中文摘要
住宅产业是以生产、经营住宅（区）为最终产品的产业，住宅是居民基本生活
资料，住宅问题是重大的社会问题，保障居民的住宅权利，改善居民的居住条件，
对于促进经济发展，维护社会安定，具有不可估量的作用。世界各国都把发展住宅
产业作为本国重大决策加以研究，同时高度重视制定本国的住宅产业政策。住宅产
业政策直接关系到住宅产业的健康发展，关系到公民的切身利益和生活秩序
简单地说，住宅产业化就是采用社会化大生产的方式进行住宅的生产和经营
上世纪九十年代，我国针对国民经济增长出现持续下滑的态势和传统住宅建设供应
体系存在的诸多问题决定住宅建设要走产业化之路，同时把住宅产业培育成我国新
的经济增长点和消费热点。本文详细分析研究了我国住宅产业化的起步、发展和制
度的完善，论述了住宅产业化不仅可以解决广大城镇居民的居住问题，而且可以拉
动国民经济的总体持续快速健康增长。我国的住宅产业化进程中还蕴藏着巨大的房
地产商机
面对我国住宅产业化的整体策略，探讨了北京市房地产业现状及存在的问题
以我国加入 WTO 和北京申奥成功为重点，着重分析了影响北京市住宅市场供给和
需求的各个因素。然后建立数学模型，运用组合预测方法预测北京市未来若干年住
宅市场的有效需求，期望能够给予北京市政府部门、金融部门、房地产开发商和城
镇居民在作有关住宅的决策时提供定量的参考。最后，给出面对我国住宅产业化的
北京市住宅建设对策
关键词：房地产; 住宅产业化; 国民经济; 组合预测 ; 建设对策
Abstract
Residential industry is the industry of production and business operation of
residential quarters open to the market, housing is the basic means of livelihood of
residents, and the problem of housing is of the great importance to the society. It has
been playing a giant role to protect legal rights and improve residential conditions of
residents in promoting economic development and safeguarding social stability. The
residential industry has been regarded as important national strategy around the
globe, and much more attention has been paid to formulate relevant national policies.
Thereof the policy is directly related to the healthy development of residential
industry and the personal interests and living order of citizens.
In brief, the residence industrialization is the production and business operation
of residential houses open to the market by large-scale socialized production. Upon
the declining of national economy and many problems resulted from traditional
system of residential construction and supply, in 1990’s, the government of China
has resolved to adopted a policy of residence industrialization in residence
constructing, and at the same time has planned to cultivated residential industry to be
a new increment factor of national economy and a focus of consumption. This
dissertation aims to analyze the kickoff, development and improvement of Chinese
residential industry system, and residence industrialization not only can provide
resolutions to solve the residential problems in urban areas, but also can promote the
continuous rapid healthy increment of national economy. Much more business
opportunities of real estate have been held in store in the procedure of Chinese
residence industrialization.
The present status of real estate in Beijing and its existing and potential
problems have also been discussed in the dissertation in the face of Chinese overall
policy of residence industrialization. Various factors which affect the demand and
supply of residential market in Beijing have also been analyzed on the basis of
China’s entry into WTO and the success of application for Olympic Games, and then
mathematic models have been established and comprehensive forecasting methods
have been adopted for the forecasting of effective demand in the near future market
of residence in Beijing, with a view to supply quantitative consideration to the
authorities of government and finance, manufacturers of real estate and urban
citizens in Beijing while they try to make a decision about housing. Finally, the
construction countermeasures for residential buildings in Beijing facing to
residence industrialization of China have also been put forward.