基于上述背景，本文研究从我国第二代支付系统即将上线运行这一事件出
发，围绕商业银行流动性风险管理影响因素展开分析，综合近年来我国商业银
行流动性波动情况，总结出我国商业银行流动性变化的特点及影响因素。针对
我国第二代支付系统即将上线运行，着重研究了支付系统对商业银行流动性风
险管理的影响和作用机制，希望得出支付系统与商业流动性风险管理之间的关
系。
研究发现：我国商业银行流动性风险管理主要受内部因素和外部因素两个
方面的影响，而外部因素主要有货币政策、金融发育程度、国际资本流动和金
融基础设施，我国支付系统作为最重要的金融基础设施，从宏观层面和微观层
面对商业银行流动性风险管理产生了影响。通过利用 VAR 模型与 Granger 因果
检验进行了实证分析，得出我国支付系统对商业银行流动性风险管理的影响最
为显著这一结论。由此也引出了我国支付系统一旦出现不可抗拒的自然灾害或
故障，我国商业银行流动性将面临巨大的风险损失。因此我国应尽快完善支付
系统灾难备份和应急管理，商业银行也应高度重视自身行内系统的建设，并完
善流动性风险管理的相关制度。
关键词：商业银行；流动性风险管理；支付系统；影响；评估Abstract
Since the global economic crisis in 2008, the liquidity risk management of
commercial bank has arose much attention among the supervision organizations and
research institutions all over the world. Many supervision methods and research
results are not applicable in current economic situation, and it is more and more
essential to enhance the liquidity risk management of commercial banks. The study
on liquidity risk management has a later beginning in China, with main focus on the
internal factors affecting the liquidity risk management, and there is still less
attention to the external factors.
Based on the mentioned background, with the situation that the second
generation payment system is going to be put into operation in China, the thesis
analyzes the factors affecting the liquidity risk management of commercial banks in
China, and summarizes the characters and factors of commercial bank liquidity
changes, based on the thorough research of the liquidity fluctuations of commercial
banks. The thesis emphasizes on the influence and affecting mechanism of payment
system to the liquidity risk management of commercial bank, in hope to figure out
the interaction between payment system and commercial liquidity risk management.
The thesis finds out that the liquidity risk management of commercial banks in
China is affected by both internal and external factors, and the latter consists of
currency policy, finance development extent, international capital flow and financial
infrastructure. Functioning as fundamental financial infrastructure, payment system
in China has influence on the liquidity risk management of commercial bank on both
macroscopic and microscopic views. With the facilitation of empirical analysis based
on VAR Model and Granger Causality Tests, it is concluded that payment system in
China has the greatest influence on the liquidity risk management of commercial
bank, from which we can also reach that once the payment system is confronted with
irresistible disaster or fault, the liquidity risk management will face huge risk.
Therefore, it is crucial to improve payment system disaster copy and emergency
management, and commercial banks should also attach high attention to its internal
system construction and accelerate the perfection of its regulations on liquidity risk
management.
Key Words: Commercial Bank, Liquidity Risk Management, Payment System,
Influence, Evaluation
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