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非理性对并购决策影响的研究_MBA硕士毕业范文(63页).rar

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文本描述
摘要

随着经济学的深入研究,传统经济学的“理性人”假设饱受诟病,而其关于不确定

风险条件下的决策行为经典理论——期待效用理论由于难以解释和预测许多异象也广

受质疑。20世纪50年代,赫伯特西蒙提出了 “有限理性”的概念,为行为经济学打开

了大门。1979年卡尼曼与特沃斯基提出了“前景理论”修正了期待效用理论,将行为经

济学推上了经济学主流的舞台,加速了发展的脚步。然而,行为经济学在金融、法律等

领域做了大量的研究,却在并购方面鲜有著作。本文试图通过对一个真实的并购案例的

分析,提出决策者在并购中存在非理性的假设,然后通过对大量受访者的测试验证了假

设,并运用前景理论揭示了非理性对并购决策的影响。本文同时还提出了决策理性函数

概念的假设,给出了函数形状和数学表达式。最后本文做了总结并对并购提出了避免或

缓解非理性风险的建议,并且展望了未来需要进一步研究的问题。

关键词:前景理论;并购;非理性;决策行为;决策理性函数;

ABSTRACT

With the development of economics, the hypothesis of rational man of the traditional

economics is widely criticized, and the classical theory for risk decision behaviors under the

uncertainty— Expected Utility Theory (EUT) is also questioned because it is difficult to

explain and predict many special phenomenon. In 1950s,Herbert Simon proposed the concept

of bounded rationality opens the door to behavioral economics. In 1979,Kahneman and

Tversky proposed the Prospect Theory, a new amendment to the EUT, which put tiie

behavioral economics on the economics mainstream stage also accelerating its pace of

development. However, on the contrast to finance, legal and other fields, very less research in

terms of behavioral economics was done in the Merge and Acquisition (M&A) in terms. This

article attempts to propose a hypothesis through the analysis of a real case that the presence of

irrationality of decision makers during M&A, and then based on the tests to a large number of

respondents to verify the hypothesis, and applying prospect theory reveals the impact of

irrational decision-making behavior for merger and acquisition. This article also propose a

hypothesis of the concept of rational decision-making function, simultaneously function shape

and mathematical expression are given. Finally, the summary of the article and the relevant

suggestion about how to prevent and mitigate the risk of irrationality as well as the problems

to be studied in the future is given.

Keywords: Prospect theory; Mergers and Acquisition; irrational; decision-making behavior;

rational decision-making function