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2010年中金UBS等机构煤炭能源钢铁等行业市场研究报告合集(25个文件).rar

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《2010年中金UBS等机构煤炭能源钢铁等行业市场研究报告合集》(25个文件).rar We expect China's oil demand to grow at 6.2% in 2010 and 9.0% in 2011. We examine the current situation from a variety of physical oil demand drivers (capital investment, domestic consumption, car sales). • While China's fiscal stimulus package may boost growth in this year, its longer-term impact should not be underestimated, especially when projects usually take a long time to complete. Hence, capital investment is likely to be strong. Meanwhile, the investment boom has encouraged job creation and strength in consumer expenditure, which in turn augmented strong consumption spending, driving up demand for domestic demand. • As a recap, the Chinese market witnessed an improved economy in 2009, thanks to the government's aggressive stimulus spending and various subsidies. Throughout this recovery period, manufacturing has seen a strong rebound, largely due to base effects and strong domestic demand. ANZ's real activity index, which tracks a composite of industrial and consumption data, reached a second record high in 4Q09. The vehicle market saw 13 million new sales last year. Steel production, an indirect measure of construction and investment activities, recorded a turnaround in 2009. Going forward, our ANZ economists expect 1Q10 GDP growth to reach a record 11.6% (YoY), with risk biased to the upside. • Our economists' forecast calls for a more proactive monetary tightening measures, going forward. Rising CPI inflation, surging export growth and housing price data suggest that China needs to pare back on its aggressive stimulus and monetary policies. (Reference: China Economics and Research – China is on the Brink of Overheating, Mar 2010) • Post this period, we question on whether employing economic tightening measures will impact China's oil demand growth. We stress-test how these demand indicators will react to credit tightening. Our analysis suggests that China's cooling measures will have limited effects on China's oil demand, bolstered by strong underlying oil demand drivers. • However, in the past two years, we note that China has implemented several policies to contain the domestic oil consumption modestly, including hikes on oil consumption tax and a reform on oil products' pricing mechanism. • In addition, according to preliminary trade data released last Saturday, Chinese imports rose sharply in Mar in part owing to price increases in global commodities (including crude). This implies that China continues to import inflation. Should further economic data suggest that inflation has accelerated and oil prices remain above US$80/bbl, we believe China's National Development Reform Commission will find another reason to raise gasoline and diesel prices – that is, to contain inflation.