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摘要
自2003 年美国普洛斯公司进驻中国市场，物流地产在我国受到广大关注，引发了物
流地产投资热潮。近年来，物流行业以及跨国公司在我国的快速发展，刺激了物流地产
的发展。但同时，物流地产在我国的发展过程中也出现了不少问题，如投资前未对风险
进行识别及评价，导致对风险认识不足，盲目开发，造成空置率高，投资风险大。

本文以物流地产投资风险为研究对象，首先对物流地产、投资风险及相关理论进行
了阐述。简要介绍了物流地产的概念及运营模式、投资风险的概念及特征、风险管理理
论和投资环境理论；其次，针对物流地产投资风险因素进行风险识别，详细阐述了物流
地产投资的六大风险：自然风险、国家政策风险、市场经济风险、技术风险、社会风险、
决策及管理风险。然后，在识别物流地产投资峰风险的基础上，运用层次分析法确定各
风险指标的权重，再结合模糊综合评价法构建了物流地产投资风险评价模型；最后，以
沈阳市A 物流园区进行实证分析，得出其投资风险总值为4 左右，属于较低风险，验证
了基于层次分析法和模糊综合评价法构建的物流地产投资风险评价模型的可行性及合理
性。

关键词：物流地产，投资风险，层次分析法，模糊综合评价法Research on the Investment Risk of Logistics Real Estate
Abstract
Since 2003, Prologis companies in American came into the Chinese market, real estate in
our country get the general attention, triggered a logistics real estate investment boom. In recent
years, the rapid development of the logistics industry and multinational companies in our
country, stimulate the development of logistics property. But at the same time, it appeared many
problems in the process of the development of logistics real estate in our country, such as not to
identificate and evaluate investment risk before investment, that lead to inadequate
understanding of risk and blind development, caused the high vacancy rate and high investment
risk.
This paper based on the real estate investment risk as the research object. First of all, real
estate, investment risk and related theories are expounded. The concept and operation mode of
logistics property, the concept and characteristics of investment risk, the risk management
theory and the theory of the investment environment are briefly introduced; Secondly,
identificate the real estate investment risk, included six investment risk: natural risk, policy risk,
market economy countries risk, technology risk, social risk, decision-making and management
risk.
Then, on the basis of the peak real estate investment risk identification of logistics, using
the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to determine the weight of each risk index, combining
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method to build the logistics real estate investment risk
evaluation model; Finally, take as an example, it is concluded that the total cost of the
investment risk is , belongs to risk, it verified the feasibility and rationality of logistics real
estate investment risk evaluation model which constructed by the Analytic Hierarchy Process
and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method.
Key Words：Logistics Real Estate，the Investment Risk，Analytic Hierarchy Process，
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method