摘 要
“新财富最佳分析师”评选是《新财富》杂志的核心排名之一，自 2003 年首届新财富最佳分
析师评选成功举办以来，这个代表着中国卖方分析师最佳荣誉的评选大会至今已经成功举办了
十届。“新财富最佳分析师”目前已经获得了绝大多数基金、保险等广大机构投资者的认可，成
为业内公认的最具权威性的卖方分析师评选活动，对于各大券商研究所来说意义重大。该排名
对提升证券分析师影响力，倡导“研究创造价值”的理性投资观念，推动资本市场健康发展起到
了积极作用。

本文选取了 2007、2008、2009年度各行业前三名的新财富分析师为研究对象，研究其获奖
后次年，即对应在牛市(2009 年)，熊市(2008年)，震荡市（2010 年）所出具的个股研究报告作
为样本数据，根据新财富评选的行业分类方法，将行业分为“周期类”、“成长类”、“公用事业
类”三大类，从研究报告的评级准确性、目标价达成度、超额收益率三个方面进行深入研究和分
析； 分类别讨论“周期类”、“成长类”和“公用事业类”三类不同分析师群体的差异以及造成这些
差异的原因，并给出以下几点实际应用中的参考方法：
1、对于新财富分析师给予“买入”以上评级的股票，在 6 个月之内约有一半的机会出现 5%
以上的涨幅，可以作为建仓的一个参考指标。同时，由于一些以股票为标的证券的理财产品分
红条款中多数有设置一个固定涨幅，也可以作为投资理财产品的一个参考指标。

2、单纯看研究报告的目标价没有意义，盲目依据目标价进行买入卖出操作更是危险中的危
险。搞清楚研究报告的核心逻辑和关键假设，把握好股价上涨的催化剂，比单纯看一个价格更
加重要。

3、牛市中新财富分析师推荐的个股普遍都能跑赢市场，周期类分析师荐股波动性大，适合
激进类型投资者；成长类分析师荐股波动性较小，适合稳健型投资者，其投资组合在震荡市中
表现比其他两类分析师更好。

4、熊市中新财富分析师的投资组合普遍跑输市场，不适合作为建仓的依据。

5、对于新财富分析师给出“卖出”评级的证券要格外注意，特别是从“持有”下调至“卖出”评
价的证券，其评级准确度接近 90%，拥有相当高的现实指导意义。

关键词：新财富分析师、研究报告、股票评级、目标价、超额收益率THE EMPIRICAL RESEARCH ON THE NEW
FORTUNE ANALYST RESEARCH REPORT’S
INVESTMENT VALUE
ABSTRACT
The new wealth of the best analyst selection is one of the core new fortune magazine
rankings, since 2003, the new wealth of international conventions for reference first launched by
the institutional investors to vote the China mainland capital market the best analyst has been
successfully held ten sessions. The new wealth of the best analyst by security more and more
research institutes and large institutional investors approved, has become the industry recognized as the
most authoritative securities analyst rankings, the growing influence of. The ranking to improve
security analysts influence, advocate research to create value the rational
investment idea, promote the healthy development of the capital market has played a positive role.
New wealth analyst selection based on fairness, and open principles, the agencies
recommended (such as institution does not participate in, accept personal name) mode, determining a
candidate list; then, fill in the questionnaire was used in the evaluation subjects election vote, according
to a certain weight to vote out parties.
This selection of 2007, 2008, 2009 of the top three industries of new wealth analysts as the research
object, study its award the following year, that is in the bull market (2009), bear market
(2008), concussion city (2010) issued by the stock research report as sample data, according to the new
wealth of industry selection classification method, the industry is divided into cycle”,
“development, public utilities three categories from a research report rating accuracy, goal reaching
degree, the excess rate of return of three aspects of the in-depth study and analysis of the
classification discussion: cycle, growth and public utilities three different analysts groups and the
reasons that cause these differences, and gives practical application of the following references :
1, for the new wealth analyst to buy rating than stocks , about half within six months of the
opportunity to appear more than 5 % of the increase can be used as a reference .