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2010年2季度中国金属与矿产行业分析报告_汇丰银行(80页).rar

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《2010年2季度中国金属与矿产行业分析报告》汇丰银行(80页).rar Tightening fears a buying opportunity as 2Q peak demand season approaches  Triggered by surging prices, domestic iron ore output is making a comeback  Reiterate OW steel and coal shares, stay cautious on base metal exposures Chinese supply could crash the iron ore party – positive for steel. As imported prices surge towards USD150/t (cfr), we focus in this Monitor on China's domestic iron ore miners. Squeezed out by low iron ore prices last year, domestic iron ore mines supplied less than 30% of China's steel mill requirements. However, at current imported prices nearly all domestic mines are profitable, which we estimate could unleash c220mt (at 63% Fe) of supply this year. Equivalent to about one-third of last year's imports, this additional supply could bring China's self sufficiency back to historic levels of c50% and place downward pressure on iron ore prices. In this scenario, profit margins for steel mills may benefit from a move to shorter-dated, market-based iron....