本文在研究过程中运用结构方程模型和系统动力学模型等研究方法对对外股权合
作对航空战略联盟稳定性的影响进行评价和研究。文章首先对股权合作和联盟稳定性的
研究现状和相关理论进行梳理;其次通过对入盟航空公司对外股权合作对航空战略联盟
稳定性影响因素以及因素间作用关系的梳理,构建对外股权合作对航空战略联盟稳定性
影响机理并提出相关研究假设;然后运用结构方程模型对提出的研究假设进行检验和修
正,通过构建航空战略联盟稳定性影响的系统动力学模型并对模型进行仿真,以实现对
外股权合作对航空战略联盟稳定性影响程度的测评;最后根据研究结论提出改善航空战
略联盟稳定性的相关建议
关键词:航空战略联盟;联盟稳定性;股权合作;结构方程模型;系统动力学模型II
Abstract
Nowadays, competition is increasingly fierce in global civil aviation market, the airline
strategic alliance has been the effective method in providing complete air transport products
to meet the demand for passengers, expanding the networks to the global scale and dealing
with bilateral control of international air transport. However, with the continuous
development of equity investment, the common way of seeking strategic partners through
equity cooperation in civil aviation industry. In , Etihad Airways established new alliance
“Etihad Airways Partners” as a link to equity relationship is the most worthy of attention,
which incorporated with Air Berlin affiliating with Oneworld Alliance and Alitalia affiliating
with SkyTeam Alliance. The members of airline strategic alliance joined external alliance as
the link of equity cooperation, the airline strategic alliance faced more instability in the course
of development and operation. Therefore, to study the stability of airline strategic alliance has
important theory value and practical significance.
This paper used structural equation model and system dynamics model to research and
evaluate the stability of airline strategic alliance influenced by external equity cooperation.
First, the article organized and analyzed the research status and the related theories of equity
cooperation and alliance stability. Second, through sorted out the factors and its relationship
about the stability of airline strategic alliance influenced by external equity cooperation,
established the influenced mechanism and constructed hypothesis model. Third, used
structural equation model to test and amend research hypothesis were proposed, after that
established and simulated the system dynamics model to evaluate the degree of the stability of
airline strategic alliance. Finally based on findings in this study, several reasonable
suggestions were proposed to improve the stability of airline strategic alliance.
Keywords: Airline strategic alliance; Alliance stability; Equity cooperation; Structural
equation model; System dynamics modelIII
目 录
摘 要.. I
Abstract.II
第一章 绪论.... 1
1.1 选题背景及意义....... 1
1.1.1 选题背景.......... 1
1.1.2 选题意义.......... 2
1.2 研究内容及目的....... 2
1.2.1 研究内容.......... 2
1.2.2 研究目的.......... 3
1.3 研究方法及思路....... 4
1.3.1 研究方法.......... 4
1.3.2 研究思路.......... 4
1.4 研究创新点... 5
第二章 国内外研究现状........ 7
2.1 股权合作研究现状... 7
2.1.1 国外研究现状.. 7
2.1.2 国内研究现状.. 8
2.1.3 国内外研究现状评述.. 9
2.2 战略联盟稳定性研究现状... 9
2.2.1 国外研究现状.. 9
2.2.2 国内研究现状.. 11
2.2.3 国内外研究现状评述.. 13
2.3 与战略联盟稳定性相关的基础理论........... 13
2.3.1 资源理论.......... 13
2.3.2 交易成本理论.. 14
2.3.3 社会资本理论.. 15
第三章 航空战略联盟和航空公司股权合作发展现状........ 17
3.1 航空战略联盟发展现状....... 17IV
3.1.1 现状分析.......... 17
3.1.2 面临新型合作模式的挑战...... 18
3.2 航空公司股权合作发展现状........... 19
3.2.1 现状分析.......... 19
3.2.2 对航空战略联盟的影响.......... 20
第四章 对外股权合作对航空战略联盟稳定性影响机理.... 23
4.1 联盟稳定性概念界定........... 23
4.2 对外股权合作对航空战略联盟稳定性影响因素分析....... 24
4.2.1 资源维度.......... 24
4.2.2 风险维度.......... 26
4.2.3 社会资本维度.. 28
4.3 对外股权合作对航空战略联盟稳定性影响机理模型与研究假设........... 30
4.3.1 机理模型.......... 30
4.3.2 研究假设.......... 31
4.4 对外股权合作对航空战略联盟稳定性影响机理验证....... 32
4.4.1 研究方法.......... 32
4.4.2 调研数据采集.. 33
4.4.3 数据检验.......... 34
4.4.4 验证性因子分析.......... 35
4.4.5 航空战略联盟稳定性影响机理验证.. 37
第五章 对外股权合作对航空战略联盟稳定性影响程度测评........ 39
5.1 研究方法....... 39
5.1.1 系统动力学方法概述.. 39
5.1.2 运用系统动力学方法的可行性.......... 39
5.2 对外股权合作对航空战略联盟稳定性影响的系统动力学模型构建....... 40
5.2.1 系统动力学流图构建.. 40
5.2.2 系统动力学流图的方程式模型.......... 42
5.3 对外股权合作对航空战略联盟稳定性影响的系统动力学模型仿真....... 44
5.3.1 有效性检验...... 44
5.3.2 敏感性分析...... 46V
第六章 结论与展望.... 50
6.1 研究结论与建议....... 50
6.1.1 结论...... 50
6.1.2 建议...... 51
6.2 研究不足与展望....... 52
参考文献.......... 54
附录 1 调查问卷......... 59
附录 2 系统动力学模型中变量函数以及初始值的设定..... 61
致 谢.. 63
作者简介.......... 64中国民航大学硕士学位论文
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