摘 要
本论文是针对HF公司Y房地产投资项目所撰写的商业计划书。HF公司是珠海一家主
营房地产开发与经营的投资公司，现投资开发Y房地产项目，需要引进投资者解决项目
资金问题。改革开放以来，我国经济迅速发展，房地产业快速增长，已成为国民经济支
柱性产业之一，房地产业健康发展对调整经济结构，促进经济增长发挥着重要作用。房
地产业是资金密集型产业，投资周期长，投资规模大，因此，房地产业对金融市场高度
依赖。我国房地产业的融资渠道相对单一，主要来源为商业银行贷款。2007年以来，我
国出台紧缩房地产银行信贷的政策，房地产企业通过银行贷款获得资金支持难度加大，
一些非投机类优质房企的发展面临资金瓶颈。因此，势必拓宽其融资渠道。本项目即在
这种背景下，为解决融资问题，采用了国际上通行的股权融资结合信托形式进行融资。

本商业计划书主要从以下三个方面对项目进行分析。﹙1﹚项目投资环境及市场情
况分析。包括外部环境、市场需求和项目 SWOT 分析。﹙2﹚市场细分和销售计划。﹙
3﹚项目经济效益分析。分析项目的经济效益，预测项目收入，评价项目盈利能力，并
进一步分析存在风险和提出规避措施。通过市场分析可知，近年来，珠海市经济运营良
好，房地产市场需求旺盛，开发商 HF 公司和 Y 项目在当地具有较强市场竞争能力，只
要加以适当的市场发展策划，注意避开项目的劣势和威胁，通过细分市场，制定销售方
案，有步骤地将产品推出市场，同时根据各种市场反应，及时进行市场策略调整。项目
定能成功。通过项目经济预测，项目总收入为 33531 万元，财务净现值 2671 万元，项
目动态回收期为 2.73 年，财务内部收益率为 23.85%，项目盈利能力较强。项目在实施
过程中可能遇到一定的经营风险、市场风险和政策风险，但由于采取了有效的管理和一
定的控制措施，这些风险是可以降低的。根据以上分析研究成果得出结论，Y 项目投资
在经济上具有可行性，效益较高，风险适中，项目具有较好的市场前景和发展优势。

本论文的研究意义体现在对整个项目开发流程和对项目融资的分析两个方面。一方
面，通过分析本项目开发流程，避免了盲目性决策，做到清晰定位项目，合理安排技术，
准确预算资金，加快利用企业资金，既对 Y 项目的开发具有实证意义，又对其他房地产
开发项目具有参考意义。另一方面，通过分析本项目融资实施可行性，来探讨此类企业
房地产项目融资实施模式和策略，对同类型企业房地产项目融资的实施具有借鉴意义。

关键词：房地产项目；商业计划书；财务分析V
ABSTRACT
This dissertation is a business plan which is aimed at HF Company’s Y real estate
investment project. From the early days of foundation, HF Company based on the
development and the management of real estate projects, and now is investing the
development of Y real estate project. At the same time, it needs to import investors to solve
capital problem of this project. Since the reform and open, the economy of China has
developed fast. Along with the development of our country’s economy, the real estate
industry gradually becomes one of the pillar industries in the national economy. The healthy
development of the real estate industry can play an important role in adjusting the structure of
economy and bringing the prosperity of the whole national economy. The real estate is a
capital intensive industry typical of large investment, high risk, long construction period and
supply chain, and its development relies on the financial market deeply. The financial channel
of our national realty industry is too single; the main resource depends greatly on the
commercial bank loan given. Since 2007, the world economy has entered the age of high
inflation. The central government of China has issued a series of policies to reduce the
banking credit of the realty industry. It makes the realty companies more difficult to get the
capital support through the channel of bank loan given. Some high quality realty companies’
development has to face the capital bottleneck. As a result, it is imperative to broaden the
financial channels. The investment project of this dissertation is under the above background.
In order to solve the financial problem, it adopts the Private Equity combined with the trust,
which is international current to financing.
This dissertation takes the project into analysis by the following three factors. The first
one is investment environment and market analysis, including external environment, the
market demand and SWOT analysis of the project. Zhuhai has been experienced a good
economic status nowadays .The estate project is highly competitive .and need to avoid its
disadvantages and threats. The second one is market segmentation and development plan. The
planner needs to develop the project and adjust the marketing strategy by segmenting the
market and making the decision. The third one is the economic benefit of the project. The
author analyzed the economic benefits of the project and forecast its revenues. Then the
author evaluates its earning capacity and analyzes the risks. Finally the author proposes the
tactics and concludes the feasibility of the project. We have known that the business plan of Y
project is competitive under the background of a great market demand of Zhuhai’s estate
market by the market analysis. Only by implementing appropriate tactics of marketVI
development, can the project be successful. The forecast of the business plan tells us the
revenue, profit, and earning rate of this project will be 335.31 million, 26.71 million and
23.85% respectively .the project is highly profitable .The investment risk of the project will
be avoidable and decreased by implementing effective management and measures. The above
analytic study arrivals at a conclusion that the investment of Y real estate project has
feasibility in financial condition, high benefit, reasonable risk, preferable market prospective
and development superiority.
The study significance of this dissertation reflects in two parts, the one is processes of
the project’s development, the other one is the financing of the project. On one hand,
according to the analysis of the project’s development process, the blind decision-making can
be avoided, the location of the project can be vivid, the arrangement of the technology can be
reasonable, the budget of the fund can be accurate, and the use of the corporation’s fund can
be accelerated. It not only has the positive meaning in the development of Y project, but also
has reference meaning in the development of other real estate projects. On the other hand,
according to the analysis of the project’s financing feasibility, inquire into the implement
models and strategies of real estate projects’ financing for the same type of enterprises, and
has reference meaning in the acting of real estate projects’ financing for such enterprises.
Key word：Real Estate Project；Business plan；Financial analysisVII
目 录
摘 要..IV
ABSTRACT ...... V
图表清单...........X
第一章 绪 论..1
1.1 选题背景和意义 . 1
1.1.1 选题的背景.. 1
1.1.2 选题的意义.. 3
1.2 文献综述 . 4
1.2.1 国外研究文献综述.. 5
1.2.2 国内研究文献综述.. 5
1.3 研究内容与方法 . 6
1.3.1 研究的内容.. 6
1.3.2 研究的方法.. 7
第二章 HF公司Y房地产投资项目概述..........9
2.1 HF公司概况 ......... 9
2.1.1 公司的发展历程与业绩...... 9
2.1.2 公司的组织结构...... 9
2.2 Y房地产投资项目概况 . 11
2.2.1 项目的背景 11
2.2.2 项目的特色与总体规划.... 11
2.2.3 项目的投资吸引点 12
2.2.4 项目开发相关经济技术指标与进度........ 13
2.3 本章小结 ........... 15
第三章 Y房地产投资项目投资环境.16
3.1 Y房地产投资项目的外部环境分析 ..... 16
3.1.1 宏观环境分析........ 16VIII
3.1.2 珠海市 2011 年住宅市场分析...... 17
3.1.3 项目区域市场分析 20
3.2 Y房地产投资项目的内部条件分析 ..... 22
3.3 Y房地产投资项目的SWOT分析.......... 22
3.4 本章小结 ........... 23
第四章 Y房地产投资项目执行力与营销策略.........24
4.1 Y房地产投资项目执行力分析 . 24
4.1.1 项目的管理团队.... 24
4.1.2 项目的施工团队.... 25
4.2 Y房地产投资项目营销策略分析 ......... 26
4.2.1 项目的市场定位.... 26
4.2.2 项目的定价策略.... 28
4.2.3 项目的营销手段.... 29
4.2.4 项目的营销模式.... 31
4.3 本章小结 ........... 32
第五章 Y房地产投资项目资金需求与融资计划分析.........33
5.1 Y房地产投资项目资金需求分析 ......... 33
5.1.1 项目开发总投资成本估算 33
5.1.2 项目资金需求分析结果.... 35
5.2 Y房地产投资项目融资方式分析 ......... 35
5.2.1 Y房地产投资项目融资计划 .......... 36
5.2.2 Y房地产投资项目融资方式比较 .. 36
5.2.3 Y房地产投资项目融资方式确定 .. 36
5.3 本章小结 ........... 40
第六章 Y房地产投资项目财务分析与风险评价.....42
6.1 Y房地产投资项目财务分析 ..... 42
6.1.1 项目基本财务数据预测.... 42
6.1.2 项目财务指标分析与评价 49IX
6.2 Y房地产投资项目风险评价 ..... 50
6.2.1 项目盈亏平衡点分析........ 50
6.2.2 项目敏感性分析.... 51
6.2.3 项目风险规避控制对策.... 52
6.3 本章小结 ........... 52
结 论..54
参考文献..........55
攻读硕士学位期间取得的研究成果..57
致 谢..58X
图表清单
表 1-1 房地产宏观调控政策表1
图 1-1 论文结构图........7
表 2-1 恒福公司近三年主营项目情况表........9
图 2-1 恒福公司组织结构图..10
表 2-2 御水岸项目住宅设计户型......12
表 2-3 御水岸项目主要经济技术指标..........14
表 2-4 “御水岸”项目工程进度安排表......15
表 3-1 珠海市 2010-2011 年销售面积...........18
图 3-12010 年以来珠海商品住宅各月均价图..........19
图 3-22010 年以来珠海各月商品房新增供应走势图..........19
表 3-2 珠海 2011 年 6 月商品住宅，商品房待售面积同比表........20
表 3-3 “御水岸”项目同区域楼盘情况表..21
表 4-1 公司基本信息表..........24
表 4-2 公司股东结构表..........25
表 4-3 地产因子比较表..........27
表 5-1 项目开发成本估算表..34
表 5-2 项目开发费用估算表..35
表 5-3 项目融资方式比较表..36
表 5-4 项目资金筹措计划表..37
表 5-5 项目资金到位与使用计划表..38
表 5-6 项目投资款还本付利预测表..39
图 6-1 财务分析流程图..........42
表 6-1 项目销售预测表..........43
表 6-2 项目销售收入估算表..44
表 6-3 项目现金流预测表......46
表 6-4 项目销售利润预测表..48
表 6-5 项目财务指标数据表..50
表 6-6 项目敏感性分析表......51第一章 绪 论