摘要
健康是一切发展的根本，是家庭生活、经济生活以及社会生活和谐稳定的基础。近
年来，健康服务业需求增长迅速，其在吸收就业、稳定社会方面发挥了巨大作用，已经
成为 21 世纪推动全球经济快速发展的重要产业。健康服务业发展，不仅能够提高国民
的健康水平，还有助于转变经济发展方式、优化产业结构，促进地区和谐可持续发展。

但是，我国健康服务业还处于初级阶段，还存在产业链短、产业规模小等问题。因此，
研究山西省健康服务业发展，明确产业内各影响要素之间的关系，对于推动山西省产业
结构的优化升级，区域经济又好又快的发展，具有重要的理论价值和实践价值。

本文首先对山西省健康服务业发展现状进行分析，发现无论是产业整体还是产业内
部各个行业，山西省健康服务业发展都处于较低水平，各种产业资源要素投入严重不足，
缺乏完善的产业配套设施。其次，运用系统动力学方法构建山西省健康服务业发展的系
统动力学模型。在确定建模思路的基础上，构建健康服务业发展的系统框架图，然后根
据山西省健康服务业的实际情况，构建产业发展的系统流图，依据流图，对模型中的主
要变量和方程进行详细解释，并对模型进行有效性检验，进而通过控制模型中相关变量
来进行政策模拟。根据模拟结果，我们可以得出，健康服务业是全省经济发展的强劲动
力，能够有效拉动第三产业和地区GDP的增长，而健康服务业发展又受到政策、人才、
技术、资金、信息化水平等的影响。通过改善产业发展环境，增加产业投入，建立符合
产业发展的政策体系、人才体系，以及完善的健康保险和信息化建设，能有效的推动健
康服务业的发展。最后，通过对政策模拟结果的分析，提出促进山西省健康服务业发展
的相关政策建议。

关键词：山西省健康服务业，系统动力学，仿真模拟

ABSTRACT
Health is the root of all development, and is the foundation of the harmony and stability
of the family life, economic life and social life. The development of health service industry,
not only can improve the health of the population, also contribute to the transformation of
economic development mode, optimize the industrial structure, promote regional sustainable
development in harmony. However, our country's health service industry is still at the primary
stage, there are still some problems in short industrial chain, small scale industries etc.
Therefore, research the development of health service industry in Shanxi Province and make
clear the relationship between each influence factor within the industry has important theory
significance and the practical significance to promote the optimization, the upgrading of the
industrial structure and the economic development of Shanxi Province.
Firstly, this paper has analyzed the health services development present situation of
Shanxi province, and found that the development of whole industry is at a low level, and is
lack of perfect industrial facilities and industry resources are invested seriously insufficiently.
Then the article has built a system dynamics model of health service development by using
the method of system dynamics. On the basis of the modeling idea, the paper constructed the
system frame of the development of health service industry, then made the system flow chart
with the actual situation of Shanxi provincial health services. According to the flow chart, the
main variables and equations in the model wore explained in detail, then made a validation
and simulation of the model. We can find that health services is the strong driving force of
economic development, and it can pull the growth of the tertiary industry and region's GDP
effectively, and health services development will be influenced by the policy, personnel,
technology, capital, information and information level. Improve industrial development
environment, increase industry investment, establish industrial development policy systems
and personnel systems, as well as formulate comprehensive health insurance and information