中新置地非住宅房地产项目风险管理研究 中文摘要
I
中新置地非住宅房地产项目风险管理研究
中文摘要
2003年我国明确房地产作为国家的支柱产业，房地产业成为国家的经济支柱，近
10年房地产业取得发展快速，为国家经济做出较大贡献。在飞速的发展同时，管理者
的风险管理意识淡薄，风险管理水平低下。而最近几年，国家对房地产行业的不断宏
观调控的政策也加大了房地产风险。党的十八大以来，明确新型城镇化路线，非住宅
房地产项目开发引来新的发展机遇，与此同时，对非住宅房地产项目全过程风险管理
研究有着迫切的必要性和现实意义。

本文运用项目风险管理的基本理论，针对非住宅房地产项目开发全过程的风险管
理研究，结合中新置地公司内外部情况进行非住宅项目的风险识别、风险评价、风险
应对体系建立，从非住宅项目开发的投资决策阶段、前期开发阶段、建设施工阶段和
租售阶段分析了风险构成和风险来源。采用专家打分法和层次分析法明确风险类型的
权重，并用模糊综合评定发确定风险的隶属度，最后形成非住宅项目风险应对策略。

以中新置地公司A 项目进行了非住宅项目全过程的风险管理案例分析，为公司非住
宅项目风险管理起到实践作用。

本文采用的层次分析法和模糊综合评定法定量分析风险管理理论，将这种风险管
理手段应用到非住宅房地产行业是科学可行的，对房地产企业来说是具有普遍的指导
意义。

关键词：风险管理；非住宅项目；全过程；层次分析法；模糊综合评定法
作 者：许承荣
指导教师：张方华Abstract Research on Risk Management of CSLAND Real Estate Development about non-residence
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Research on Risk Management of CSLAND Real Estate
Development about non-residence
Abstract
In 2003 our country clearly the real estate as the national pillar industry, the real estate
industry has become a pillar of national economy, nearly 10 years the real estate industry
has rapid development, to make a greater contribution to the national At the same time in
the development of rapid, risk awareness of risk management of the weak, low level of risk
management. In recent years, the state of the real estate industry continues to the
macro-control policy is to increase the real estate risk. Since the party's eighteen, by the
new urbanization route, brings to non residential real new development opportunity, at
the same time, there is necessary and significance to study on the whole process risk
management of non residential projects.
This paper uses the basic theory of project risk management, the risk management for
non residential real estate project development process, combined with the internal and
external conditions to establish new purchase non residential project risk identification,
risk assessment, risk response system, the stage of investment decision, non residential
development project pre development stage, the construction stage and video stages are
analyzed and pose a risk to the risk source. The analysis of the expert scoring method and
weighting method clear risk types, and using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and
determine the risk of membership, finally forms the risk response strategy for non
residential project. The A project in the new land company were analyzed non residential
project the whole process of risk management, to practice for non residential project risk
management.
Analytical hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for the
quantitative analysis of risk management theory, the means that risk management applied
to non residential real estate industry is scientific and feasible, the real estate enterprises is
of universal guiding significance.
Key word: risk management; risk management; non residential projects; the whole process;
AHP; fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method
Written by:Xu Chengrong
Supervised by:Zhang Fanghua