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2010年10月美林中国清洁能源专题研究报告(全英文)(29页).rar

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《2010年10月美林中国清洁能源专题研究报告(全英文)》(29页).rar Findings from BofAML China Clean Energy Conference BofA Merrill Lynch hosted a China Clean Energy conference in Hong Kong on Oct 12-13. We summarize in this report the comments made by PRC Ministry of Environmental Protection think tank adviser, the wind power, nuclear and solar companies and renewable energy consultants who attended this conference. 4Q09, early 2010 solar outlook positive Commentary from solar companies confirms that 4Q09 is tracking better than expected with minimal seasonality impact in 4Q, consistent with our observation from the Hamburg solar industry conference we recently attended. PRC solar feed in tariff (FiT) rollout timing Most corporates and industry consultants believe the Chinese government is serious about a FiT of solar and it could be announced as soon as before the Copenhagen conference or the National People's Congress meeting in March '10. The rollout of the key FiT could be delayed by issues that need to be resolved: (1) optimal reference rate for FiT that will promote sustained profitability, (2) larger sample size of generation data from different region/sunlight resources, (3) technical bottlenecks such as grid connectivity and net-metering mechanism. Our most and least favored PRC solar stocks Our favored solar names are Trina Solar (TSL, US$35.2, C-1-9, PO: US$40.00) and Suntech Power (STP, US$15.81, C-1-9, PO: US$22.00 and least favored are JA Solar (JASO, US$4.18, C-3-9, PO: US$3.50) and LDK Solar (LDK, US$8.44, C-3-9, PO: US$7.60). Beneficiaries of China's 10 fold nuclear capacity expansion China's nuclear capacity rapid growth towards 100GW by 2020 will likely drive up demand for uranium starting 2011 and uranium price as a result. China will require 18,000 tons of uranium by 2020 and 16,000 tons will be satisfied by imports with CNNC International as a key vehicle just beginning to look at imports. We believe Areva, Cameco, Paladin, BHP and Rio Tinto are likely to benefit. Equipment value chain is capable of supporting