随着科学技术的迅速发展、经济的全球化和市场需求的个性化与多样化,使

得具有易逝品特性的产品增多。易逝品是指由于产品本身的特性或目标消费群的

偏好等,使该类产品具有生产提前期长、销售周期短、期末未售出的产品残值低、

需求不确定性大等特征。然而提前期过长使得销售商对市场的需求预测不准确,

所以销售商希望通过延迟订货以减少预测误差,降低产品剩余和缺货带来的损失。

相反,制造商希望销售商提前订货以更好安排生产计划,降低生产成本。期权契

约就是一种解决具有易逝性商品订货提前期过长带来的决策不准确问题的有效的

快速响应策略。

同时,销售商为了获取更大的市场份额,不断采取降价促销的营销策略,加

之互联网的快速发展与应用,在此过程中消费者的学习能力不断地被训练,预测

市场的能力不断提高,销售商开始注意到一些消费者出现了许多策略性行为,即

等待商品降价或者消费剩余满足期望剩余时才会选择购买。消费者的策略行为给

销售商及制造商带来利润损失,很多学者开始研究策略消费者行为给供应链管理

带来的影响。

本文在前人研究期权契约和消费者策略行为的基础上,研究不确定市场环境

下销售商在一对一供应链中的最优订货策略。站在销售商快速响应消费者的角度,

考虑策略消费者与非策略消费者共同存在的市场上,运用期权契约解决制造商和

销售商提前期订货时间的矛盾以及调整销售商订货量以减少需求预测不准确带来

的损失,建立了报童问题的扩展模型,分析销售商最优初始定购量和期权订购量,

以及销售期间产品的降价幅度。然后通过实例分析得出,当策略消费者所占的比

例较大时,销售商吸引策略消费者在第一阶段购买商品将是销售商主要的利润来

源。

关键词:易逝品;策略消费者;报童模型;期权契约

ABSTRACT

With the rapid development of technology and diversification of market demand,

more and more products act like perishable products, having the characteristics of long

lead time, short lifecycle, low salvage value and especially demand uncertainty.

However, because of the long lead time and the uncertainty of the demand,

manufacturer and retailer have a conflict of interests. Manufacturers prefer retailers to

place full orders as early as possible so as to coordinate the produce plan and reduce the

cost, while retailers prefer to delay the time of order to lower the mismatch of the

demand and lower the possibility of cost because of leftover and stock out. Motivated

by this observation, in this paper we apply option mechanism to achieve the win-win

situation between the manufacturer and retailer.

Meanwhile, retailer often cuts its price in order to increase its share of the market.

For both retailer's markdown strategy and having the Internet proficiency,the consumer

is trained to develop the ability to predict the market situation and retailer's selling

strategy. Retailers are increasingly cognizant of the fact that modern consumers are

educated, sophisticated and willing to go to extraordinary lengths to purchase goods at

the lowest possible price. One common and powerful tactic consumers use to achieve

this goal is to wait to purchase items only when they are on sale or clearance, a strategy

trained by the fact that many retailers have predictable seasonal markdown pattern and

offer deep discounts. Consumers who behave in this manner are referred as strategic

consumers, and they recognize that a desired product is likely to reduce in price at some

point in time. They take these future markdowns and the availability of the product into

account when timing their purchasing decisions. Strategic behavior of consumers brings

retailer lost profits. Many scholars began to study the influence of the strategy consumer

behavior in the supply chain management.

In this paper, we have studied a simple supply chain channel that sells a seasonal

product from the prospect of retailer. We consider the case in which there is an

opportunity for retailer to adjust the order quantity within the manufacturer's reserved

capacity after demand information updating during the lead time. By taking all these

factors into consideration, we apply option contract and the twice pricing strategy in our

model to quick respond to the uncertain demand in the presence of strategic and

nonstrategic consumers in the market, and explore the optimal order quantity and

optimal price of the retailer.

Key Words: Perishable Product; Strategic Consumer; Newsboy Model; Option

Contract