财政资金缴入国库之后到实际支付这段时间沉淀于国库的存款,因时间差而

产生的余额就是国库现金。近年来,随着国库集中支付制度的发展和财政收入的

增长,资金大量沉淀在国库,造成了国库现金的闲置浪费。在这种情况下,2006

年中央国库现金管理正式启动,从2006年到2013年,仅商业银行定期存款的利

息就近500亿元,国库现金管理为中央财政增加了不少的收益。

中央国库现金管理的成功运行,引起了专家学者对如何用好地方国库闲置现

金,以及地方国库是否具备现金管理的条件等问题的思考。地方经济的发展和地

方国库现金余额的逐年增长,也使得地方政府对实施地方国库现金管理表现出积

极的态度。面对庞大的地方国库资金,如何在确保安全的前提下实现增值,成为

了当前一个迫切需要解决的问题。

笔者以管理学和经济学理论为指导,采用理论分析和实证研究相结合的方

法,对国库现金管理基础理论进行论述,在借鉴中央和国外成功做法的基础上,

结合地方国库的特点,选择随机模型测算国库最佳持有量。总结归纳出现阶段地

方国库现金管理的原则和初期的操作方式,对构建地方国库现金管理的机制提出

了自己的见解。以X市SI区为例,分析国库现金收支变动的趋势及其影响因素,

设计现金流预测表,从而实现对一定时期国库现金流的预测管理。运用随机模型

计算出SI区最佳现金持有量,并对SI区的现金管理运作模式提出建议,以期对

即将开展的地方国库现金管理提供借鉴意义。

关键词:地方国库;现金管理;现金流量

ABSTRACT

Treasuiy cash is the deposit precipitate in the state treasury, which has not yet

paid,due to the time difference between income and expenditure. In recent years, with

the development of treasury centralized payment system and the fiscal revenue growth,

a large number of funds have retained in the treasury. This phenomenon has caused

the waste of the state treasury cash. In such a situation,the central treasury cash

management officially started in 2006. From 2006 to 2013, only the interest of the

commercial bank deposits is about RMB 50 billion. Treasury cash management has

obtained a large number of revenue for the central government. The operation of the

treasury cash management had achieved good results.

The successful operation of the central treasury cash management stimulated the

consideration about how to vitalize tiie local treasury cash balance and whether the

local treasury cash balance have the condition to be operated, and so on. Because of

the rising level of the economic development and the local treasury cash balances'

increasing year by year, more and more local governments show the great interests

and positive attitude about the implementation of the local treasury management.

Facing such a large number of local treasuiy cash balances, how to improve these

treasury cash's ineome actively and steadily and not hurt the safety of treasury cash

has become an urgent problem.

The author uses the economics and management theory as the guide, and

combined with the theoretical analysis and empirical research method. Firstly, this

thesis makes a definition of concept and basic intention of treasury cash management,

and introduces the theoretical basis of treasury cash management. Secondly the thesis

analyzes the status of our local treasury cash management and explains its necessity

and feasibility. Then the thesis describes the domestic treasury cash management and

compares the treasury cash management of the United States,Canada, Britain and

France, and summarizes the advanced practice. Thirdly,according to the

characteristics of the local treasury, the thesis raises the metibod creatively that using

the stochastic model to estimate the optimal cash holdings of treasury. Then sums up

the principle and operation model of carrying out the local treasury cash management

at the present stage and puts forward the own views on the construction of mechanism

of local treasury cash management. Finally, takes the financial operation of SI district

as an example, the thesis analyzes the fluctuant trend and main affection factors of the

treasury cash flow and researches on designing a predicted diagram of treasury cash

flow. This aims at realizing the management and the prediction of the local treasury

cash flow in a particular period. Then the author estimates the optimal cash holdings

of SI district's treasury by using the stochastic model and puts forward the own

suggestions on treasury cash management model of SI district so as to provide

reference to the coming local treasury cash management.

Although the author make great effort on the research above, this paper still has

many shortcomings and defects because of the limited source of practical experience

and treasury data. So the author earnestly urges suggestions from teachers in terms of

both its depth and diversity. Thanks.

Key words: Local treasury; Cash management; Cash flow.