90percent of consumption growth between 2015 and 2030. This report is the fourth in our Urban World series. It draws on a global consumer model included in MGI’s Cityscope database, which maps the evolution of global urban consumption from 2015 to 2030 using projections for population growth among different age segments and age-specifc consumption patterns at a country level. This model allows us to compare large consumer groups across the world, and to understand patterns of global consumption across age groups, countries, and cities. MGI’s new research is the second in the Urban World series that has a consumer focus, and adds to the growing body of research by McKinsey&Company in this area. The MGI report is published alongside, and is informed by, two new pieces of research from the McKinsey Consumer Practice focusing on consumers. One is McKinsey 2016 China Consumer Report based on 10,000 in-person interviews with people aged 18 to 65 in 44 cities, representing China’s major regions and tiers. The other is McKinsey’s 2016 Global Sentiment Survey of more than 22,000 consumers in 26 countries. These two reports provide companies in the consumer markets with the broadest and most recent set of insights on consumer trends across regions. Both are available at mckinsey. MGI’s latest research was led by Jaana Remes, a MGI partner based in San Francisco, with guidance from three McKinsey and MGI directors: RichardDobbs, based in London, JamesManyika in San Francisco, and JonathanWoetzel in Shanghai. We are particularly grateful for the contributions of GordonOrr, director emeritus and senior external adviser to McKinsey, and SvenSmit, a McKinsey director in Amsterdam. Kanaka Pattabiraman and Hemant Sharma, both consultants based in San Francisco, led the project team, which comprised TarunAgarwal, KevinColes, EduardoDoryan, ClemensFahrbach, VivianLu, GaneshRaj, MelissaRenteria, RamanSharma, and SophieTurnbull. We are also grateful for the helpful advice of MGI senior fellows JanMischke and SreeRamaswamy, knowledge experts JonathanAblett, EzraGreenberg, XiujunLillianLi, and AnneMartinez, and TimothyBeacom, MGI knowledge operations specialist. Thanks also go to HongChen, LuciaFiorito, AmyJin, TeeraPrice, and TejaswiTharakabhushanam. We would like in particular to thank McKinsey’s geospatial analytics team, which works on geographic or locational aspects of doing business, including, for instance, location strategies, infrastructure diagnostics, and urban growth modeling; and McKinsey’s health-care analytics team, which combines health-care expertise with big data analyses to improve the global health-care community. Numerous McKinsey colleagues gave us of their expertise including VivekAgrawal, YuvalAtsmon, AlecBokman, AndresCadena, KaraCarter, VladimirCernavskis, JoyChen, YougangChen, PeterChild, ClaraChung, SusanColby, JennyCordina, DavidCourt, ElizabethDay, CarolynDewar, EwanDuncan, AlanFitzgerald, LauraFurstenthal, ChenglinGan, JonathanGordon, BryanHancock, AlexandraHicks-Hardiman, 。。。。。。以上简介无排版格式,详细内容请下载查看